1. Intro: Gulf Security in Broad Perspective
Asila Al Hasni
U112491
POLS4925

2. Outline Beginnings Powerful Gulf actors Iran KSA
Major powers and Gulf security
The USA
Europe
Russia
Regional politics and Gulf security
Internal determents of Gulf security
Future

3. Beginnings
Gulf war 1990
Oil
no existing solid security systems

4. Studies began with military threat analysis
Good for short term only
Ignores political, social, economical and geo political factors = affect security in the long term
Iran 1979: same power, different ideals
New security studies

5. Gulf region Iran Iraq most powerful in everyway other then economy
Size population history regime
Threat to GCC
Very outdated
Iran KSA

6. Iran
KSA
Size
1,648,195 km
2,149,690 km
Population
81,824,270
27,752,316
Oil production
3,236,000
9,735,000
Reserves foreign exchange
93,950,000,000 USD
6,601,000,000,000 USD
Annual defense budget
6,300,000,000 USD
56,725,000,000 USD
Active military personnel
545,000
235,000
Active military reserves
1,800,000
25,000
Tanks
1,658
1,210
Aircrafts
479
722

7. Iran 1979 ideology: Exporting the Islamic revolution
Khatami moderate for business
New Persian Empire?
No resources for military occupation of GCC
Iran will not be quiet, will have major role

8. KSA Religious intangible power + “Arabness” Economy Military spending
Proxy war in Yemen, active politically

9. The major powers and gulf security
Must look at foreign actors
Geopolitical interests
Oil and gas
Foreign actors were, and will be, active

10. The USA Peak in operation desert storm (and operations following)
US forces a deterrent – Saddam eg
President Carter: gulf security a vital interest
US security policy guided by US vital interests = easier to explain
Affect of US and GCC domestic politics
Shale oil changes that?

11. Europe
Cannot match military power of US in gulf = supportive role only
Support in coalition to help Kuwait
Status quo will continue because US + EU have same GCC concerns
Any disagreements only short term, not long term
Secure energy supplies
access to GCC markets is important for economies and welfare of EU

12. Collapse of USSR and the GCC
Communist threats to the West through the GCC
Post CW Russia – Central Asia relations
Affect of these relations to the GCC region
Increased Central Asia – GCC relations to increase independence from Russia

13. Russia and the GCC How important is the Gulf to Russia?
Russia needs to form good relations with Islamic states
But domestically represses Islamic minorities + sovereignty of Islamic states
Near Abroad policy with Islamic states of Central Asia
GCC affects central Asia which affects Russia itself
Russia seeking great power status

14. Regional politics and gulf security
Islamic political revolutionaries
Attracting the poor
Islam as a tool
Territorial disputes
Importance of including Iran and Iraq
Israel

15. Regional politics and gulf security
Yemen conflict
Spread of conflict
Drain on resources
Undermining Saudi authority
Iranian foot hold
Al Qaeda

16. Regional politics and gulf security
Syrian civil war
Refugees
ISIS
Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar
KSA, UAE and Bahrain

17. Internal determents of gulf security
Regional development for long term security
growing by oil and slowing by oil
2010: $600 billion surplus
2020: $700 billion deficit (IMF)
Diversification: a goal, but “unrealized”

18. Internal determents of gulf security
Modernity clashes with tradition after oil
Higher expectations to be met for stability
Affect of tribalism
Less influence, still important
Institutionalization
Demographic changes

19. “No country can be secure unless its citizens are safe and well”
Education
Healthcare
Satisfactory jobs
Social integration
No jobs = private sector = more power to the people
Civil societies, workers unions, parties

20. Future? Security isn’t only about military threats
Evolutionary changes
Flexible public policies from within
Substantive and procedural
Balance of change and traditions

21. References
Barylsky Robert V., “The Collapse of the Soviet Union and Gulf Security.” In Gulf Security in the Twenty-First Century edited by David Long, , Abu Dhabi, Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2014.
Scofield, R., “Boundaries, Territorial Disputes and the GCC States.” In Gulf Security in the Twenty-First Century edited by David Long, , Abu Dhabi, Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2014.
Hudson, Michael, ”The United States in the Middle East” In International Relations of the Middle East edited by Louise Fawcett, , Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2009.
Ozev, Muharrem H., ”Political, Economic and Social Transformation in the Middle Eastern and North African Countries” In Change in the Middle East and North Africa edited by Muharrem Hilmi Ozev, , Istanbul, TASAM Publication, 2013.
Fawcett, Louise, ”Alliances, Cooperation and Regionalism in the Middle East” In International Relations of the Middle East edited by Louise Fawcett, , Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2009.
Long, David E., Cristian Koch, “Gulf Security in Broad Perspective.” In Gulf Security in the Twenty-First Century edited by David Long, 1-12, Abu Dhabi, Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2014.
Gause, Gregory F., ”International Politics of the Gulf” In International Relations of the Middle East edited by Louise Fawcett, , Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2009.
Doran, F. Charles, “Economics and Security in the Gulf.” In Gulf Security in the Twenty-First Century edited by David Long, , Abu Dhabi, Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2014.
Hollis , Rosemary, ”Europe in the Middle East” In International Relations of the Middle East edited by Louise Fawcett, , Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2009.
Saif, Ahmed A., “Historical background of Political Change in the Middle East” In Change in the Middle East and North Africa edited by Muharrem Hilmi Ozev, 23-34, Istanbul, TASAM Publication, 2013.
 Yenigun, Cuneyt, “Gulf Security, NATO and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative.” In NATO’S Approach to Gulf Cooperation: Lessons Learned and Future Challenges edited by Firuz Demir Yasamis, 33-48, Abu Dhabi, Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2015.