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NFI-ODCE Performance Attribution Methodology NCREIF Members Webinar

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1 NFI-ODCE Performance Attribution Methodology NCREIF Members Webinar
National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries NCREIF presents NFI-ODCE Performance Attribution Methodology NCREIF Members Webinar March 15, 2017

2 NFI-ODCE Performance Attribution Methodology Webinar Agenda
Calculate quarterly fund impacts using the Exclusion Method Calculate quarterly property Contribution to Return (CTR) Multi-period linking methods for each Ex-returns for fund level impacts Link-backwards method for property CTR Questions? Please submit during the presentation and we will address at the end

3 NFI-ODCE Performance Attribution Overview
Gross of Fee Return Property Unleveraged Returns Property Type/Subtype Region/Division/CBSA Leverage Impacts Principal Balance (property & fund) Mark-to-Market (property & fund) Ownership / Fund Vehicle Structure Impacts JV Deal Structure Cash Balances Fund Costs Other Property Returns and CTR Returns Incremental Impacts

4 Reconciliation of Quarterly P&L Property to Fund
Current Quarter P&L Unleveraged Property P&L NCREIF Property Data Submission ODCE Fund Index Return Cash and Fund Structure Leverage and Deal Structure Unleveraged Property Returns ODCE Fund Index Return Cash and Fund Structure Leverage and Deal Structure Unleveraged Property Returns Ownership Structure Attributes P&L NCREIF Additional Data Submission NFI-ODCE Index P&L NCREIF Fund Data Submission

5 Executive Summary Recent Four Quarters (Page 4 of Report)
Calculate quarterly impacts using the Exclusion Method Calculate multi-period impacts by (i) linking the ex-returns derived from the Exclusion Method and (ii) subtracting the calculated ex-returns from the linked actual NFI-ODCE return

6 Quarterly Fund-level Impacts
What is the IMPACT of an ATTRIBUTE on the overall TOTAL RETURN? Each ATTRIBUTE is evaluated independently (that is, in isolation) of all others The impact of one ATTRIBUTE does not have any effect on the other ATTRIBUTES Therefore, the order of the calculation for each ATTRIBUTE does not matter Simple Three-Step Process! Step 1 Remove the effect of the “attribute” from both the numerator and denominator Results in the “Ex-Numerator” and the “Ex-Denominator” Step 2 Calculate the “Ex-Return” by dividing the “Ex-Numerator” by the “Ex-Denominator” Step 3 Compare the calculated Ex-Return to the actual NFI-ODCE return (that is, NFI-ODCE Return minus Ex-Return) Result Negative difference in Step 3 means the “attribute” had a negative effect Positive difference in Step 3 means the “attribute” had a positive effect

7 Fund-level Impacts Analysis 2016q4
3 Description ODCE Ex-Numerator Adjustment ODCE Ex-Denominator Adjustment Numerator or Ex-Numerator Denominator or Ex-Denominator Return% or Ex-Return% Calculated Impact% 4 Prop Contribution Share 3,194,866,293 204,161,299,251 1.56% 5 Prop Leveraged at Principal Bal (344,343,332) (35,891,853,097) 3,826,682,979 200,848,699,449 1.96% 0.15% 6 Prop Leveraged w/ Debt MtM 582,847,063 (95,276,626) 3,243,835,916 200,943,976,074 1.82% 0.29% 7 Fund Leveraged at Principal Bal (92,329,677) (9,867,720,089) 3,574,669,324 174,824,566,441 2.04% 0.07% 8 Fund Leveraged w/ Debt MtM 226,215,963 3,348,453,362 1.98% 0.13% 9 Acquisitions (partial period) 46,303,473 1,673,690,906 3,436,036,174 163,283,155,446 2.10% 0.01% 10 Other Investments 77,497,072 4,351,232,937 3,404,842,575 160,605,613,415 2.12% -0.01% 11 Cash Balances 4,939,933 5,408,902,453 3,477,399,714 159,547,943,899 2.18% -0.07% 12 Other Assets and Liabilities - (1,923,582,401) 3,482,339,647 166,880,428,754 2.09% 0.02% 13 Fund Costs (31,179,653) 3,513,519,301 164,956,846,352 2.13% -0.02% 14 Joint Venture Deal Structuring (146,042,140) 3,628,381,787 2.20% -0.09% 15 Other (41,422,028) 3,523,761,675 2.05% 0.06% 16 Total Return Gross of Fee 2.11%

8 Cash Balances Impact for 2016q4
D E F G H 3 Description ODCE Ex-Numerator Adjustment ODCE Ex-Denominator Adjustment Numerator or Ex-Numerator Denominator or Ex-Denominator Return% or Ex-Return% Calculated Impact% 11 Cash Balances 4,939,933 5,408,902,453 3,477,399,714 159,547,943,899 2.18% -0.07% 16 Total Return Gross of Fee 3,482,339,647 164,956,846,352 2.11% Row 16 = NFI-ODCE Cell E16 = NFI-ODCE numerator Cell F16 = NFI-ODCE denominator Row 11 = Cash Balances Cell C11 = interest income on cash balances Cell D11 = average cash balance during the quarter Cell E11 = NFI-ODCE numerator less the interest income Cell F11 = NFI-ODCE denominator less the average cash balances Cell G11 = Ex-Return for cash balances (that is, Cell E11/Cell F11) Cell G11 = return if the cash balances did not exist (all else held constant!) Cell H11 = impact of cash balances % shows the negative impact of cash on total return!

9 Leverage Impact for 2016q4 A B C D E F G H I J 19 Description ODCE Ex-Numerator Adjustment ODCE Ex-Denominator Adjustment Numerator or Ex-Numerator Denominator or Ex-Denominator Return% or Ex-Return% Calculated Impact% Amt : Diff Diff : Amts 20 Total Holistic Leverage 372,390,017 (45,854,849,811) 3,109,949,630 210,811,696,163 1.48% 0.64% 0.70% -0.06% 21  REPORT PRESENTATION  22 Prop Leveraged at Principal Bal (344,343,332) (35,891,853,097) 3,826,682,979 200,848,699,449 1.96% 0.21% 0.15% 23 Prop Leveraged w/ Debt MtM 582,847,063 (95,276,626) 3,243,835,916 200,943,976,074 1.82% 0.29% 24 Property Leverage 238,503,731 (35,987,129,722) 0.50% 0.44% 25 26 Fund Leveraged at Principal Bal (92,329,677) (9,867,720,089) 3,574,669,324 174,824,566,441 2.04% 0.07% 27 Fund Leveraged w/ Debt MtM 226,215,963 - 3,348,453,362 1.98% 0.13% 28 Fund Leverage 133,886,286 0.20% Four individual sub-components Row 20 shows “Holistic Leverage” of 0.64% (Cell H20) = NFI ODCE actual return of 2.11% minus the ex-return of 1.48% Rows 22 to 28 calculate property and fund leverage of 0.50% (Cell H24) and 0.20% (Cell H28) Sum of Cell H24 and Cell H28 equals 0.70% cell I20 , which is different than Holistic Leverage Difference of -0.06% Cell J20 is booked to Property Leverage Principal Balance (Cell I22)

10 Other Impacts 2016q4 A B C D E F G H 3 14
Description ODCE Ex-Numerator Adjustment ODCE Ex-Denominator Adjustment Numerator or Ex-Numerator Denominator or Ex-Denominator Return% or Ex-Return% Calculated Impact% 14 Joint Venture Deal Structuring (146,042,140) 3,628,381,787 164,956,846,352 2.20% -0.09% 15 Other (41,422,028) 3,523,761,675 2.05% 0.06% 16 Total Return Gross of Fee 3,482,339,647 2.11% For report purposes, JV Deal Structuring is combined with Other. Other (Row 15) consists of various items including; transactions that NCREIF does not capture post property dispositions, investment level items not booked at property level, cash flow timing differences between property and fund level return formulas, interaction or residual resulting from the Exclusion Method Other (Row 15) was +/- 1 bp for the first three quarters. As NCREIF attempts to reconcile each NFI-ODCE fund to a P&L difference of no greater than 3 bps, Other should be a minor adjustment and generally falls with +/- 5 bps.

11 Multi-period Fund Impacts by Linking Ex-returns
H I J 32 Geometric Linking Returns + Impacts Impact Calculation 33 Attribute 2016q4 2016q3 2016q2 2016q1 1 Yr Result in Column I 34 Prop Ownership Share Return 1.56% 1.88% 2.15% 2.12% 7.94% 35 Prop Leveraged at Principal Balance Ex-return 1.96% 1.89% 1.93% 1.99% 8.00% 0.76% 8.77%-8.00% 36 Prop Leveraged w/ Debt MtM 1.82% 2.03% 2.23% 8.57% 0.19% 8.77%-8.57% 37 Fund Leveraged at Principal Balance 2.04% 2.00% 2.06% 2.11% 8.47% 0.29% 8.77%-8.47% 38 Fund Leveraged w/ Debt MtM 1.98% 2.17% 8.77% 0.00% 8.77%-8.77% 39 Acquisitions (partial period) 2.10% 2.02% 2.19% 8.74% 0.02% 8.77%-8.74% 40 Other Investments 2.07% 2.16% -0.01% 41 Cash Balances 2.18% 2.13% 2.20% 9.03% -0.26% 8.77%-9.03% 42 Other Assets and Liabilities 2.09% 8.67% 0.10% 8.77%-8.67% 43 Fund Costs 2.21% 8.86% -0.09% 8.77%-8.86% 44 Joint Venture Deal Structuring 2.25% -0.27% 45 Other 2.05% 8.70% 0.07% 8.77%-8.70% 46 Total Return Gross of Fee Geometric linking: (1+Q4 return%) * (1+Q3 return%) * (1+Q2 return%) * (1+Q1 return%)-1 Note: For periods greater than 1 year, annualize the Ex-Return and the NFI-ODCE actual return and then compare the two to determine the annualized impact

12 Property Sector Contribution to Return
Property Sectors can be Property Types, Sub-types, Regions, Divisions, Life-Cycles, CBSAs, or any combination thereof Weights x Returns = Contribution to Return Weight = Unleveraged Property-Level Denominator at Legal Contribution Share% Sector A weight Sector A return Sector A Contribution To Return Sector C weight Sector C return Sector C Contribution to Return Sector B weight Sector B return Sector B Contribution To Return Sum of Sector Contributions to Return equals the overall Property Return

13 Quarterly Property Sector Contribution to Return (Page 4 of Report)
The 1 year CTR for Apartment calculated on the next slide using the link-backwards method ODCE Quarter End iname Benchmark Weight Benchmark Return Benchmark CTR% 12/31/2016 ODCE_T_A 25.21% 1.20% 0.30% ODCE_T_I 13.14% 2.85% 0.37% ODCE_T_O 38.46% 1.32% 0.51% ODCE_T_R 19.23% 1.59% 0.31% ODCE_T_H 0.82% 0.22% 0.00% ODCE_T_L 0.49% 0.95% ODCE_T_X 2.66% 2.64% 0.07% ODCE_TOT 100.00% 1.56% Property sector details are provided in the excel spreadsheet that is part of the NFI-ODCE PA product package. Sum of each sector CTR% equals the total return of 1.56%

14 Link-backwards Property Sector Contribution to Return
Derived for illustrative purposes only as 1.75% / 6.94% Apt used as an example A B C D E F G H I J 3 Quarter End Iname ODCE Benchmark Weight Benchmark Return Benchmark CTR% Cum ODCE Return Column G Formula Cum Apt CTR Column I Formula 4 3/31/2016 _T_A 25.20% 1.85% 0.47% =F4 5 _TOT 100.00% 2.12% =(1+F5)-1 6 6/30/2016 25.14% 1.90% 0.48% 0.95% =(1+G5)*F6+I4 7 2.15% 4.32% =(1+F7)*(1+G5)-1 8 9/30/2016 1.82% 0.46% 1.43% =(1+G7)*F8+I6 9 1.88% 6.28% =(1+F9)*(1+G7)-1 10 12/31/2016 25.21% 1.20% 0.30% 1.75% =(1+G9)*F10+I8 11 1.56% 7.94% =(1+F11)*(1+G9)-1 Link-backwards compounds the current quarter CTR by the cumulative property level return that is then added to the prior quarter cumulative CTR

15 Annual Property Sector Contribution to Return
Sum of each sector CTR% equals the total return of 7.94% Note: This example is only a 1 year period. For periods greater than 1 year, the CTR results will be calculated on a cumulative basis and then must be annualized using a proportion of the ODCE annualized return to the ODCE cumulative return Annualized Sector CTR =Ratio 𝑥 𝑪𝒖𝒎𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝑺𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓 𝑪𝑻𝑹 Ratio = 𝒂𝒏𝒏𝒖𝒂𝒍𝒊𝒛𝒆𝒅 𝒖𝒏𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆𝒅 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒕𝒚 𝒓𝒆𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒏 𝒄𝒖𝒎𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒖𝒏𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆𝒅 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒕𝒚 𝒓𝒆𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒏

16 NFI-ODCE Performance Attribution Methodology Recap
Four main calculations used in ODCE Performance Attribution; 1) Quarterly fund level impacts using the exclusion method 2) Multi-period linking of quarterly fund-level impacts using ex-returns 3) Quarterly property-level contribution to return using weights and returns 4) Multi-period linking of quarterly property-level contribution to return using the link-backwards method.

17 NFI-ODCE Performance Attribution Methodology
The End! Any Questions?


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