1. The implementation of the Paris Agreement in the ClimaSouth region
6th Steering Committee
Amman 29 March 2017
Andrea Rizzo
Project funded by the European Union

2. From INDCs to NDCs
Lack of official international guidance (e.g. UNFCCC process)
Implementation process is specific to each country’s conditions and capacities
Common steps identified by UN Agencies and other international organizations:
Reviewing the NDC (ambition, including costs and implications, transparency, alignment with national, sectoral and international development priorities, e.g. Sustainable Development Goals)
Preparing for the implementation of the NDC (e.g. institutional arrangements and organizational structures/ clear roles and responsibilities, legal and technical preparations as reference inputs for implementation plan)
Developing an NDC implementation plan and financial strategy
Implementing the NDC and monitoring its progress
Reviewing the current NDC implementation strategy (at the technical and policy level)
Planning for future NDCs
CS NDC survey based on international best practice (publicly available tools prepared by international experts)
CS conducted a survey to assess countries’ capacity development support needs as they prepare for implementation
of the PA and especially the NDCs. The survey addressed countries’ progress on NDC implementation planning, as well as capacity development or technical assistance needs related to NDC implementation.
not covering the technical details of NDCs as these have been largely analysed and there exists a lot of literature
focus on countries that have submitted (I)NDCs only (i.e. State of Palestine missing)
No official international guidance as the completion of the PA Rulebook is expected by COP 24. The assessment broadly followed the steps identified (those leading up to implementation)

3. (I)NDCs of ClimaSouth Countries
Country
Ratification of Paris Agreement
(I)NDCs focus sectors and priority areas
Algeria
20 Oct 2016
Mitigation and adaptation
Energy, industry, transport, agriculture and forests, construction and the environment, and others
Egypt
Signed but not yet ratified
Industry, transportation, agriculture, renewable energy, electricity, waste, industrial processes, oil and natural gas, water, health, tourism, environment
Israel
22 Nov 2016
Electricity generation, other energy sources, transportation, industrial processes, buildings, waste and agriculture
Jordan
4 Nov 2016
Energy, transport, waste management industries, water, agriculture and food security, health, sustainable development, biodiversity and protected areas
Lebanon
Signed but not yet ratified.
PA currently under parliamentary approval
Energy, industrial processes and other product use, agriculture, land-use change and forestry, waste
Morocco
21 Sep 2016
Mainly energy (Energy transition); agriculture, transport, water, waste, forestry, industry, housing and infrastructure.
Tunisia
10 Feb 2017
Mainly energy (75% of total reductions), industry, agriculture, forests and others including coastal zone, water resources, health, tourism
Note that in the transition from INDC to NDC, most NDCs have remained unchanged, with notable exception of Morocco*
Many common focus sectors and priority areas. All CS countries focus on both mitigation and adaptation. Notable inclusion of energy in all NDCs, which reflects the prospected increased use of energy consumption in the MENA region.

4. NDC process in ClimaSouth Countries: Key Findings
CS countries are at different stages in developing plans or strategies that will guide the national implementation of their NDCs.
CS countries have started planning for NDC implementation, undertaking reviews/studies of their NDCs and/or discussions with stakeholders to do so, including with the support of international actors. For instance:
All CS countries have some form of coordinating entity for the NDC process (usually within the Ministry of Environment) but the NDC governance arrangements are not always formalised and the functioning is still in development. Inclusive stakeholder engagement (i.e. coordination mechanism amongst all NDC-relevant stakeholders in and outside government) needs to be supported
Algeria has launched a study to identify the NDC implementation needs and related barriers. Relevant Ministries are being requested to identify obstacles and difficulties in their respective areas.
In Egypt under the National Council for Climate Change (NCCC) three working groups on mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation have been established; inter-ministerial composition; working at the technical level on cross-cutting issues underlying NDC implementation
Israel has developed a National Plan for Implementation of the Paris Agreement (Sept 2016), furthering the national plans to deliver the mitigation targets
With international support, Jordan has carried out a full review of its NDC and it working on developing an NDC implementation plan and a related financial strategy
Lebanon is developing a roadmap to identify gaps and progress indicators on the mitigation part of the INDC, to be discussed by the Council of Ministers. This process is hoped to lead to reporting outputs that will contribute to the development of an NDC implementation plan.
Morocco is developing a low carbon emission strategy, to give strategic direction to the mitigation part of its NDC, and has launched a study to identify needs and barriers to implementation.
Tunisia is currently reviewing the adaptation part of its NDC.
This gives an idea that there has been movement after Paris and more recently Marrakesh.
Good governance is essential to maintain momentum in implementing NDCs. To ensure leadership and ownership of the NDC process by relevant stakeholders, it is important to establish suitable arrangements, clear roles, responsibilities and procedures. These should include the identification and establishment of a coordinating entity that will be responsible for conducting and coordinating the preparation and planning process for the NDC implementation.
The process of policy development and ensuring inclusive stakeholder engagement across diverse actors – national, subnational, municipal, public, private and civil society – is critical to obtaining buy-in and integrating NDC implementation into national policy

5. NDC process in ClimaSouth Countries: Key Findings (cont’d)
All NDCs of CS countries build on existing national policies and programmes related to climate/environment/energy and development sectors, i.e.:
Not all CS countries have formally aligned their NDC process to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) process:
Explicitly linked at the policy level: Morocco
Under consideration/foreseen: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan (post-2020 action), Lebanon, Tunisia
Issue not under specific consideration: Israel
Linkages between the NDC and National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process are at different stages of development in CS countries:
Egypt is preparing a NAP proposal to be submitted to the Green Climate Fund (GCF)
In Israel, recognized as a key element for future work under its National Plan for Implementation of the PA
Launched in March 2017 in Jordan. Formal linkage with the NDC process has yet to be established.
Morocco has initiated a NAP process through the development of a roadmap, which will inform the adaptation goals of the next NDC
Under preparation in Lebanon, envisaged as a bigger component to support the adaptation goals of the next NDC
Jordan’s 2025 Vision and Strategy, an economic and social framework with performance indicators (11% renewable energy, 39% natural gas), as well as National Green Growth Plan and Implementation Roadmap, National Climate Change Policy , National Strategy and Action Plan for Transitioning towards the Green Economy in Jordan
Morocco’s existing laws, strategies, national action plans and a Low Carbon Development Strategy (in drafting)
Tunisia’s National Strategy on Climate Change, National Energy Efficiency Strategy, Tunisian Solar Plan, Adaptation strategies in different sectors
1) Integrating the NDC into existing policy process can support a smoother acceptance of the NDC target and obtain buy-in across key stakeholders. At the same time, it must be recognized that the NDC process represent a more ambitious and more inclusive phase in the global response to climate change. Each country has taken on new commitments and has new obligations to report on progress and increase the ambition of its national contribution over time. Given the scale of action required, it will be important to put in place explicit checks and balances to ensure that those elements of existing processes which affect the achievement of the NDC – such as the achievement of renewable energy targets in energy strategies – are delivered and not overlooked. This will require changes to existing processes to ensure that NDC objectives are prioritised and their contribution to the country’s mitigation and adaptation efforts are maximised.
2) The NDCs provide a bridge between the Paris Agreement and the sustainable development agenda. The process of implementing NDCs provides the opportunity to identify specific activities which can support individual SDGs, and the chance to set up policy-making processes which could provide a blueprint for the national implementation of the SDGs overall.
The achievement of many SDGs is critical to achieving the goals of the PA. Synergies between NDC and SDG processes can help to mainstream climate change in the decision making of other sectoral line ministries. Sectoral NDC targets should be assessed for potential development benefits, as financial resources can be better mobilized if they can contribute to sectoral development targets.
3) No mandate has to date been given for countries to include adaptation in future iterations of NDCs. Countries’ adaptation undertakings and relevant information will be communicated through adaptation communications. The detailed content for adaptation communications remains to be elaborated in the coming UNFCCC negotiations. This leaves it at the discretion of each Party to decide how it will communicate its efforts.
The NAP process provides a country-driven, comprehensive approach to adaptation planning and implementation. It is an appropriate process for achieving the adaptation goals of the NDCs. If a country’s NDC sets out what adaptation outcomes it is aiming for, then the NAP process details how to achieve these through the iterative planning, mainstreaming and stakeholder engagement processes required for effective adaptation. The NAP process is non-prescriptive and it is meant to be country-owned and support country-driven action, hence countries can choose steps and activities based on their needs to support their decision-making on adaptation. The NAP process can be for adaptation what the NDC is for mitigation.
The NDC process can be used to amplify the goals, priorities of the NAP process. The NDC adaptation components can provide the impetus for starting the NAP process. Adaptation is a key priority of CS countries.

6. NDC process in ClimaSouth Countries: Key Findings (cont’d)
Only some CS countries have undertaken specific costing analyses of their NDCs (as laid out in the NDCs), following different approaches:
All CS countries are taking steps to build domestic MRV systems of their NDCs and facing common challenges in this process:
Egypt estimates the cost of the NDC mitigation and adaptation components at USD billion
Jordan has compiled a costing estimate of the NDC process for both the conditional (USD 5.157,250,000) and unconditional target (USD ,000,000 billion), although no specific reviews or estimates for each sub-action under mitigation and adaptation components
Morocco estimates USD 24 billion for the conditional target and USD 50 billion for total reduction target
Tunisia estimates USD 17.5 billion for the total reduction target
the operationalization of existing institutional arrangements due to the difficulty in coordinating mandates between NDC-relevant stakeholders (i.e. lack of reporting systems, information-sharing mechanisms, unavailability of data, lack of quality control systems)
creation of in-house MRV capacity and loss of progress achieved (reliance on external resources to carry out research and data compilation and subsequent inability of local staff to build and keep in-house expertise)
the establishment of appropriate institutional links between MRV frameworks and the NDC implementation process: MRV arrangements need to reflect the inter-institutional approach required for NDC implementation. Only few NDCs of CS countries call specifically for the establishment of MRV systems (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia)
1) Assessing the cost of the NDC is the first step to organise the mobilisation of resources for its implementation, and turn the NDC implementation process into an actionable, investment-ready one.
CS countries have undertaken costing of their NDCs, including through international support. Only certain NDCs specify the estimated costs for achieving the NDC measures. These analyses show different approaches: some the general targets, some mitigation, some adaptation, some both.
A costing of the NDC should target the main sub-actions within each mitigation and adaptation action of the NDC. This can support an identification of the funding gaps and needs, an assessment of the funding status of each priority action and an identification of the level and type of support needed to address each funding gap. In doing so, existing gaps within the national institutional financial frameworks can be revealed. This is particularly important because international public financial sources, such as the GCF, alone will not be able to provide the large-scale investment needed; financing sources such as the private sector and domestic fiscal budgets will therefore be key components.
2) MRV is expected to play the crucial role of serving as the global blueprint for reporting and accounting for climate action under the PA. Tracking and reporting progress on NDC implementation not only serves to meet countries’ international reporting obligations, but also domestic ones (i.e. reporting to parliament and the public to improve transparency, and to policy-makers to inform decisions to update or complement existing mitigation or adaptation actions). Given the overlaps between the SDGs and climate change action, the MRV systems used for NDC implementation can potentially be used to track SDG implementation as well, especially the goals related to mitigation, adaptation and finance.
3) 2020 is the year when global emissions must peak in order to achieve the well-below 2°C long-term goal. The pledges contained in NDCs do not promise enough mitigation action to achieve the well-below 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. Fortunately, the agreement provides for the five-yearly review of pledges, with the expectation of increasing ambition in successive NDCs. The second round of NDCs is in 2020 and the full revision of the NDCs is scheduled for This may be too late to reach the level of ambition to ensure a pathway towards well-below 2°. Therefore, every opportunity needs to be taken to encourage an increase in national emission reduction contributions. Pre-2020 ambition is key to close the emission gap and move forward.

7. Conclusions
CS countries could benefit from further support in the following areas?
Assessing sustainable development impacts of NDCs
Estimating of NDC implementation costs (sectorial mitigation and adaptation perspectives) and recommendations for effective institutional mechanisms (national sources of climate finance/private sector, international sources such as carbon or new market mechanisms/i.e. mitigation bonds)
Awareness raising among political leaders and decision-makers (line ministries other than Ministries of Environment) and strengthening dialogue with industry and private sector entities on key priority topics
Support to MRV for NDC implementation  strengthening inter-ministerial institutional approaches in data collection and monitoring of NDC implementation; data sharing of qualitative and quantitative nature amongst key ministerial NDC stakeholders (i.e. Lebanon)

8. Thank you! 