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10 Public Policy Issues to Watch 2017
Board of Directors James Putnam, Chair David Alukonis Kate Hanna John Herney Eric Herr Donnalee Lozeau Dianne Mercier Catherine A. Provencher Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh 10 Public Policy Issues to Watch 2017 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” 1 1 1
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1. Federalism and Devolution
– Then Speaker Newt Gingrich created the “Contract with America” which supported omnibus block grants for Medicaid, food stamps, and welfare. These were (with the exception of welfare) consistently vetoed by then President Clinton. What will the devolution revolution look like in ?
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2. NH’s Opportunity Gap (Rural Vs. Urban)
City based recovery What Works Cities - What Works Cities partners with mid-sized American municipalities that are committed to using data and evidence to engage citizens, make government more effective, and improve results for citizens. Partner with Manchester? Dean Kamen While the state has experienced a recent acceleration in economic growth, many rural areas of the state have not recovered to pre-Great Recession job levels. What policies accelerate economic growth in the Southern part of the state and help support continuing transition in the more rural parts?
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3. Publicly Financed Health Care
The Affordable Care Act resulted in significant increases in coverage in New Hampshire, lowering the state’s uninsured rate. One primary factor in this reduction was the state’s Medicaid expansion – the New Hampshire Health Protection Plan – which provides coverage to ~45,000 low income individual. Federal action on the Affordable Care Act could significantly change this (and other sources of coverage) or even result in block grants to the state What Works Cities - What Works Cities partners with mid-sized American municipalities that are committed to using data and evidence to engage citizens, make government more effective, and improve results for citizens. Partner with Manchester? Dean Kamen Source: NH Department of Health and Human Services Caseload Reports
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4. Substance Abuse 4th - Increase in rate of age adjusted death by overdose nd – Per capita rate of drug overdose deaths (2015) National Governor’s association roadmap - EMERGENCY AND PERMANENT PRESCRIBING RULES NALOXONE (NARCAN) DISTRIBUTION GOOD SAMARITAN LAW STATEWIDE ADDICTION CRISIS LINE . NEW HAMPSHIRE ALCOHOL AND DRUG TREATMENT LOCATOR REGIONAL ACCESS POINT SERVICES NH’s “Building Capacity for Transformation” Waiver - New Hampshire experiences high rates of substance abuse across most substances. In addition, the increase in deaths involving heroin and other opioid use are on the rise, both in NH and across the country, raising awareness of, and interest in, what the state and its communities can do to combat the social and economic problems associated with substance abuse.
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Percent change in school-aged children, 5 to 19
5. K-12 Education Absent significant changes in demographic trends, New Hampshire is expected to experience a 13% reduction in school aged children. In some communities, the reductions are anticipated to be even higher, as the map here shows. School systems will have to grapple with declining enrollment, and declining state funding, which is based on a per pupil formula. The state’s current education adequacy formula is already being challenged, and demographic pressures will put more pressure on state legislators to focus attention on the issue of K-12 education. Percent change in school-aged children, 5 to 19 ( ) New Commissioner, Review of common core Does education adequacy still – if it ever did – meet the goals School building aid Other resources for local schools? Source: Office of Energy and Planning Population Projections
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6. Our Workforce Source: Office of Energy and Planning Population Projections The media often reports businesses’ concerns about access to an educated workforce. The migration of educated working-aged adults into New Hampshire has historically helped support robust economic growth over the past 30 years. The most recent population projections, however, suggest that NH’s working age population age will fall over the next 20 years, as shown in the graph above. What, if anything, should legislators do to ensure an adequate NH workforce? Support policies which increase the educational attainment of native NH residents? Proactively work to ensure that New Hampshire has those things that will attract the next generation?
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7. Energy Costs Only 8 states in the country have higher electricity costs than New Hampshire (two of which are our neighbors, Massachusetts and Vermont.) The combination of the Business and Industry Association making energy a top priority, and high profile energy development initiatives like the Northern Pass and the Kinder Morgan proposal to expand natural gas capacity with a pipeline in southern NH, will ensure that this is a big public policy topic. Source: US Energy Information Administration
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8. State Revenues Last budget biennium included reductions in the business profits and the business enterprise taxes in the event that certain revenue targets were met. 7% increase in revenues, driven by 16.3% increase in business taxes (90.4m) 6.9% increase in meals and rooms (19.3m) 14.5% increase in real estate transfer tax (17.1m)
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9. Our Aging Population 41.8 Source: Census Bureau, American Community Survey Estimate for 2014 New Hampshire is in its economic prime with a median population age of However, we are aging quickly, and there are only 2 states (Vermont and Maine) that have an older population than New Hampshire. The Center has put the issue of our aging population front and center (our original analysis can be found here) since 2008. This year will bring fresh policy questions related to this demographic shift as the state faces questions about age-friendly communities, housing availability, and movement of the state’s low-income elders into Medicaid managed care.
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10. Healthcare Market Consolidation
The wild-wild west of medicine Maine medical, memorial hospital merger. Partners (MGH), Wentworth-Douglass merger. CMC, Huggins, Monadnock merger Rapid transformation of the healthcare market raises questions about governance, financing, quality, price and community benefit provision.
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For info on other major pubic policy issues − including local finance, higher education, and infrastructure − take a look at our latest report “What is New Hampshire”
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New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies
Board of Directors James Putnam, Chair David Alukonis Kate Hanna John Herney Eric Herr Donnalee Lozeau Dianne Mercier Catherine A. Provencher Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Want to learn more? • Online: nhpolicy.org • Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy • • Our blog: policyblognh.org • Call: (603) “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
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