1. A short status of PDRMIP

3. PDRMIP core experiments
PDRMIP core experiments. All experiments are performed with both fixed-SST (a minimum of 15 years) and coupled model configurations (100 years)
Name
Description
Base
Specified all anthropogenic and natural climate forcing agents at present day abundances (preferred) or pre-industrial abundances
CO2 x 2
Doubling of the CO2 concentration relative to Base
CH4 x 3
Tripling of the CH4 concentration relative to Base
Solar+2%
Total solar irradiance is increased by 2%
Sul x 5
Increase the anthropogenic sulphate concentration or emissions by 5 times relative to Base
BC x 10
Increase the anthropogenic BC concentration or emissions 10 times relative to Base
Myhre et al., BAMS, in press

4. Regional

5. Description of the ten PDRMIP models
Version
Resolution
Ocean setup
Aerosol setup
CanESM2
2010
2.8°x2.8°, 35 levels
Coupled ocean
Emissions
NCAR-CESM1-CAM4
1.0.3
2.5°x1.9°, 26 levels
Slab ocean
Fixed concentrations
NCAR-CESM1-CAM5
1.1.2
2.5°x1.9°, 30 levels
GISS-E2-R
E2-R
2°x2.5°, 40 levels
HadGEM2-ES
6.6.3
1.875°x1.25°, 38 levels
HadGEM3
GA 4.0
1.875°x1.25°, 85 levels
IPSL-CM5A
CMIP5
3.75° x 1.875°, 39 levels
MPI-ESM
1.1.00p2
T63, 47 levels
Climatology, year 2000
NorESM1
NorESM1-M
MIROC-SPRINTARS
5.9.0
T85 (approx.. 1.4°x1.4°), 40 levels
HTAP2 emissions

6. Myhre et al., BAMS, in press

7. PDRMIP temperature & precipitation changes
2016

8. Apparent Hydrological Sensitivity (% K-1)
Myhre et al., BAMS, in press

9. Extreme precipitation for PDRMIP drivers
Myhre et al., BAMS, in press

10. Completion of analysis / paper Responsible
PDRMIP Analysis
Completion of analysis / paper
Responsible
PDRMIP overview paper (submitted)
Beginning of 2016
G. Myhre, P. Forster
Follow-up Andrews et al. (2009) on relation forcing and precipitation changes (published)
December 2015
B. Samset
Methodology on forcing calculations and rapid adjustment (submitted)
P. Forster, T. Richardson, B. Samset
Extreme precipitation changes for PDRMIP drivers
End of 2016
J. Sillmann
Hydrological sensitivity from PDRMIP drivers
Mitigation/regional experiments with the GCMs
A. Voulgarakis
Precipitation changes from an energy budget and circulation perspective
T. Richardson, P. Forster, D. Popke, A. Voulgarakis
Understand more of the differences of the precipitation between the climate models for the historical period from a driver perspective.
End of 2016
G. Myhre, P. Forster, C. Smith
PDRMIP simulations for halocarbons
Mid 2017
Ø. Hodnebrog, Z. Mousavi, K. Shine
Equilibrium and transient climate sensitivity for PDRMIP drivers
D. Shindell, P. Forster, K. Shine, G. Myhre
Forcing and temperature changes for black carbon
C.W. Stjern, B. Samset, D. Shindell
Importance of internal variability
End of 2017
J.-F. Lamarque
Emulators
D.J.L. Olivie, P. Forster, K. Shine, J.-F. Lamarque
F factors
Z. Mousavi, K. Shine
Water vapour changes
Beginning of 2017
Ø. Hodnebrog, G. Myhre

11. New experiments

12. Other ideas??
-Climate extremes
-Stratosphere?
-???

13. Talks and discussions today
Introduction and background (Olivier) 0900 – 0910 Logistics (Apostolos) 0910 – 0930 Status of PDRMIP (Gunnar) 0930 – 1000 Brief status of new PDRMIP experiments (Bjørn) 1000 – 1015 Analysis of forcing and precipitation methodology (Piers) 1015 – 1030 Coffee Miscellaneous ongoing PDRMIP activities (Piers) Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations in multi-model PDRMIP simulations (Camilla) Sensible heat contribution to precipitation changes (Gunnar) Extreme precipitation changes for the different PDRMIP climate drivers (Camilla) Importance of dust feedback on AOD (Jean-François) Discussions Lunch Regional studies (Bjørn) A PDRMIP multi-model study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation (Matt) 1400 – 1420 Mediterranean (skype by Tao/Drew) 1420 – 1440 Changes in the global monsoon system by anthropogenic aerosols (Massimo) 1440 – 1500 Amazon (Piers) 1500 – 1530 Coffee/Tee Energy budget (Apostolos) Energy budget (Chris) Comparing radiative kernels in the context of feedbacks and forcings on the hydrological cycle (Ryan) 1610– 1640 Quantifying rapid adjustments using radiative kernels (Chris) Contributions to global precipitation changes using kernels (Gunnar) Hemispheric Temperature response (Olivier) Discussions 1930 Dinner

14. Talks and discussions tomorrow
Metrics and simple precipitation models (Jean-François) How well can one estimate the fast response from coupled simulations alone? (Dirk) 0920 – 0940 Emission metrics inferred from regional aerosol perturbations (Apostolos) 0940 – 1000 Using simple models to estimate land surface precipitation changes (Piers) 1000 – 1020 Ideas for SLCP (Bill) 1020 – 1040 Coffee break 1040 – 1050 F-factors (Keith) 1050 – 1145 Discussion Lunch Future plans (Keith) 1315 – 1330 Forcing, efficacies and climate sensitivity (Piers) 1330 – 1345 Timescales (Bjørn) 1345 – 1355 Water vapour (Øivind) 1355 – 1405 Impact of forcing agents on the width of the tropical belt in PDRMIP models (Tom) 1405 – 1415 Brief update on the halocarbon experiment (Øivind) 1415 – 1500 Discussions and the way forward (Gunnar) 1500 End of meeting

15. Publications Published Accepted Submitted In preparations
PDRMIP: A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project, Protocol and preliminary results
G. Myhre, P. M. Forster, B. H. Samset, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Sillmann, S. G. Aalbergsjø, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, G. Faluvegi, D. Fläschner, T. Iversen, M. Kasoar, V. Kharin, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Olivié, T. Richardson, D. Shindell, K. P. Shine, Camilla W. Stjern, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis, F. Zwiers
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi: /BAMS-D , 2017
Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: A PDRMIP multimodel study Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Timothy Andrews, Gregory S. Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-François Lamarque, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Thomas Benjamin Richardson, Drew T. Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis
Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2782–2791, 2016
Accepted
Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing
Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Timothy Andrews , Olivier Boucher, Greg Faluvegi , Dagmar Fläschner, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson , Drew Shindell, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2017
Submitted
Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding 
T. B. Richardson, P. M. Forster, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, G. Faluvegi, D. Fläschner, Ø. Hodnebrog, M. Kasoar, V. Kharin, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, B. H. Samset, D. Shawki, D. Shindell, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis
Changes in sensible heat are an important contributor to global precipitation changes
Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn Samset , Øivind Hodnebrog, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, G Faluvegi, D. Fläschner, Piers Forster, M. Kasoar, V. Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, D. Olivie, T. Richardson, D. Shawki, Drew Shindell, K. Shine, Toshihiko Takemura, A Voulgarakis
Contribution of black carbon aerosols to drying of the Mediterranean
Tao et al.
In preparations
Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations in multi-model PDRMIP simulations
Camilla W. Stjern et al.
Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing on projected Amazonian precipitation change
T. B. Richardson et al.
A PDRMIP multi-model study on the impacts of regional aerosol forcings on global and regional precipitation
Liu et al.
Precipitation extremes
Sillmann et al.
Studies based on PDRMIP data
Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6
Forster, P. M., T. Richardson, A. C. Maycock, C. J. Smith, B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, T. Andrews, R. Pincus, M. Schulz
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, doi: /2016JD025320, 2016
An assessment of precipitation adjustment and feedback computation methods
Richardson, T. B., B. H. Samset, T. Andrews, G. Myhre, P. M. Forster
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 11,608–11,619, doi: /2016JD025625, 2016

16. Poster at EGU

17. PDRMIP data http://www.cicero.uio.no/en/PDRMIP