1. Correlates of Crime: - disadvantaged localities and conviction and imprisonment rates
Adjunct Professor Peter Norden AO
Australian & New Zealand Society of Criminology Conference
Auckland, New Zealand
28th November 2012

2. Dramatic increase in the Australian National Imprisonment rate: - from 1994 – 2007, the size of the prisoner population increased steadily at any average rate of 3.7% per year.
Reference: J. Zhang and A. Webster
“An Analysis of Repeat Imprisonment Trends in Australia using Prisoner Census Data”
ABS Catalogue no (Aug 2010)

3. What could cause such an increase, more than three times the rate of growth of the total Australian population? Increased crime rates? ….no obvious evidence available Increased sentence length? ….minimal explanation only

4. Hypothesis from professional practice observations: - increase in socially disadvantaged, mentally ill and poor health generally
Hypothesis to be tested by national research project mapping disadvantage by postcode, including more than 20 variables….

5. Information Technology Services
CAR Main Points
Measures disadvantage by postcode area in Vic and New South Wales
Poverty concentrated and entrenched in certain areas
Strong correlations between social disadvantage factors
Positive impact of social cohesion
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6. Information Technology Services
A report commissioned by Jesuit Social Services and Catholic Social Services Australia
2007
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7. DISADVANTAGE FACTOR CORRELATIONS: VICTORIA: CRIME
.601 Low job skills
.535 Job Qualifications
.633 Disability Pensions
.544 Year 12 Incomplete
.534 Low income
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8. DISADVANTAGE FACTOR CORRELATIONS: VICTORIA: IMPRISONMENT
.466 Low job skills
.444 Low pre-school attendance
.411 Unemployment
.379 Year 12 Incomplete
.506 Low taxable income
Child mistreatment
.661 Public rental housing
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9. Call for a reform of the Australian Criminal Justice System……
Call for a reform of the Australian Criminal Justice System……. Senator Jim Webb, U.S. 2009, National Criminal Justice Commission
The United States:
5% of the world’s population
25% of the world’s prison population

10. The use of the criminal justice system to deal with social disadvantage, mental illness and addiction, and poor general health must be recognised…..
Crime prevention methods, based on developing liveable and affordable communities can offer a viable alternative….

11. Professor Tony Vinson’s social research identifies the key role of social cohesion in combating the impact of entrenched community disadvantage.
Three measures of high community cohesion used:
participation in organised recreation/sporting groups
volunteering
availability of informal help or assistance

12. Measuring the Impact of Community Development Interventions ….
CAR Unemp/Imp SC comp
Measuring the Impact of Community Development Interventions ….
Across local populations UNEMPLOYMENT
and IMPRISONMENT
are strongly connected
(0.65**)
Connection grows stronger
(0.75)
Low social
cohesion
plus
Connection significantly weakens
(0.22)
High social
N = 277
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13. CAR Low Inc/Imp SC comp
Community Development Interventions Drives a Wedge in the Cycle of Disadvantage
Across local populations LOW FAMILY INCOME
and IMPRISONMENT
are strongly connected
(0.55**)
Connection grows stronger
(0.62)
Low social
cohesion
plus
Connection significantly weakens
(0.18)
High social
N = 277
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14. CAR Early Sch/Unemp SC comp
Impact of Community Development Interventions (contd)
Across local populations EARLY SCHOOL LEAVING
and UNEMPLOYMENT
are strongly connected
(0.64**)
Connection remains strong
(0.63)
Low social
cohesion
plus
Connection significantly weakens
(0.28)
High social
N = 277
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15. CAR Unemp/Child Abuse SC comp
Impact of Community Development Interventions (contd)
Across local populations UNEMPLOYMENT
and CHILD NEGLECT
are strongly connected
(0.68**)
Connection remains high
(0.56)
Low social
cohesion
plus
Connection drops
(0.40)
High social
N = 277
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16. Impact of these research findings: …substantial implications for national social policy reform in Australia today. …focus on crime prevention and development of cohesive, liveable and affordable communities.