1. Does new business formation reflect entrepreneurial intentions?
Jerzy Cieslik – Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland
André van Stel – Trinity College Dublin, Ireland & Kozminski University

2. Motivation
Entrepreneurial intentions literature (TPB - Ajzen, 1991; EEM - Shapero and Sokol, 1982) has led to a ‘stylized fact’:
Entrepreneurial intentions predict entrepreneurial action, in the form of new venture formation, and more specifically, new growth-oriented venture formation (Levie and Autio, 2013)
However, radical changes in the economy since the 1990s call into question this causal direction, as motives for detting up business orgaanization are quite diverse
This conceptual paper addresses the research question: How does intention to be self-employed differ from intention to create a venture (organization)?” (Bird 2015), and
The related question: What is the proportion of businesses formed with truly entrepreneurial intentions in the total numer of new registrations?
Illustration by means of data base measuring growth intentions of starting (solo) self-employed in the Targowek district of Warsaw

4. Literature
New venture formation is typically regarded the operationalization of entrepreneurial intentions (Shepherd et al., 2015)
However, intentions to become self-employed are not the same as intentions to create a new business entity (Kolvereid, 2016; Bird, 2015). Many self-employed do not use a (physical) business organization but rather operate informally.
Three motives may play a role forming self-employment intentions versus ‘classic’ entrepreneurial intentions (new venture formation):
- economic motive
- growth ambitions (including innovation)
- autonomy

5. Recent trends in business formation
Starting a company not necessarily a life path change
Business registration relatively easy
In most cases business not separated from personal life (sole proprietorships, partnerships
Proliferation of „intermediary forms”
Combining employment with own business (hybrid entrepreneurship)
Taking advantages of flexible work arrangements (dependent entrepreneurship)
Increased share of freelancers (solo entrepreneurs)
(EU average 56% in some countries exeeding 80%)

6. Empirical analysis
Ongoing questionnaire survey among newly registered small business establishments in the Targówek district of Warsaw during May 2015 – December 2016 (1462 respondents). All are solo establishments at the time of start-up.
How important are growth intentions relative to self-employment intentions?
What share of new-firm activity can be considered a reflection of entrepreneurial intentions in a narrow sense (i.e., growth intentions)?

8. Composition of the population start-ups taking into account types of entrepreneurial career intentions and expansion plans
Self-employment as career choice
Staff recruitment plans No
Yes
Self-employment as exclusive activity
Permanent solo self-employed
42%
Solo transitioning to employer firm 25%
Combining employment with self-employment (hybrid entrepreneurship)
Permanent hybrid entrepreneur 14%
Hybrid entrepreneur transitioning through full entrepreneurship to employer firm 7%
Engaging in dependent forms of entrepreneurship
Disguised employee/ permanent subcontractor 10%
Dependent entrepreneur transitioning through full entrepreneurship to employer firm 2%

9. Summary
We make a detailed segmentation of the population of start-ups on the basis of their motives to start the business
Only a minority of businesses (12%) were created by acting on a deliberate prior intention to create a growth-oriented business.
This calls into question the value of the TPB and EEM theories for large segments of today’s business populations.
The growing numbers of self-employed (freelancers, independent professionals) in today’s economies call for a reorientation of entrepreneurial intentions research.