1. Risk-Based Hurricane Recovery of Highway Signs, Signals and Lights
presented to
Virginia Department of Emergency Management
by the
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems
October 6, 2000

2. Virginia Transportation Research Council
Project Team
Virginia Department of Transportation
Travis Bridewell
Lynwood Butner
Mac Clarke
Perry Cogburn
Jon DuFresne
Stephany Hanshaw
Steve Mondul
Gerald Venable
Virginia Transportation Research Council
Wayne Ferguson

3. Project Team (cont.) Students Ryan Finseth Clare Patterson
TJ Zitkevitz
Linn Koo
Richie Moutoux
Advisors
Professor James H. Lambert
Professor Yacov Y. Haimes

4. Overview of Presentation
Introduction
Overview of Project and Goals
Retrofitting and Upgrading Options
Spares and Reserves Options
Priority Setting
Recommendations

5. Motivation Why a Recovery Plan is Needed Current Plan
Restore mobility and save lives
Solicit aid from FEMA and FHWA
Estimate $30-60 billion if categ.4 hit Hampton Rds, Richmond, and NoVa (Source: 97 Post Hurricane Recovery Workshop, Insurance Institute)
Current Plan
Allows inventory only for routine damage
Absent rationale for recovery priorities

6. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Categories

7. Hurricane Andrew Impacts Dade County, FL
Replaced 2,000 signal heads at 400 intersections
Replaced signs
7 Overhead structure signs
45 Multipost ground mounted signs
169 Single post ground mounted signs
5 Span-wire attached signs
Compared with ‘Groundhog Storms’ (1998)
40 Signal heads
No damage to signs reported
Storage of these items is associated with scheduled maintenance or upgrades to the system
Source: Fr. Adofo Fassrainer, FDOT-D6 OPERATIONS

8. Hurricane Floyd
Hurricane Floyd hit Suffolk District in mid-September, causing significant flood damage
56 deaths made Floyd the deadliest US hurricane since Agnes in 1972
Roads did not receive much wind damage, but flooding closed many roads in Virginia

9. Hurricane Floyd Damage

10. Suffolk District Interstates 64, 264, 464, 564, and 664
US Routes 13, 17, 58, 60, 258, 460
State Routes 44, 164, and 168

11. Project Objective
The goal of the effort is to aid the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) in planning and management for the hurricane recovery of highway signs, lights, and signals through assessment of the risks, costs, and benefits of alternatives.

12. Project Structure

13. Equipment Upgrade

14. Wind Speed Assumptions
Not all equipment experience maximum sustained wind speed
Most equipment experience less than maximum sustained wind speed
Few equipment experience wind speeds greater than max sustained wind speed

15. Distributions of Damage

16. Three Upgrade Levels

17. *communicated with Vince Roney, Suffolk District
Upgrading Costs*
*communicated with Vince Roney, Suffolk District

18. Upgrading Trade-off Analysis

19. Upgrading Cost Trade-off

20. Spares and Reserves Options

21. Spares and Reserves Motivation Objective
Currently VDOT and others prepare for low level damage
New spares and reserves leads to faster, cheaper post-hurricane recovery
Objective
Assess the costs and benefits of inventory options

22. Spares Options
Options in terms of % of damageable equipment currently installed on roadways

23. Spares Cost Analysis Pre Hurricane Costs Post Hurricane Costs
Cost to increase current level
Annualized cost under low demand
Yearly storage cost
Post Hurricane Costs
Affected by hurricane severity
Costs under moderate and high demand

24. Post Hurricane Costs I (low damage, mod demand)
Option 3
Option 2
Option 1
I (low damage, mod demand)
II (moderate damage, mod demand)
III (extensive damage, mod demand)
IV (extreme damage, high demand)
V (catastrophic damage, high demand) $

25. Spares Cost Assumptions
Signs will be produced in-house unless under extreme demand (Paul Balderson)
Sign shops provide signs at cost
All other equipment will be purchased from contractors
Shops not equipped to produce cantilevers, signals, and lights
Cost of purchasing equipment increases by 2-3 times under heightened demand

26. Obtained Inventory Data

27. Investment in Spares vs. Post Hurricane Cost (Ground Signs)
Option 3
Status Quo
Option 2
Option 1

28. Time to Recovery under Spares Options
Reduction of Time to Recovery
Spares and reserves
Reduction in manufacture and delivery time
Immediate replacement of equipment
Data used in calculation
Manufacture and delivery time
Installation time

29. Investment in Spares vs. Time to Recovery (Ground Signs)
Option3
Option2
Option1
Status Quo

30. Priority Setting

31. Features of Priority Setting
Importance of roads and intersections based on critical facilities and condition of road network
Restoring or replacing damaged equipment
Critical facilities are those necessary for a community’s well-being

32. Classification of Critical Facilities

33. Critical Facilities

34. Geographic Information Systems
Build on an existing GIS database of VDOT roads
Network model in Arcview to create prioritization tool
Using Arcview’s Network Analyst for optimization

35. Electronic Road Map Two sources for electronic road maps
VDOT’s “Network Level Basemap”
Used to establish road system from which network model will be created
Census maps obtained from UVA Library
Used for geocoding addresses

36. Example of Arcview Map Suffolk District Eastern Shore Williamsburg
Hampton
Roads
Emporia
Williamsburg
Eastern
Shore

37. Facility Data
Working with the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission to get data on locations of critical facilities
HRPDC’s databases are much more complete and accurate than any data collection we can do
Data acquisition and formatting is ongoing

38. Norfolk Facility Data

39. Phases of Preparedness…. …. ….

40. From Map to Network Model
The Arcview maps need translation to a mathematical model
Data consists of intersections, road segments, and various classes of critical facilities
Mathematical model is in terms of nodes, arcs, and levels of supply and demand

41. Optimization of Recovery

42. Recommendations Consider three remedies: 1) Upgrading equipment
2) Increasing spares and reserves
3) Priority setting of roads for recovery

43. Sample of Recommendations
Upgrading overhead (two pole span) signs on critical routes (10% of installed base = 35 signs )
Assume pay 3.3% of total cost annually
Replacement cost per sign = $75,000
* Over 30 years

44. Sample of Recommendations (cont.)
Spares for ground signs in Suffolk District
Assume pay 5% of total cost annually (12,000 installed)
* Over 20 years

45. Recommendations (cont.)
Notice the problem: Hurricanes can cause region-wide damage to traffic equipment
Consider short (days or weeks), medium (months), and long-term (years) aspects of recovery
Short-- Hospitals, Medium-- Schools, Long-- All
Evaluate different upgrading or spares policies by assessing the cost before a hurricane strikes and the damage, cost, and recovery time after a hurricane

46. Recommendations (cont.)
Adapt spares and reserves to hurricane-center and other seasonal forecasts
Perform impact analysis using the various storm categories
Adopt the models for estimating the costs and effectiveness of upgrading and spares policies
Consider upgrading only routes critical to a community’s well-being in a hurricane

47. Recommendations (cont.)
Consider critical facilities throughout the road network in setting priorities for recovery
Consider the following facilities as critical: emergency, education, government, military, operations, commerce, communications, and transportation.
Maintain a web site for support of recovery of signs, signals, and lights.