1. UK Sawmill View
September 2016

2. 2016 Overview
Inconsistent picture – very poor start for some mills with others doing well
Overall 2015 mill production was 7% down on 2014
Domestic price increases lagged behind Scandinavian increases
Solid if unspectacular fencing season
Post Brexit currency movements in particular have boosted demand for domestic C16 timber
Most UK mills would identify their primary competition as Irish not imported

3. Facts and Figures - Sawn Production UK
Year
Softwood m3
(000 m3)
2010
3053
2011
3227
2012
3361
2013
3536
2014
3716
2015
3449
2016
Est
2014
Softwood m3
(000 m3)
England
1091
Wales
354
Scotland
1985
Northern Ireland
286
Total
3716
Source Forestry Commission UK Wood Production and Trade 2015 Provisional Figures – 19th May 2015

4. Sawn Softwood – Market Sectors
Source Forestry Commission UK Softwood Forecast

5. Source of UK Softwood Removals
Source Forestry Commission Forestry Statistics 2015

6. UK Round wood Production 2005 - 2014
Source Forestry Commission Forestry Statistics 2015

7. UK Softwood roundwood for Woodfuel
Source Forestry Commission Forestry Statistics 2015

8. Impact of Biomass Major Biomass projects using imported fibre
Encroachment into what was traditionally sawmill saw log supply

9. UK – Forecast Roundwood Availability
Source Forestry Commission UK – Forestry Statistics 2015

10. UK Softwood standing Sales Index
Source – Forestry Commission

11. Roundwood Issues
Round wood (sawlog and pallet) – availability remains broadly in line with demand
Evidence of some high priced contracts being reneged on
Biomass consumers are impacting availability of pallet logs
Small roundwood prices have been artificially buoyed up by contractors buying standing sales to maintain harvesting infrastructure
Concerns that FSC continue to add cost to certification, this is an ongoing issue for growers

12. UK Softwood Construction Timber Price Index
Source – James Jones & Sons Ltd

13. Its not all doom and gloom
KD Eased Edge is selling strongly and prices have increased
Incised and 15 year warrantied posts and sleepers are becoming the norm
Fencing season is becoming less seasonal – better for mills
Roundwood prices and supply are stable
We’re not going to run out of wood

14. Other domestic issues
Round wood supply generally good, saw log prices stable
FE switching to selling more timber standing sales
Undervaluing and erosion of treatment prices
Phytophera in Larch – favourable weather in last 2 years has minimised spread – reduction in Larch availability
Irish mills competing for market share in Scotland – have held back price development
Changes for UK mills can be very dynamic …….and quick

15. UK sawmilling can be very dynamic!

20. Prognosis
Domestic volume production minimal change in 2016, similar in 2017
Prices have risen, but are very product specific
Strong well financed; well invested domestic mills have weathered last 18 months relatively well
Incised, warrantied fence posts and sleepers now widely accepted
Exchange rates will determine the future