1. ? The overall question Y 160 80 40 20 1 1950 2000 2050 22 X
Backcasting
120605
The overall question
ecoefficiency Y
CULTURE
STRUCTURE
NEED
FUNCTION
TECHNO-
LOGY
160 80 40 ? 20 1
1950
2000
2050
22 X
120605
UPC Seminar
Seminar UPC

2. Dimensions of sustainable development
Overexploitation
resources
International
instability
Urban
development
Sustainable
Development
Green house
effects
Distribution of
Prosperity
Biodiversity
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UPC Seminar

3. Transitions manageable? NO ! What then is Transitionmanagement?
COMPLEX:
Long term
Great uncertainty
Many actors
Conflicting interests
Multi dimensual
Multi sectoral
Oriëntation on desirable future
Create process conditions
Future oriëntation
Backcasting
Interactive
With stakeholders
Iterative
120605
UPC Seminar

4. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: BACKCASTING
OECD
1968
Eric
Jantsch
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UPC Seminar

5. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: BACKCASTING
The Natural Step (Robert & Holmer, Chalmers) 1
Present
Situation,
Problem
analysis 2
Space for
Options 4
Future view
3 Scenario analysis
1 Description present situation
2 Establishment criteria for options
3 Determining development path by SA
4 Selection best attainable development path an outcome
120605
UPC Seminar

6. CORE of BACKCASTING To achieve Stand now Backcasting Backcasting
120605
CORE of BACKCASTING
To achieve
Towards sust
Backcasting
Backcasting
Action Plan
Stand now
NOW THEN
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UPC Seminar
Seminar UPC

7. BACKCASTING: HOW future- oriëntation Backcasting Backcasting
120605
BACKCASTING: HOW
INTERMEDIATE
B-CYCLE
future-
oriëntation
INTERMEDIATE STEPS
Towards sust
Backcasting
Backcasting
Robust trends
Terms of reference
Action Plan
Problem analysis
TIME
120605
UPC Seminar
Seminar UPC

8. STRUCTURE CULTURE NEEDS FUNCTIONS TECHNOLOGY
Backcasting
120605
STRUCTURE
CULTURE
NEEDS
FUNCTIONS
TECHNOLOGY
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UPC Seminar
Seminar UPC

9. Types of change EFF. FACTOR 20 5 1 2000 2050 TIME RENEWAL BASED ON
Backcasting
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Types of change
EFF.
FACTOR 20
RENEWAL BASED ON
NEEDS AND FUNCTION
IMPROVEMENT
OF PROCES
AND PRODUCT 5
OPTIMAL
USE 1
2000
2050
TIME
120605
UPC Seminar
Seminar UPC

10. Culture – Structure - Technology
DIMENSIONS OF CHANGE
Optimization - Improvement - Renewal
Involved Parties
120605
UPC Seminar

11. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: BACKCASTING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6
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HOW: SYSTEM RENEWAL: ITERATIVE PROCES
SUPPORTLINE: eveluate and new assignment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 PROBLEMDEFINITION
2 PROCES ARCHITEXTURE
3 TRENDS AND TERMS
4 VISIEON
5 OPTIONS
6 SELECTIONCRITERIA
7 SELECTION
Back in case of insufficient evaluation result 1 2 3 4 5 6
DEVELOPMENTLINE: next product
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UPC Seminar
Seminar UPC

12. Transition at different scales (concurrent)
Macro, landscape
Meso, regimes
Micro, niches
Jan Rotmans, 2003,
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13. ATTITUDE SKILLS STUDENT KNOWLEDGE
Backcasting
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Integral approach
Application oriented
Systemic
Communicative
Sustainability
Cooperative
ATTITUDE
SKILLS
STUDENT
Technology
Culture
Structure)‏
KNOWLEDGE
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UPC Seminar
Seminar UPC

14. Step
Proposed time (hrs)
1 a Define system and determine system boundaries.
Rough description of unsustainability of present situation
Identification major stake holders
Analysis
For each step:
1 h brainstorming
½ h listing of results
1 b Proper description of unsustainability of present situation with stakeholders.
2a Development sustainability and functional criteria for options
2b Inquiry and Analysis of relevant external trends
3 Establishment
Future orientation existing of
3 a Description of strategic options
Exploration
3 b Selection of or combination to a robust option. (optional by scenario analysis1)
4 Backwards path construction towards present situation and setting up action plan
Construction
Summarizing results
Presentation 2
Total 14
In a scenario analysis influencing external factors are identified, classified in a two-dimensional graph: from low impact to high impact and from certain (high predictability) to uncertain (low predictability),select the critical factors: high impact, highly uncertain, the extremes of two most infringing ones deliver four scenario´s, the scenario´s I to IV are named and described. In TNS test robustness in the scenario´s or strategies. In STD search the future options which are most robust in the four scenario´s.
Requires extra time
120605
UPC Seminar