1. Developmental Criminology
Basic Concepts/Questions
Developmental Theories
Policy Implications
Developmental Criminology

2. The Age-Crime Relationship
Arrest Rate
4000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Property Crimes, peak age = 16
Violent Crimes, peak age = 18
Age at Arrest

3. Is the Age/Crime Curve Misleading?
Data is AGGREGATE
It could hide subgroups of offenders, or “offending trajectories”
Data is Cross-Sectional
Doesn’t track stability/change over time
Data is OFFICIAL
Cannot tell us about the precursors to official delinquency (childhood antisocial behavior)

4. Antisocial Behavior Is Stable
COHORT STUDIES = CHRONIC 6%
Correlation between past and future criminal behavior ranges from .6 to .7 (very strong)
Lee Robins- Studies of cohorts of males
Antisocial Personality as an adult virtually requires history of CASB
CASB as early as age 6 related to delinquency
More severe behavior has more stability
“Early onset delinquency” powerful indicator of stability

5. But there is CHANGE 1/2 of antisocial children are never arrested
The vast majority of delinquents desist as they enter adulthood (mid 20s)

6. New and Old Ideas New (Considering stability/development )
OLD: Crime is the province of adolescents; theories of delinquency most important
Easier to find/survey adolescents too!
New (Considering stability/development )
Theories of adolescent delinquency are at best incomplete
Central causes of delinquency lie in childhood
Chronic offenders still may desist during adulthood
Lifecourse Questions
Why do some age out of crime while others don’t?
Why is criminality so stable over time?
What causes crime at different stages of life?

7. Terminology “Career Criminal” Paradigm
Early roots in criminology—studies of robbers, fences, and so forth
Crime as an occupation  specialization, escalation, etc.
Empirical evidence = little specialization, crime not as an “occupation”
Developmental Criminology replaces “Career Criminal” paradigm in 1980s

8. Lifecourse Theory I
Must explain why there is stability (continuity) in antisocial behavior
Must explain childhood precursors to offending (childhood antisocial behavior)
Severe (age inappropriate) temper tantrums
Deviant/criminal behavior
Must explain desistence, or “change”
Antisocial children, but not adults
Adults that “age out”

9. Lifecourse Theory II Types of Lifecourse Theories
Continuity (Trait) Theories (G&H)
Continuity and Change Theories (Sampson and Laub)
Continuity or Change Theories (Moffitt)

10. Continuity Theories
Some “thing” that is stable over time and related to crime
Gottfreson and Hirschi  Low self-control
Becomes very stable by age 8
Causes crime and other nastiness
Problem?
Why do people desist? Explain “childhood recoveries” or adult desistence?
G&H
People desist –it’s a “law” or “constant” like gravity, which doesn’t’ need explanation

11. Sampson and Laub
Important/Popular book: Crime in the Making: Pathways and Turning Points Through Life
First to fully outline “lifecourse” criminology
Put forth a lifecourse theory
Use “Glueck data” to test theory

12. Pathways and Turning Points
Pathways = stability
Turning Points = opportunity for change

13. Sampson and Laub Childhood Adolescence Adulthood Context Poverty
Neighborhood
Others
Parenting
Supervision
Discipline
Social Bonds
Family
School
Delinquent Peers
Delinquency
Adult Crime
Length of
Incarceration
Social Bonds
Marriage
Good Job
Individual
Differences
Temperament
Conduct disorder
diagnosis

14. Continuity Stability of Trajectory
Individual differences (traits) possible
Cumulative Continuity
Delinquency/crime has effect on “adult social bonds”
Delinquency/crime can lead to incarceration, which also has effect on adult social bonds
These bonds, in turn, have effect on future crime

15. Just a little reminder…
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Chicago Bears Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Because I care…

16. Change Turning Points = Adult Social Bonds
Quality Marriage
Quality Employment
Why would these things reduce crime?
S&L: they increase informal control (bind individuals to society, give them something to lose)
Other explanations (spend less time with criminal friends, etc.)

17. Sampson and Laub II
New Book/Articles based on follow-up data from Gleuck sample
Followed until age 70
Similar to original theory
Employment, marriage, military service
More complex-why a “turning point?”
Knife off past from the present/future
Supervision/monitoring (control) but also opportunities for social support/growth
Change to structure/routine activities
Opportunity for identity transformation

18. How do people desist? Desistence by Default Human Agency
No conscious decision to “stop offending”
Rather, roles, structure, social context changes
Human Agency
Vague concept that implies people have some say in the matter.
Not same as “rational choice” nor is it a “trait”
Interaction = land a good job but still must want to keep
Theoretical Importance
Lives do not “unfold” in predictable sequences
Desistence more difficult to explain than onset or persistence

19. Terrie Moffitt A Stability or Change Theory Argument:
There are 2 different “kinds” of offenders in the world
These types can be characterized by their unique “offending trajectories”
Failure of Mainstream Criminology?
During adolescence, these two groups look rather similar

20. Moffitt’s 2 Groups of Offenders
LCP’s
Early Start, Stable over lifecourse, 5% of general population (small group)
Therefore…
Why start so early? Why so stable?
AL’s
Late starters, desist in adulthood, very prevalent in population
Therefore….
Why start so late? Why desist right away?

21. Explaining the LCP trajectory
Presence of “Neuropsychological Deficits”
Where do they come from?
Why do they matter?
INTERACTING WITH
Ineffective Parenting
Monitoring, supervision, etc.
This “dual hazard” puts them on bad path…however…

22. Cumulative Continuity for LCP’s
What in the environment is affected?
Peer Rejection
School Failure
Parenting
THEREFORE
Cumulative continuity
Contemporary continuity (still have N.P. Deficit, personality traits)

23. Explaining the AL’s Maturity Gap Mimic Why do AL’s desist?
Knifing off Bonds as “rewarding”
Mimic
Why do AL’s desist?
However, some may exhibit continuity
“Snares” as another example of cumulative continuity

24. Key Moffitt Questions Why do we need 2 theories?
How does she account for stability and change?
Specific explanations of LCP and AL offending

25. Policy Implications The seduction of the chronic 6%
The promise of early intervention
Theory Specific Implications
Moffitt  causes of neurological deficits, effective parenting, other?
S&L  family context, parenting, bonds (child and adult)