1. Structural change in the automotive industry – dealing with the social consequences

2. Technological change leading to a new paradigm
Electrification
Automated and connected cars
Digitalisation of production
Mobility services

3. Impact on the value chain
Borders between automotive sector and IT sector have started to blur
Information technology will penetrate all stages of the supply chain
Data as new raw material
Mechanical skills replaced by digital skills
In a later stage also merger between automotive industry and energy industry/transport services
New entrants: mobility providers, energy companies, battery producers, IT- companies
Not all companies can afford the huge investments in R&D for alternative powertrains (as it is still not clear when the economic return will happen)
All this can lead to a desintegration of the automotive value chain

4. Electronic components have increased from 20% in 2004 to 40% in 2015 in conventional cars, in Evs they repreesent 75%
Value added will shift to digital services: mobility services, navigation, entertainment, social media, connections with other cars/road infrastructure
Digital platforms for e-commerce, autonomous driving, automated production systems, connected vehicles, navigation and car sharing are expected to capture 30 tot 40% of automotive value chains over time
New market for smart transportation systems: new toll systems, new traffic control systems,
Shift of value added from OEM’s to other parts of the supply chain
End of diesel?
Impact of environmental regulation/mobility services on sales figures

5. Shifts in value added mean shifts in employment
Impact of digitalisation: less routine jobs, more IT specialists
Electric power train contains 200 components, a conventional powertrain: 1200
No exhaust system, oil pump, fuel pump, water pump, starter, catalysts, transmission
1 employee can produce 212 internal combustion engines per year or 1500 electric engines
Electric cars are easier to maintain:
Electric cars have almost no moving parts
Electric motor has only one moving part: the shaft which is pretty reliable and requires no maintenance
No replacement of components as water pump, alternator; no change of oil
Automated cars can’t crash:
no need for body repair shops anymore
Shift of jobs and value added from OEM’s to specialised suppliers
No need for showrooms because of internet driven sales process
Impact self-driving cars on sector of transport services

6. Alternative job opportunities
Energy infrastructure: increased demand for electricity, smart grids
Energy efficiency
Charging infrastructure
Smart roads
New digital jobs all along the supply chain
Mobility services (but need to regulate the sharing economy)
Components for connected/automated cars: sensors, lidars, radar, complex data processing
Developing the circular economy around cars?
New materials, battery-technology
More jobs in R&D and engineering
Challenge
new jobs:
Are created somewhere else
At another moment
And require other skillsets
than the jobs that will disappear
Most of the people made redundant will probably have to accept a job of lower quality: precarious jobs in services (cleaning, logistics, hospitality,...)

7. Dealing with structural change in a socially responsible way
Make disruptive change socially progressive, avoid mass redundancies and the decline of automotive regions, find a solution for each worker affected
A middle class of industrial workers created by the second industrial revolution is disappearing, challenge will be to create new quality jobs for this group
Make the S-curve for uptake of new products more linear in order to reduce the social costs of transitions: not only planning security for industry, also for working class families
Industrial policy that has the ambition to
Remain present in the current value chain as long as possible/needed
Builds the new value chains for alternative powertrains
Maintain the strong European export position (based on upmarket conventional cars)
Promote industrial collaboration, strategic alliances as a way
to share costs of R&D and investments
To enter new value chains
Support to automotive SMEs in
Redefining their value chain positioning
Redirect their core competencies to other fields of business (in or out the automotive industry
Create new job opportunities in the circular economy connected to the automotive supply chain (recycling, re-manufacuring, re-use)

8. Organize a smooth transition from one job to another
Ensure employability of the workforce: LLL, recognition of informal competences, organization of the transferability of skills, e-Learning
Promotion of internal mobility: upskilling the existing workforce to the jobs of the future in the automotive industry
Organize a smooth transition from one job to another
outplacement, employment cells, tailor-made training programmes, job search assistance
While maintaining a labour contract/income
Establish a culture of social dialogue at all levels (company, sector, regional, national) as a key element for timely anticipating change and to avoid social disputes
Respect for regulations on collective redundancies and information and consultation
Exchange of good practices regarding anticipating and managing change

9. Extending scope of the Globalisation Adjustment Fund
Making the most of the ESIFs to support the employability of the workforce and to re-train those whose job is at risk
Extending scope of the Globalisation Adjustment Fund
to restructuring resulting from the decarbonisation of non-ETS sectors
Include regional reconversion programmes
Increase level of support:
income support during retraining,
technical assistance,
amount of the financial contribution of the EGF (60%)
! For the ETS sectors: Innovation Fund, Modernisation Fund and Just Transition Fund (proposed by the EP)

10. Regional conversion strategies
Regional task forces composed of all stakeholders to develop strategies for the future
Deployment of smart specialisation strategies
Making re-training and re-employment a shared responsibility of all: companies, social partners, regional development agencies, public employment services, authorities
Promotion of entrepreneurship, start-ups