1. Support for low emission development in SEE: decarbonisation of the residential sector in Serbia
Modelling:
Aleksandra Novikova, PhD | IKEM | University of Greifswald
Input information from the reports of:
Prof. Milica Jovanović Popović, Ignjatović Dušan, Bojana Stankovic | University of Belgrade
Zsuzsa Szalay, PhD & Tamas Csoknyai, PhD | Budapest Technical University
Belgrade, 3 December 2015

2. Outline Objective Method and boundaries
Modelling steps, results and their discussion
Demographics
Buildings stock turnover
Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the base year, calibration
Business-as-usual trends of energy consumption and emissions
SLED policy packages
Impact of policy packages and associated costs
Other possible scenarios and sensitivity analysis

3. Objective
To assist the design of energy efficiency and climate mitigation policies in the residential buildings of Serbia with the information on:
What are the future trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions? What are the key influencing factors? What are the priority sector segments for policies?
What kind of policy packages and what level of policy efforts are required to make the residential buildings low energy/carbon in the medium/long term future? What are the associated costs? How high are possible energy savings and CO2 emission reduction?

4. Architects & policy experts Economists & policy experts
Modelling steps
Bottom-up approach
Architects & policy experts
Economists & policy experts
Step 1: Development of the buildings topology
Step 5: Construction of the buildings stock model
Step 2: Calculation of the present buildings performance
Step 6: Construction and calibration of the energy sector balance in
Step 3:
Calculation of possible retrofit packages (BAU, standard, ambitious)
Step 7: Calculation of baseline energy consumption and CO2 emissions until 2030
Step 4: Calculation of costs for retrofit packages
Step 8: Formulation of policy packages, evaluation of their impact and associated costs

5. Only thermal comfort is included into our analysis
Model boundaries
Only thermal comfort is included into our analysis
Space heating, space cooling, and water heating
Building categories falling out
Vacation buildings (not covered by the EPBD)
Retrofit options: energy efficiency and fuel switch
No impact of climate change

6. Modelling tool
LEAP is a widely-used software for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment developed at the Stockholm Environment Institute

7. Objective
To assist the design of energy efficiency and climate mitigation policies in the residential buildings of Montenegro with the information on:
What are the future trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions? What are the key influencing factors? What are the priority sector segments for policies?
What kind of policy packages and what level of policy efforts are required to make the residential buildings low energy/carbon in the medium/long term future? What are the associated costs? How high are possible energy savings and CO2 emission reduction?

8. Demographics Population Persons per household
: Serbian Stat. Office Population projections of the Republic of Serbia
2041 – 2070: the continuation of the trend
Persons per household
2.9 in 2011 (Serbian Stat. Office)
2.6 in 2030, 2.3 in 2050, 2.0 in 2070 ( 2.0 in 2050 in Europe, European Commission (2011). WETO-T)
The number of inhabited dwellings almost equals the number of households
European Commission World and European Energy and Environment Transition Outlook (WETO-T). Bertrand Château and Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero (Eds.)

9. Buildings stock evolution

10. Buildings stock dynamics in Serbia during 2002 - 2011

11. Buildings stock demolition
The demolition of the buildings stock is assumed to occur according to the Weibull curve:
% left = exp (-(t+c)/a)^b, where
t- year
a - scale factor
b - shape factor, assume 2.5
c - location parameter, assume 0
Only inhabited buildings were analyzed
Calculated and assumed mean buildings lifetime, years
calculated assumed
A. Built
B. Built
C. Built 1961…
D. Built
E. Built 1981…
F. Built
F. Built after
Dwelling construction is estimated as the gap between the demand for dwellings and the remaining dwellings stock
Take the lifetime from Serbia? The same buildings categories

12. Objective
To assist the design of energy efficiency and climate mitigation policies in the residential buildings of Montenegro with the information on:
What are the future trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions? What are the priority sector segments for policies?
What kind of policy packages and what level of policy efforts are required to make the residential buildings low energy/carbon in the medium/long term future? What are the associated costs? How high are possible energy savings and CO2 emission reduction?

13. Buildings stock replacement
The growth in new floor area of ca. 1.5% due to
The demolition rates of old buildings (+)
The growing number of households (+)
A bit more more large buildings, where floor area per dwelling is smaller than that in small houses (-)
The larger floor area of new dwellings (+)

14. Changing structure of the floor area by building type

15. Calibration

16. Calibration: energy source breakdown and consumption levels
Fuels
Balance, all energy uses
Appliances, lighting and cooking (25% of FEC)
Balance, thermal energy uses
Non-calibrated calculated final energy consumption for thermal uses
Calculated final energy consumption for thermal uses
Overestimate of the calculation % vs the balance
Electricity
14.15
8.52
5.63
27.4
6.4
14%
Natural Gas
2.25
22.7
2.1
-7%
LPG
0.86
5.1
0.8
-10%
Coal Lignite
3.01
14.7
2.8
Wood
9.43
40.4
23.1
145%
Heat
4.38
8.6
4.2
-4%
Total
34.08
25.56
118.9
39.4
41%
Stat office of Serbia, not CENSUS

17. Objective
To assist the design of energy efficiency and climate mitigation policies in the residential buildings of Montenegro with the information on:
What are the future trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions? What are the key influencing factors? What are the priority sector segments for policies?
What kind of policy packages and what level of policy efforts are required to make the residential buildings low energy/carbon in the medium/long term future? What are the associated costs? What are the associated costs? How high are possible energy savings and CO2 emission reduction?

18. Reference scenario Business-as-usual development
Each building is retrofitted at least once during its lifetime, i.e. in average once per 45 years or the BAU retrofit rate is 2.2%
If several retrofits happen, only the first one is considered, this is why the model shall not be used for the analysis to the long-term
Business-as-usual retrofit
20% reduction of energy demand for space heating
No fuel switch
Higher thermal comfort
The share of floor area heated increase from 50% to 60%
No other policies than the acting buildings code (2011) are in place

19. Reference: Final energy consumption by energy source

20. Reference: final energy consumption by building age
New: 20% of the floor are in 2030 , but consume 12% of FEC

21. Only for orientation and setting priorities
Baseline: Final energy consumption by building type
From the long-term perspective, the key categories for policy making are new buildings and those built after 1961
Only for orientation and setting priorities

22. Reference: Final energy consumption by building type
The priority segment: small buildings

23. Reference: Final energy consumption by end-use
Space heating will remain to be the largest energy end-use
Shall we increase the correction factors for cooling in BAU?

24. Reference: direction and indirect CO2 emissions

25. Objective
To assist the design of energy efficiency and climate mitigation policies in the residential buildings of Montenegro with the information on:
What are the future trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions? What are the key influencing factors? What are the priority sector segments for policies?
What kind of policy packages and what level of policy efforts are required to make the residential buildings low energy/carbon in the medium/long term future? What are the associated costs? Which energy savings and emission reductions are possible?

26. SLED moderate scenario: transformation by 2070
Policies: regulatory, financial incentives, market based, information. Regulatory the most effective costs effective
Increase in the level of comfort, heating
Larger floor area heated (70%)
Larger floor area cooled (40%)

27. SLED ambitious scenario: transformation by 2050
Policies: regulatory, financial incentives, market based, information. Regulatory the most effective costs effective
Increase in the level of comfort, heating
Larger floor area heated (80%)
Larger floor area cooled (50%)

28. Objective
To assist the design of energy efficiency and climate mitigation policies in the residential buildings of Montenegro with the information on:
What are the future trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions? What are the key influencing factors? What are the priority sector segments for policies?
What kind of policy packages and what level of policy efforts are required to make the residential buildings low energy/carbon in the medium/long term future? What are the associated costs? Which energy savings and emission reductions are possible?

29. SLED Moderate Scenario

30. Final energy consumption by energy source
16%

31. Final energy savings by energy source

32. Electricity savings
39%

33. Final energy savings by building age category

34. Final energy savings by building type

35. Avoided CO2 emissions
30%

36. Objective
To assist the design of energy efficiency and climate mitigation policies in the residential buildings of Montenegro with the information on:
What are the future trends of energy consumption and CO2 emissions? What are the key influencing factors? What are the priority sector segments for policies?
What kind of policy packages and what level of policy efforts are required to make the residential buildings low energy/carbon in the medium/long term future? What are the associated costs? Which energy savings and emission reductions are possible?

37. Assumptions Financial analysis Energy prices Discount rate 4%
Market loan rate 10%
Subsidized loan rate to 0%
Loan term 10 years
Energy prices

38. Affected floor area by building retrofits

39. Investment costs Total investments Incremental investments
74 – 219/m2 depending on building type and age
Incremental investments
~47% of the total investments

40. Incremental investment (SLED – BAU)
GDP Albania = 13 billion USD

41. Incremental investment (SLED – BAU)
GDP Albania = 13 billion USD

42. Eligible costs borrowed by private actors through loans

43. Costs of loans for the government
Add the costs of loans for the households

44. Costs of the grants for the government (eligible share)

45. Saved energy costs

46. Cost effectiveness
Annualized investment cost 2.87 EUR/m2 vs saved energy costs 3.73EUR/m2 assuming the discount rate 4%
Increasing the discount rate higher than 6% makes the investment not profitable
The incremental investments until 2030 are EUR 4.47 billion (not discounted), saved energy costs reach EUR 476 million and will last for many years ahead

47. SLED Ambitious Scenario

48. FEC by energy source
26%

49. SLED Ambitious: Low carbon buildings in 2050, retrofit rate 2%
19%

50. Cost effectiveness
Annualized investment cost 4.2 EUR/m2 vs saved energy costs 2.7 EUR/m2 assuming the discount rate 4%
The incremental investments until 2030 are EUR 12 billion (not discounted), saved energy costs reach EUR 557million and will last for many years ahead

51. Other scenarios and sensitivity analysis