1. The new Treausury Dynamic Microsimulation Model
T-DYMM 2.0
Biagio Quattrocchi
IESS – Intermediate Workshop
Rome - 27th of November, 2015

2. Outline A short history of T-DYMM project
Structure and modules of T-DYMM 2.0

3. General characteristics
The first release of T-DYMM draws from MIDAS-IT (ISAE)
Following O’Donoghue’s (2001) taxonomy, T-DYMM presents the following features:
It’s a dynamic ageing DMSM;
It’s a discrete time model;
The ageing process is probabilistic;
It’s a closed model.

4. Old structure of T -DYMM
Four modules: 1
Demographic 2
Labour market 3
Pension 4
Fiscal (external)

5. The new release: T – DYMM 2.0

6. The new release: T – DYMM 2.0
Processed on (free) platform Liam 2;
It keeps O’Donoghue’s taxonomy;
Completely departs from MIDAS-IT estimates

7. Demographic and education module
Process
Description
Alignment
1. Alive
A. Is she/he alive or not?
B. Sex?
Sex: Istat
2. Birth
People born in probabilistic way
AWG - projections (2015)
Module 1
3. Education
A. Dependent on mother/father education.
B. Compulsory, upper secondary and university levels.
Univ. and Comp. : Istat
4. Marriage Market
A. In a couple/ married.
B. Divorced. …

8. Labour market module

9. Pension module

10. Pension schemes Names Tipology Eligibility Age Social contributions
economic
Old age 1
Notional Defined Contribution
63 years
>= 20 years
2.8 * Assegno sociale
Old age 2
&
Defined Benefit
66 years
1.5*Assegno sociale
[only for NDC]
Old age 3
70 years
>=5 years
[only for DB]
Seniority
(M)
>=42 years+1month
(F)
>=41 years+1month

11. Other simulated benefits
Survivor’s pension;
“Integrazione al minimo”;
“Assegno sociale”;
Disability pension.

12. Sub-Module: Private pensions

13. Sub-Module: Private pensions
Participation
Individual attendance has been estimated with logistic regression;
Individual payment has been estimated in a deterministic way.
Contribution

14. Sub-Module: Private pensions
Return rate adopted
Names
Government bond
Actual data
Real implicit rate on public debt
[AWG ]
GDP real growth
Corporate bond +
Spread
Stocks
Real interest rate –
Mean
Mean

15. Tax Module TAX rules Income - Social contributions
Private pension contributions =
Taxable income
IRPEF
Deduction [“lav. Dip”, “lav. Aut”, pens., family]
Net income

16.
Il progetto IESS è finanziato dal Programma per l’Occupazione e la Solidarietà Sociale dell’Unione Europea – PROGRESS ( ).
Le informazioni contenute in questo documento riflettono solamente le posizioni dell’autore. La Commissione Europea non può essere considerata in alcun modo responsabile dell’uso che può essere fatto di quanto in esso contenuto.