1. World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030
Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
Head, Economic Analysis Division

2. Global Energy and Environmental Trends - Reference Scenario -

3. World Primary Energy Demand
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Mtoe
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Other renewables
World primary energy demand projected in RS to expand by almost 60% from 2002 to 2030, average annual increase of 1.7% per year.
Projected rate of growth is, nevertheless, slower than over the past three decades, when demand grew by 2% per year.
Demand reaches 16.5 billion toe in 2030 up from 10.3 btoe in 2002.
Oil will remain single largest fuel in the global primary energy mix, though its share will fall marginally.
Demand for gas grows at 2.3% per year in – fastest rate of any fossil fuel. By 2030, gas use will be 90% higher than now, and gas will have overtaken coal as world’s 2nd-largest energy source.
Nuclear power
Hydro power
Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy
demand between now and 2030

4. Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Mtoe
OECD
Transition economies
Developing countries
31%
10%
59%
share of total increase (%)
85%
12%
Proven reserves of gas and coal far exceed cumulative amounts of both fuels that will be consumed over And more reserves will certainly be added.
Proven conventional oil reserves today are sufficient to cover all the oil that will be needed until But reserves additions (from new discoveries and from “proving up” probable and possible reserves) will be needed if production is not to peak before then. Key factor is cost.
Non-conventional crude oil reserves are, in any case, very large and will replace any shortfall in conventional supplies as prices rise. Also considerable potential for expanding oil production from gas-to-liquids plants
Sources of incremental energy supplies will shift markedly over the projection period, mainly in response to cost factors and the location of resources:
Over 95% of increase in production will occur in non-OECD regions (up from less than 70% in ).
Most low-cost fossil-fuel resources located in non-OECD countries. 3%
Almost all the increase in production to 2030
occurs outside the OECD

5. Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030
Despite relatively strong growth in energy use in developing regions, per capita consumption remains much lower than in the rest of the world.
By 2030, per capita primary energy consumption averages a mere 1.2 toe in developing regions, compared with 5.4 toe in the OECD and 4.7 toe in the transition economies.
With some exceptions, energy use remains concentrated in the northern hemisphere
Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries

6. Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no major new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity.

7. World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s

8. CO2 Emissions by Sector, 1990-2030
CO2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most

9. Growth in World Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions
2.5%
2.0%
Primary energy demand
1.5%
average annual growth rate
1.0%
0.5%
Global energy-related emissions grow marginally faster than primary energy demand over the projection period.
As result, average carbon content increase slightly.
Over past three decades, emissions grew less rapidly than demand.
0.0%
CO2 Emissions
Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends

10. World Alternative Policy Scenario

11. World Alternative Policy Scenario
Analyses impact of new environmental & energy-security policies worldwide
OECD: Policies currently under consideration
Non-OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy intensity resulting from faster deployment of more-efficient technology
Impact on energy, CO2 emissions & investment needs
Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change
WAPS assesses how global energy markets could evolve were countries around the world to adopt a set of new policies and measures to address environmental and energy-security concerns:
OECD countries: policies considered include those currently under consideration or discussion.
Non-OECD countries: Same policies also considered. But policy discussions less advanced than in OECD. Therefore, also assumed that energy efficiency and intensity improve more rapidly than in the RS as a result both of future policies and of faster transfer of technology from OECD countries.
Basic assumptions on macroeconomic conditions and population are same as in RS. But energy prices assumed to change in response to new energy supply-demand balance.
Purpose of this scenario is to provide insights into how effective policies might be in addressing environmental and energy-security concerns.

13. Net Natural Gas Imports, 2030
Global demand for natural gas in 2030 is 500 bcm or over 10% lower than in the RS.
Lower demand, together with lower oil prices, would result in markedly lower gas prices – especially in North America.
Imports are reduced significantly:
- By 2030, gas imports in N. America are 80 bcm lower – equivalent to the output of 8 large LNG regas terminals.
- Gas savings in OECD Europe amount to 70 bcm in 2030, also greatly reducing need to build LNG terminals (imports of Russian gas are not much affected).
China, by contrast, sees a large increase in gas consumption and imports – the result of a switch from coal to gas in power generation & end-use sectors (to cut pollution). China’s gas-import dependence is more than twice as high as in the RS.
Net gas imports are lower in all major importing regions, except China

14. OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Scenarios
11 000
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Mt of CO 2
Reference Scenario
Alternative Scenario
OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 – 25% higher than in 1990

15. Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-20300%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% 5%
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
49%
10%
21%
12% 8%
OECD
63% 1%
21%
15%
Transition economies
67% 7%
17% 5% 4%
Developing countries
10%
Increased nuclear in power generation
20%
Increased renewables in power generation 7%
Fuel switching in end uses
58%
World
End-use efficiency gains
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%

16. Difference in Electricity Investment in the Alternative vs
Difference in Electricity Investment in the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario
1 000
Additional demand-side
investment
Efficiency
measures
500
Avoided supply-side
investment
Generation
Transmission
Distribution
Difference
billion dollars (2000)
- 500
-1 000
-1 500
-2 000
Additional investments on the demand side are more than offset by lower investment on the supply side

17. Summary & Conclusions
On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2 emissions – will be 60% higher in 2030 than now
Policies under consideration & faster deployment of technology could substantially save energy and reduce emissions
Larger capital needs on the demand side would be entirely offset by lower investment needs on the supply side
Truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment
Urgent & decisive government action is needed