1. 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell:
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Winter 2016
January 26, 2016
Response to Heating, Feedbacks: How does the Earth’s climate respond to an increase of carbon dioxide? If the Earth’s surface warms a little bit, does the Earth respond by cooling or by enhancing the warming? Role of ice, ocean, and the Arctic, abrupt climate change.

2. Class Information and News
Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16
Record of course
Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
A tumbler site to help me remember
Note New Assignment

3. Resources and Recommended Reading
TED Video and Education on Feedbacks
Wikipedia on Feedbacks
Soden and Held: Feedbacks in Climate Models
Lindzen and Hou: The Iris Effect

4. Mind Map / Brainstorming

5. Outline: Class 5, Winter 2016 Balance and Altering Balance Feedbacks
System
Unique
Feedbacks
Alter balance: Recover?
Alter balance: Fall?
Alter balance: New Balance?
In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard
Weather
Climate
Climate change?
Response to Heating, Feedbacks: How does the Earth’s climate respond to an increase of carbon dioxide? If the Earth’s surface warms a little bit, does the Earth respond by cooling or by enhancing the warming? Role of ice, ocean, and the Arctic, abrupt climate change.

6. BALANCE

7. Radiation Balance Figure In this figure out = in
This is a figure where things are in balance. What goes out = what comes in.

8. BALANCE (National Geographic)

9. Lynx and Hare: Predator Prey

10. Wolf- Moose: For Example Isle Royale NP

11. Artist’s View of Ecosystem
Browse in blance
Disease, cutting down
Storm
Recovery in different
How might the balance change? 1)
2) from weather?
3) from climate?
Isle Royale: Wolf-Moose Climate Change (Example of Scenario Planning)

12. So what matters? Changes in the sun THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING
Things that change reflection
Things that change absorption
When we think of mitigation of climate change, managing or controlling warming, we really only have two things to think about, things that change absorption and things that change reflection.
If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface.

13. Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al
Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009) In this figure out does not = in
In this figure what goes out does not equal what goes in: The Earth is warming. The amount of warming is about 1 out of 340

14. Balance: Markets and Economics
What does the Federal Reserve do?
Markets (How do we watch movies?)
1950
1970
1990
2000
2016
Movies
Movies on TVs
Videocassettes
DVDs
Blockbuster, Netflix, RedBox
Streaming

15. Feedbacks
When you think of feedback what is your first thought?

16. Supervisor, professor, adviser
Changes in your environment
Unpleasant noises in an auditorium
Music: Unwanted? Wanted?

17. Problem Solving Brings Focus to System
System (Dictionary Definitions):
a set of connected things or parts forming a complex whole
a set of interacting or interdependent components forming an integrated whole
has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection
Systems Engineering: study, understanding (analysis), design, management of systems

18. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Net
+3.5
What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO2?
Movement of carbon dioxide by burning
Millions of Years

19. Feedbacks from Increased Carbon Dioxide?

20. More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere
FEEDBACKS ....
The idea that one thing causes a second thing to happen.
That second thing then does something to the first thing
It damps it, negative feedback
It amplifies it, positive feedback
Technical Reference: Soden and Held

21. Feedback
Definition
Feedback occurs when outputs of a system are "fed back" as inputs to the system
Negative feedback regulates the system
Positive feedback causes system to
Implode
Explode

22. We perturb the system – how does it respond?
What happens when we perturb the system? Is it stable or unstable?
Feedbacks – are they positive or negative?

23. The Earth System: Feedbacks 1 Infrared Proportional to Temperature
SURFACE
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
ATMOSPHERE
(infrared)
Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same
Infrared emission is proportional to temperature
Temperature increases  emission increases
This is key to stabilizing the Earth’s climate!

24. Let’s think about Temperature and Moisture
If you were becoming a forest fire fighter
If you were developing a new clothes dryer

25. Holding Moisture vs Temperature
From Engineering Tool Box

26. Temperature and Moisture in Air
Cold
Wet
Hot
Wet
Temperature
Think of something that benefits from hot and wet. Something that benefits from hot and dry.
Something that is hurt by hot and wet. Something that is hurt by hot and dry.
Where does salience come in?
Cold
Dry
Hot
Dry

27. Moisture in Air vs Greenhouse Effect
Not physical
Warmer
Moisture
Think of something that benefits from hot and wet. Something that benefits from hot and dry.
Something that is hurt by hot and wet. Something that is hurt by hot and dry.
Where does salience come in?
Cooler
Not Physical

28. CO2 Warming
Increases Temperature
Increases Moisture
Increases Greenhouse

29. The Earth System: Feedbacks 2 Water Vapor
When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas, will be in the atmosphere
Higher temperature increases evaporation from land and ocean
Higher temperature allows air to hold more water
Increase of water increases thickness of blanket – increases temperature more
This could runaway!
Natural limit because of condensation  clouds, rain?
Compensating circulation changes?
Think deserts …
SURFACE
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
ATMOSPHERE
(infrared)

30. Temperature and Ice/Snow
More Ice
Temperature
Think of something that benefits from hot and wet. Something that benefits from hot and dry.
Something that is hurt by hot and wet. Something that is hurt by hot and dry.
Where does salience come in?
Less Ice

31. Ice/Snow and Reflection
Increased Reflection
Ice Snow
Think of something that benefits from hot and wet. Something that benefits from hot and dry.
Something that is hurt by hot and wet. Something that is hurt by hot and dry.
Where does salience come in?
Decreased Reflection

32. Ice/Snow and Absorption
Increased Absorption
Decreased Ice/Snow ?
Increased Absorption
Increased Ice/Snow ?
Ice Snow
What is revealed by ice melting?
Decreased Absorption
Decreased Ice/Snow ?
Decreased Absorption
Increased Ice/Snow ?

33. The Earth System: Feedbacks 3 Ice – Reflection (Albedo)
When it gets warmer less ice
Less ice means less reflection  warmer
Warmer means less ice
This could runaway!
Cooler works the other way  ice-covered
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
ICE

34. What happens with clouds?

35. The Earth System: Feedbacks 4 Clouds?
Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the sign of their impact
Warmer  more water  more clouds
More clouds mean more reflection of solar  cooler
More clouds mean more infrared to surface  warmer
More or less clouds?
Does this stabilize?
Water in all three phases essential to stable climate
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
(infrared)
SURFACE

36. Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback
Warming and Cooling Possible
This is where much of the discussion about scientific uncertainty resides.
How clouds change has been much argued.
The Iris Effect?

37. The Earth System: Feedbacks 5 Something with the Ocean?
Is there something with the ocean and ice?
Warming ocean temperatures?
Ice sheets melting decreases ocean salinity (density)
Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere
Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean
North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very important to the climate
Think Gulf Stream
Think climate and people and economy
Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate?
Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

38. The Earth System: Feedbacks 6 Something with the Land?
Is there something with the land and ice/snow?
Warming land temperatures?
Snow cover decreases reflection on land?
Tundra, Arctic very important to climate stability
Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate?
Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

39. Earth System: Ice SUN ICE:
Very important to reflection of solar radiation
Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise)
Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice)
Ice impacts both radiative balance and water – oceans and water resources on land. .
Large “local” effects at pole.
Large global effects through ocean circulation and permafrost melting.
Might change very quickly.
CLOUD-WORLD
ATMOSPHERE
OCEAN
LAND
ICE
(cryosphere)

40. The Earth System: ICE (Think a little more about ice)
non-polar
glaciers
and
snow
polar
(Greenland)
(Antarctica)
sea-ice
Impacts regional water supply, agriculture, etc.
Solar reflection, Ocean-atmosphere heat exchange
Solar reflection,
Ocean density,
Sea-level rise
(Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)

41. Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback
Some carry away messages
The Earth is at a complex balance point
That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases.
Too warm could run away to “greenhouse” vapor
Too cold run away to “snowball” ice
Is there something in all of this that changes the sign; namely, that CO2 warming will be compensated by more cooling?
Is Earth a “regulated” system?
Have you heard of Gaia Hypothesis?

42. Feedbacks
Ice-albedo, water vapor feedback are positive and definitive.
Feedbacks associated with melting in the Arctic are largely positive.
(WWF, Literature Assessment, 2009)
The only potentially negative feedback is associated with clouds, which is observed.
Complex role of particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere.
Theoretical and observational investigation concludes that feedbacks are substantially linear and positive.
(Roe and Baker, Science, 2007)

43. Class Exercise: Weather and Climate
Case Study: Winter storm that is happening now.

44. Temperature and Moisture in Air
Cold
Wet
Hot
Wet
Average Temperature
Think of something that benefits from hot and wet. Something that benefits from hot and dry.
Something that is hurt by hot and wet. Something that is hurt by hot and dry.
Where does salience come in?
Cold
Dry
Hot
Dry

45. Summary: Class 5, Winter 2016
Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system”
Unique and stable
Prone to natural change
With stable input?
With varying input?
Response to Heating, Feedbacks: How does the Earth’s climate respond to an increase of carbon dioxide? If the Earth’s surface warms a little bit, does the Earth respond by cooling or by enhancing the warming? Role of ice, ocean, and the Arctic, abrupt climate change.

46. Summary: Class 5, Winter 2016
Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system”
Unique and stable
Prone to natural change
With stable input?
With varying input?
Response to Heating, Feedbacks: How does the Earth’s climate respond to an increase of carbon dioxide? If the Earth’s surface warms a little bit, does the Earth respond by cooling or by enhancing the warming? Role of ice, ocean, and the Arctic, abrupt climate change.

47. Outline: Class 5, Winter 2016 Balance and Altering Balance Feedbacks
System
Unique
Feedbacks
Alter balance: Recover?
Alter balance: Fall?
Alter balance: New Balance?
In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard
Weather
Climate
Climate change?
Response to Heating, Feedbacks: How does the Earth’s climate respond to an increase of carbon dioxide? If the Earth’s surface warms a little bit, does the Earth respond by cooling or by enhancing the warming? Role of ice, ocean, and the Arctic, abrupt climate change.

48. Some key words so far:
Absorption
Reflection
Balance
Temperature to zero degrees
CO2 and Temperature Correlation
Societal Impacts (LIA vs MWP)
Conservation Calculating Budgets