1. BRAZILIAN SYSTEM OF TENDENCY SURVEYS AND CYCLE INDICATORS
Aloisio Campelo Jr. (FGV/IBRE)
Hangzhou, October, 8, 2014

2. Overview Economic Cycles at FGV…………………………………………..3
Timeline……………………………………………………………….4
Tendency Surveys……………………………………………….….5
Cycle Indicators
Mostly used series and quantitative data
On Going Projects

3. Dating Committee (CODACE)
FGV Economic Cycles
Economic Cycles
Statistics
(Regular Tendency Surveys)
Cycle Indicators
(Coincident, Leading, etc.)
Applied Studies
Seminars/
Conferences
Dating Committee (CODACE)

4. Tendency Surveys and Cycle Indicators Timeline of the FGV
2013 M
Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV
2012 M
Labour market leading and coincident Indicators
Trade &
Construction
2010 M
2008
Services M
Latin American
Economic Survey
2007 Q
Experts survey/part of Ifo WES
2005
Consumer M
1998
Investment Q
1966
Manufacturing (Quarterly until 2005) M

5. System of Tendency Surveys
Since 2008, expansion of coverage and improvements have been supported by the Brazilian Central Bank;
Main results are made public on FGV´s web site (
Detailed results are sold as a means of financing part of the investments.

6. Main Statistical Features
Business tendency Surveys
Questionnaires and sector coverage are similar to the European Harmonised Programme;
Firms stratified by size (large, medium and small) and sector;
Web-based questionnaire complemented by telephone calls.
Consumer Survey
Questionnaire combines the “European Harmonised”, Michigan and TCB;
Consumers stratified by income level and region (city);
Coverage – 7 major cities of the country;
Data collected by web and telephone calls.
Calendar for FGV Surveys is available at FGV´s web site:

7. FGV Surveys – Size of Samples
Sector
Size of Sample
Number of sectors*
FGV´s monthly Business and Consumer Tendency Surveys
Manufacturing
1,200 21
Services
2,200 29
Trade 17
Construction
700 11
Total of monthly Business Surveys
5,300 78
Total of Consumer Survey
2,100
4 / 7 *
Quarterly Surveys
Investment
850
Latin American Economic Survey
150
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* 4 income levels; 7 cities

8. Indicators from Surveys used in Brazil
Besides the confidence indices, some individual indicators extracted from theses surveys are widely used in Brazil:
Consumer´s Inflation Expectations (published separately);
Consumer´s employment assessment;
Household´s financial situation (delinquency rates);
Savings/consumption (consumer´s indebtedness cycle);
Manufacturing Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU);
Inventory levels;
Investment Confidence Index – Aggregation of confidence indices from sectors related to productive investments (eg: capital goods, inputs to construction, etc).

9. Cycle Indicators
Starting in 2009, FGV created indicators from Tendency Surveys data combined with other indicators:
Labour market leading and coincident Indicators (only survey indicators);
Leading and Coincident Composite Indicators TCB/FGV (following the Conference Board traditional family of indicators).

10. Manufacturing Confidence Index x Manufacturing Production*
Source: FGV/IBRE and IBGE
* Published with a 40-day delay

11. Future Business Situation x Investment
Source: FGV/IBRE

12. Expected Employment x Industrial Employment
Source: FGV/IBRE and MTE

13. Leading Economic Index and Coincident Economic Index
Source: FGV/IBRE
The gray areas represent the recessions of the brazilian economy, according to the Economic Cycle Dating Committee (CODACE).

14. On Going Projects
Level of capacity utilisation for non-manufacturing sectors (2013-);
Granting access to microdata from both Consumer and Business surveys to academic researchers from inside and outside FGV (2014);
Website for the working papers:
Extending the consumer Survey for the whole country (2014-);
Programme for producing an aggregate Confidence Index for the BRICS’ countries and a Book on the BRICS’ economic cycles (2012-);

15. Thanks