1. Through Improved Prediction and Impact Modelling
Storm Risk Mitigation
Through Improved Prediction and Impact Modelling

2. Contributors

3. Programme Background
Storms have had an increasing social and economic impact over recent years
Impacts caused by adverse weather are disproportionately influenced by extremes
Climate change is likely to increase costs associated with storm impacts
NERC has allocated £4.9m from to address research gaps, in particular, prediction of mid-latitude storms and their impacts

4. Programme Background
The aim is to improve forecasting of storms and their impacts on catchments and coasts
In the short-term
0-48 hours through numerical weather prediction (NWP)
And in the long-term
over decades and with evolving climate change through improved climate prediction
On both timescales there is a need to improve forecasting of impacts

5. Programme Structure
Given the high degree of influence of storms on other natural hazards there is a requirement for improved linkage with impact models
To better inform policy
To enable measures that minimise storm associated risks
This requires information to flow between numerical weather prediction, climate models and impact models
The programme has therefore been structured into three interconnecting deliverables

6. Deliverable 1 Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
increased understanding of and capability to predict mesoscale structures in extra-tropical cyclones.
This project is being undertaken by a consortium called DIAMET - DIAbatic influences on MEsoscale structures in extratropical sTorms

7. DIAMET - outline
A ‘field campaign’ using NERC aircraft to investigate mesoscale structures in storms approaching the UK, with high-resolution modelling of these events
Use the results of the field campaign to constrain simulations in the Met Office’s Unified model
Improve understanding in terms of the fundamental predictability of mesoscale structures

8. Deliverable 2 Climate Science
improved understanding of how climate change and natural variability will affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical cyclones
This project is being undertaken by a consortium called TEMPEST - Testing and Evaluating Model Predictions of European Storms

9. TEMPEST -outline
Assessing predicted change in extra-tropical cyclones to inform the next IPCC assessment report
Understand which processes are leading to the large spread of climate model predictions for European extra-tropical cyclones
Detailed investigation extra-tropical cyclones response to climate change

10. Deliverable 3
Impacts
improved ability to use numerical weather prediction and climate model output for storms impact modelling over a short and long term
This project is being undertaken by a consortium called DEMON - Developing enhanced impact models for integration with next generation NWP and climate outputs

11. DEMON - outline
A better understanding of the errors and uncertainties in weather forecast and climate model rainfalls
The development of methods to use satellite and airborne data on floods to improve flood forecasts
Methods to predict water extents, depths and velocities during floods for whole urban areas down to the resolution of individual buildings

12. Programme Management Programme Executive Board – joint with CWC
Programme Advisory Board:
Prof. Denis Peach (Chair), Dr Sean Longfield
Dr David Burridge, Prof. Ian Townend
Programme/Science Management Team:
Dr Helen Beadman, Dr Michal Filtness (NERC)
Graham Leeks, Dr Rob Ward,
Dr Daren Gooddy, Dr Lucy Ball (CEH/BGS)

13. Programme Timetable 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Proposal Calls
Proposal assessment
Project/Consortium awards
Annual Programme meeting
Website Development
Stakeholder engagement meetings
Integration Workshops

14. Deliverable/Outcomes
Development of new/improved models and methodologies
Collection of new data
High-profile publications
Guidance given to the climate impacts assessment community and policymakers regarding the trustworthiness of climate predictions
Developing an integrated research community