1. Katharine H.S. Moon Wellesley College Brookings Institution
Korean Unification
Prospect and
Global Implications
Demographic Changes &
the Politics of Unification
Washington, DC February 27, 2017

2. New Koreans from Vietnam Philippines CHINA Thailand NEPAL Uzbekistan Mongolia NIGERIA E.Europe PAKISTAN

3. New Koreans from DPRK
70% female

5. 2013 OECD Permanent Immigrant Inflows

6. Massive Demographic Changes
Foreign-born
< 50,000 (0.1%) to the present 2 mil +
(3-4% )
2030 est. 10% +
Marriage Migration & Multicultural Families
2014 Feb: 300,000 foreign spouses
(70% female)
150,000 naturalized citizens
Multi-ethnic Children 2010 on = 200,000 +
2020: 1 in 9
Rural households 49%

7. Massive Demographic Changes
Foreign Workers
2017 approx 1 million
3.64% of the total working population (36 out of every 1,000 workers) are noncitizens.
Increasing trend:
2.99% in 2013
3.30% in 2014
3.58% in
Immigration increase is only way to sustain labor force (4.3 mil in 2030; 11.8 mil in 2015; 15.3 mil in 2060) Korea Economic Research Institute 2014

8. Inter-Korean Relations & Unification
Who knows the “real” NK?
SKs? NKs in ROK? NKs in DPRK? NKs in China? Korean-Chinese? China? US?
Who will lead unification?
Is ethno-nationalism the basis for unification?
“Experts say that the South Korean educated North Korean youth will be an important resource in linking the South and North Koreas together after unification”
NK xenophobia & multicultural SK? NKs call SK place of mongrels; Pol choices of multicultural citizens? Impact on jobs, housing, education. Increased competition for low-income SKs, multi-ethnic families, NKs in SK AND NKs in North

9. ROK Military Responds to Demographic Change
By Reduce troop size from 650,00/552,000 to 387,000 Increase eligibility pool for recruits
2012 Compulsory Military Service Law changed. Include multi-ethnic Koreans
“serving the nation & ethnicity” to
“serving the nation & its citizens”

10. Immigrants vote in Local Elections
2008 National Assembly Election:
111 candidates who had foreigner spouse
2010 Public Official Election Act permitted campaigning by non-citizen spouse or child
2005 POEA granted voting rights in local elections to foreigners age 19+ with 3yr + residence.
Participation rose 200% from 2006 to 2010 in local elections
2009 Superintendent of Ed in Gyeongi-do: “greater turnout among foreign voters”

11. OECD Voter participation:
75% of immigrants with host country citizenship participated in latest national elections
80% of native-born
Immigrants with host-country nationality who have been longer in the country are more likely to vote (
As Korea’s immigrant population grows and deepens in time and social embeddedness, increased political participation. ,

12. Political Parties & Unification
SECTARIANISM Identity & language-based parties for multi-ethnic citizens & Nkoreans
Israel: Immigrant & Russian-language parties
REGIONALISM
Germany: PDS consolidated its position as a East German regional party in the 1994 Bundestag elections
Korean peninsula: KWP as regional broker?
Regional bases for multi-ethnic citizens?
Ansan, Busan (9 ctrs)
LABOR PARTIES
consolidation of North & South
Proliferation & competition
(Foreign Workers labor movements)