1. Expert Group on Operational Forecasting (EG-OF)
Yuki Honda
Co-coordinator of EG-OF
Japan Meteorological Agency
RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016

2. EG Members and Contributors
Position
Member
Country
Co-coordinators
Yuki Honda
Japan
Ms Irina Zaytseva
Uzbekistan
Theme Leader in Operational (Weather) Forecasting Process and Support (SWFDP in Southeast Asia and SWFDP in Bay of Bengal)
Ms Sunitha D. Santhamma
India
Mr Vo Van Hoa
Viet Nam
Theme Leader in Operational Predictions from sub-seasonal to longer-time scale
Mr Suhee Park
Republic of Korea
Theme Leader in Emergency Response Activities
Mr Masami Sakamoto
Contributors
RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Centre
Mr Chiashi Muroi
RSMC New Delhi - Tropical Cyclones
Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra
SDS-WAS Asia Node RC
Dr Zhang Xiaoye
China
SWFDP in Central Asia
Mr Dmitry Kiktev
Russia
EG-OF has a similar structure to OPAG-DPFS of WMO CBS.

3. GDPFS Centers in RA II (as of Dec. 2016)
7 RSMCs with geographical specialization
2 RSMCs with activity specialization on Tropical Cyclone Centre/Typhoon Centre
3 RSMCs with Provision of atmospheric transport modelling
3 Global Producing Centres for Long-range Forecasts
3 Regional Climate Centres + 1 new RCC
1 RSMCs with activity specialization on Atmospheric Sand and Dust storm Forecasts
Lead Centre for EPS Verification
Lead Centre for Long-range Forecast (LRF) of Multi-model ensemble (MME) Prediction
Lead Centre for coordinating the monitoring results of Land Surface Observation in RAII
Moscow
Obninsk
Novosibirsk
Khabarovsk
Tashkent
Seoul
Beijing
Tokyo
New Delhi
Jeddah
Google Maps

4. Revision of the Manual on GDPFS (WMO-No.485)
CBS approved the new Manual at CBS-16 (Nov.2016)
Will be endorsed at EC-69 (2017)
Replacement of RSMC with Geographical Specialization
The status is retained until Cg-18 (2019).
Members hosting RSMCs are requested to map their activities onto one or more of the new following RSMCs:
RSMC for Regional Severe Weather Forecasting (SWFDP-like)
RSMC for Global NWP
RSMC for Limited Area NWP
RSMC for Global EPS
RSMC for Limited Area EPS

5. GDPFS Real Time Activities Non-Real Time Activities Customer
RSMC for general purpose activities
WMC = general RSMC (global DPS/EPS, GPC)
RSMC for specialized activities
RSMC for non-realtime activities
NMC (National Meteorological Centre)
NMHS (National Meteorological Hydrological Service)
Customer
(Public, Media, Humanitarian Agencies …)

6. WMO Technical Progress Report on GDPFS and NWP Research
Single source of information on operation al NWP systems and relevant research activities. Aiming to facilitate the Members’ contribution to the Report, the content and reporting method will be reviewed by CBS.
Members who operate any NWP systems and/or related applications are encouraged to submit the Report regularly.

7. User communities, including Disaster Management authorities
Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and Cascading Forecasting Process ?
Increasing gap in application of advanced
　　　　　　　　　　　　technology in early warnings
Goal
Improve warnings of severe weather 　　　　　　　　　　　　and lead-time on alerts
Improve collaborative working relationships 　　　　　　　　　　　　between NMHSs
Provide feedback to global centres on the performance of their models
WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap, by applying the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ (regional frameworks)
User communities, including Disaster Management authorities
Global Centres
RSMC Pretoria
NMCs 7 7

8. SWFDP- RA II Southeast Asia
(since 2010)
WMO
5 countries: Cambodia, Lao PDR
Viet Nam, Philippines Thailand
Domain:
10°S, 40°N, 80°E, 140°E
Global Centres:
CMA, JMA, KMA, ECMWF and DWD (for LAM support)
Hazards:
Heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell
Regional Centres:
RFSC Ha Noi (Lead centre)
RSMC Tokyo (typhoon forecast support)
RSMC New Delhi (TC forecast support)
Demonstration phase started in 2016

9. SWFDP- RA II Bay of Bengal (moving to demonstration phase)
WMO
Focus on: strong winds, thunderstorm, monsoon, heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell)
Domain: 10°S, 35°N, 45°E and 110°E
Global Centres:
IMD, ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material, satellite products)
Regional Centres: RSMC New Delhi
6 Countries: Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka & Thailand
Demonstration phase likely to start in 2017

10. SWFDP- RA II Central Asia (Initiated and in the preparatory phase)
WMO
Focus
Heavy Rain and associated hazards (e.g. flooding)
Heavy Snow
Strong winds
Snow storms/blizzards
Extreme temperatures
Dry spells
Domain
29°N - 60°N
25°E - 90°E
For Mountainous Region
36°N - 45°N
63°E - 82°E
Regional Centre
RSMC Tashkent
Global Centres
RosHydromet, ECMWF
CMA, JMA
Participating Countries
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan
RSMC web portal is ready and the pilot demonstration phase started in Full demonstration phase is likely to start in 2017

11. 16th Typhoon Committee Attachment Training at the RSMC Tokyo
Date and Place: 15 to 26 August 2016 at the JMA Headquarters.
Trainees: Mr. Thatsana Chanvilay (Lao PDR), Ms. Shelly Jo Igpuara Ignacio (the Philippines), Ms. Ton Thi Thao (Vietnam), Mr. Nasser Said Abdullah Al Ismaili (Oman), Mr. Habib Rehmat (Pakistan), and Mr. Ponna Handi Chaminda De Silva (Sri Lanka).

12. 16th Typhoon Committee Attachment Training at the RSMC Tokyo
Curriculum: Introductory Lectures on Tropical Cyclone, QPE/QPF, Storm Surge, practical training of Tropical Cyclone Analysis & Forecast, Warning Development (new!).
Needs & Challenges: 1) Identified needs for training on analysis and forecasts of TC-associated phenomena, such as heavy rainfall and storm surges. 2) Financial resources for inviting PTC members to this training.

13. Training Activities of RSMC, New Delhi
India Meteorological Department
Training Activities of RSMC, New Delhi
Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Training conducted every year from 2005.
This year training conducted during September There were 19 participants including 3 from WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries viz. Bangladesh, Maldives and Pakistan, and 11 participants from India
Regional Training Workshop for capacity development in coastal multi hazard early warning system was jointly organised by RSMC, New Delhi & Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad and sponsored by UN-ESCAP at Hyderabad during September 2016.
In 2015, an advanced training on TC forecasting was conducted by RSMC New Delhi during August There were 16 International participants from WMO/ESCAP Panel and Typhoon Committee member countries and 41 participants from India
RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016

14. Year Name of Training Place Period Countries 2007
WMO TC forecasters training
New Delhi
12-23Feb
Bangladesh, Myanmar , Sri Lanka
2008
14-25 Feb
Srilanka, Thailand
2009
09-20 Feb.
Bangladesh, Maldives
2010
1-12 Feb.
Myanmar, Srilanka
2011
28Feb.-11Mar.
Bangladesh, Oman, Myanmar
2012
20 Feb-
02 Mar.
Thailand, Srilanka, Maldives
2013
1-12 April
Bangladesh, Myanmar, Oman
2014
17-28Feb
Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand
WMO training on Dvorak technique and TC forecasting
Muscat, Oman
28 Sep.-
02 Oct.
WMO/ESCAP Panel
countries
2015
WMO Training on TC Forecasting
3-14 Aug.
countries, Cambodia, Laos
2016
19-30 Sep.
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives
Coastal Multi-hazard early warning system organised by INCOIS, RSMC and ESCAP
Hyderabad
19-23 Sep.
8 countries from WMO/ESCAP and WMO-Typhoon committee

15. Emergency Response Activities
Masami Sakamoto
Theme Leader on ERA
Japan Meteorological Agency
RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016

16. Activities regarding Emergency Response Activities [Plans and Status]
Task
Key Deliverable
Activity
2013
2014
2015
2016
Monitoring of the provision of products and services by designated RA-II GDPFS Centres within the framework of the Emergency Response Activities (ERA)
• Improve the provision measures for the products and services • Explore of potential registration of non-registered member states.
A. Continue / fax tests to improve reachability for the registered NMHSs
done
RSMCs and TL-ERA
B. Carry out a questionnaire survey for non-registered members.
TL-ERA and WMO Secretariat
Advising on evolving requirements for ERA operational systems and services
• Provide better understanding of ERA. • Monitor of the user requests for ERA to improve the activity
C. Provide members with a concise guidance for the standard products and the joint statement of EER.
D. Carry out a user request survey
All activities planned for 2013 – 2016 ware completed. The expected results were attained.
Reachability to registered NMHSs soared, and the communication between RSMCs and NMHSs has been maintained (Activity A).
One more NMHS was invited to become one of the registered Members (Activity B).
Basic procedures regarding EER were informed responding to some additional dialogs with Members in the region (Activity C).
User requests , opinions and suggestions made by Members on ERA were identified. The overall satisfaction rate on ERA seemed good (Activity D).

17. Activities for 2013 - 2016 A. Carry out email / fax tests in RA-II
RSMCs Beijing (China), Obninsk (Russian Fed.), and Tokyo (Japan) continued their efforts to maintain good connectivity to Members.
The perfect reachability was attained in 2016 !
B. Carry out a questionnaire survey for non-registered members.
The state of Kuwait joined the EER network.
C. . Provide members with a concise guidance for the standard products and the joint statement of EER.
A guidance material was distributed to all Members in 2014.
Some additional dialogues (questions and a request by , and visit) have made with Members.

18. Activities in 2016 D. Carry out a user request survey
A survey was conducted incorporating 29 registered Members. 17 Members responded to the questionnaire. Findings of the survey include:
More than 70% respondents use (or plan to use) ERA service.
Regarding overall satisfaction with the current service, the majority (80%) voted “good” or “excellent”.
The current exercise frequency (once or twice a year) seems appropriate for majority (65%) of the respondents.
Future products discussed by CBS ET-ERA seems favorable.
Nearly half of the respondents want to continue the facsimile service.

19. The Action Plan 2016 - 2019 regarding ERA
Task
Key Deliverable
Activity
2016
2017
2018
2019
Monitoring of the provision of products and services by designated RA-II GDPFS Centres within the framework of the Emergency Response Activities (ERA)
Monitoring of and improvement in the provision measures for the ERA products and services
A. Continue / fax tests to maintain good reachability for the registered NMHSs
done X
RSMCs and TL-ERA
Advising on evolving requirements for ERA operational systems and services
• Monitor of the user requests for ERA to improve the activity
• Enhanced Members' understanding on ERA.
B. Carry out a user request survey
done　
TL-ERA and WMO Secretariat
C. Convey appropriate requests from Members to the expert team of ERA
TL-ERA and ET-ERA
D. Provide Members with a concise guidance for the transition to the new GDPFS manual regarding EER.
It is important and essential to confirm the connectivity to NMHSs (Activities A)
Requests and opinions by NMHSs are necessary to improve the activities (Activities B, C)
To make the activities useful for NMHS, it is necessary to understand ERA in the new manual (Activity D)

20. RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016
Thank you
Merci
RA II Management Group Meeting Abu Dhabi, U.A.E., 7-8 December 2016