1. PAMIC Annual Spring Conference State College, PA March 9, 2017
P/C Insurance Market Update: Trends, Challenges and Opportunities in 2017 and Beyond
PAMIC Annual Spring Conference State College, PA March 9, 2017
Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY 10038
Tel:  Cell:  

2. Insurance Industry: Financial Update & Outlook
2016 Was a Reasonably Good Year
2017: A Repeat of 2016? 2
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3. P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes, First Three Quarters of Each Year, 2007-2016
The 2016 result is below the average of $36.8 billion
Recession
Highest 9-month total since 2007
Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; Insurance Information Institute.

4. P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes 1991-2016:Q3
2016 profits likely weaker than in recent years
*ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.2% ROAS in 2014, 9.8% ROAS in 2013, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009
Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; Insurance Information Institute.

5. Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975-2016
If historical patterns hold, next ROE peak could be in 2017.
10 Years
10 Years
11 Years?
9 Years
*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers.
Sources: Insurance Information Institute; Natl. Assoc. of Insurance Comm.; ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; A.M. Best, Conning.

6. Policyholder Surplus, Quarterly, 2006:Q4–2016:Q3
Surplus as of 9/30/16 stood at $688.3B
($ Billions)
2007:Q3 Pre-Crisis Peak
Drop due to near- record 2011 CAT losses
Recession
Surplus has grown by only 2.5% over the last 9 quarters
The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.77 of NPW, close to the strongest claims-paying status in its history.
2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business.
The P/C insurance industry entered 2017 in very strong financial condition.
Sources: ISO, A.M .Best. 6 6
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7. Underwriting Performance Premiums

8. Personal Lines NPW Growth, 1996-2016E
5.7%
Personal lines NPW has lately been growing at about 5% per year.
Note: Data include state funds beginning in E is first three quarters.
Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.

9. Commercial & Personal Lines NPW Growth: 1996-2016E
5.7%
-1.3%
Commercial Lines is Prone to Much More Cyclical Volatility Than Personal Lines.
Note: Data include state funds beginning in E is first three quarters.
Sources: A.M. Best; Insurance Information Institute.

10. Net Written Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): First Three Quarters, 2006-2016
Total Net Written Premiums for the first nine months rose more slowly in 2016 than in any year since 2010.
Sources: A.M. Best ( ), ISO ( ).

11. Net Premium Growth (All P/C Lines): Annual Change, 1971-2016:Q3
1975–78
1984–87
2000–03
2016.Q3: 2.6% 2015: 3.4%
2014: 4.1%
2013: 4.4%
2012: 4.2%
Net Written Premiums Fell 0.7% in 2007 (First Decline Since 1943) by 2.0% in 2008, and 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930–33.
Net Written Premiums rose more slowly in each of the last three years vs. the year before, despite strong increases in personal lines premiums
Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods *2016 is first nine months
Sources: A.M. Best ( ), ISO ( ).

12. Does the Economy Drive Business Property Insurance Premiums
Does the Economy Drive Business Property Insurance Premiums? Direct Written Premium Growth (CMP Non-Liability) vs. Year-Earlier Change in Nominal GDP
Direct Written Premiums for the Non-Liability portion of Commercial Multiple Peril Insurance track one-year-earlier Nominal GDP—not year by year but fairly well.
Sources: A.M. Best 2016 Aggregates & Averages, p. 568; U.S. Commerce Dept, Bureau of Economic Analysis; I.I.I.

13. Net Underwriting Gains & Losses, First Three Quarters, 2007-2016
3 Consecutive Years of U/W Profits; 1st time since
Net Underwriting Losses Have Been “the Norm.”
2013/14/15 were welcome respites from 2011/12, which were among the costliest years for insured disaster losses in U.S. history. Longer-term trend is for more – not fewer – costly events.
*Estimates through 12/31/15 in 2015 dollars.
Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars).
Sources: Property Claims Service, a Verisk Analytics business; Insurance Information Institute.

14. P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001-2016*
3 Consecutive Years of U/W Profits; 1st time since
Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses.
Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market
Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6)
This is actually an underwriting loss.
Sandy
*Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers is first nine months Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = 97.0.
Sources: A.M. Best; ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; E is from A.M. Best P&C Review and Preview, February 16, 2016.

15. U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses
2012 was the 3rd Most Expensive Year Ever for Insured Cat Losses.
2013/14/15 Were Welcome Respites from 2011/12, Which Were Among the Costliest Years for Insured Disaster Losses in U.S. History. Longer-term Trend is for More – Not Fewer – Costly Events.
2016 is first nine months
Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars).
Sources: Property Claims Service, a Verisk Analytics business; Insurance Information Institute.

16. Investments Investment Performance is a Key Driver of Profitability
Depressed Yields Will Necessarily Influence Underwriting & Pricing

17. US Treasury Note 10-Year Yields: A Long Downward Trend, 2000–2017*
Yields on 10-Year US Treasury Notes have been below 3% for 5 years: 10-year bonds bought in 2006 at 5% will be reinvested at 2.5% for 10 more years
The end of the downtrend?
Since nearly 50% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 5-year or longer maturities, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come.
*Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through January 2017.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. 17 17
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18. P/C Insurer Portfolio Yields, 2002-2015
P/C Carrier Yields Have Been Falling for Over a Decade, Reflecting the Long Downtrend in Prevailing Interest Rates.
Even as Prevailing Rates Rise in the Next Few Years, Portfolio Yields Are Unlikely to Rise Quickly: Low Yields of Recent Years Are “Baked In” to Future Returns.
Sources: NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute.

19. Property/Casualty Insurance Industry Investment Gain1: 1994-2016
If the industry portfolio yield were 4%, the investment gains would be $15 billion higher
Total Investment Gains through the first nine months of 2016 were down due to lower results in both investment income and realized capital gains.
1Investment gains consist primarily of interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses.
*2005 figure includes special one-time dividend of $3.2B **2016 is first nine months, annualized
Sources: ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute.

20. P/C Insurance Industry Net Investment Gain1 First Three Quarters, 2007-2016
The ($5.1B) 11.6% drop in 2016 vs reversed a small upward trend from The drop was due to lower results in both investment income and realized capital gains.
1Investment gains consist primarily of bond interest, stock dividends and realized capital gains and losses.
*Sources: ISO, a Verisk Analytics company; NAIC data, sourced from S&P Global Market Intelligence; Insurance Information Institute.

21. On February 13 the yield was 2.43%.
February 2017: Quarterly Yield Forecasts for 10-Year US Treasury Bonds in
Yield (%)
On February 13 the yield was 2.43%.
Virtually all of the 53 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey expect continual increases in the yield of long-term bonds in
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (2/17); Insurance Information Institute

22. Historical Analysis of Pennsylvania P/C Insurance Markets
Analysis by Line and Nearby State Comparisons 22

23. Profitability: Return on Net Worth23
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24. RNW All Lines: PA vs. U.S.,
10-Year Average
US: 6.7% PA: 7.8%
P/C insurance in Pennsylvania has been somewhat more profitable than in the U.S. overall in most years of the last decade
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 24 24

25. RNW PP Auto: PA vs. U.S.,
Average
US: 6.2% PA: 7.0%
Pennsylvania’s PP Auto RNW topped the US overall in every year but two in the last decade
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 25 25

26. PP Auto: 10-Year Average RNW PA & Nearby States
Pennsylvania PP Auto profitability is about even with most of its neighbors, but far below Ohio
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

27. RNW Homeowners: PA vs. U.S., 2005-2014
Average
US: 3.8% PA: 9.4%
Pennsylvania’s HO RNW topped the US overall in every year but three in the last decade
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 27 27

28. Homeowners: 10-Year Average RNW PA & Nearby States
Pennsylvania HO profitability is above two of its neighbors and well below two others
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

29. RNW Commercial Multi-Peril: PA vs. U.S., 2005-2014
Average
US: 6.4% PA: 8.3%
Pennsylvania’s CMP RNW topped the US overall in every year but three in the last decade
Sources: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 29 29

30. Commercial Multiple-Peril: 10-Year Average RNW, PA & Neighbors
Pennsylvania Commercial Multi-Peril profitability was below 3 of its 4 regional neighbors
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

31. RNW Workers Compensation: PA vs. U.S., 2005-2014
Average
US: 6.3% PA: 6.6%
Pennsylvania’s WC RNW trailed the US overall in every year but two in the last decade, but with less volatility.
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute 31 31

32. Workers Comp: 10-Year Average RNW PA & Nearby States
Pennsylvania Workers Comp profitability is above that of its neighbors with competitive markets
Source: NAIC, Insurance Information Institute

33. Personal Lines Exposure Growth Analysis33
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34. Growth of PP Auto Exposures34
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35. Auto/Light Truck Sales Are Forecast to Continue at Record Levels
(Millions of Units)
We’re back to new vehicle sales levels last seen pre-recession
Yearly car/light truck sales will likely continue at current levels, in part replacing cars that were held onto in But rising interest rates could restrain demand for new vehicles.
Sources: US Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, 2/17 issue (forecasts); Insurance Information Institute.
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36. America is Driving More Again: 2000-2016
Percent Change, Miles Driven*
Fastest Growth Since 2000
In the last few years, sharp growth in miles driven. The more people drive, the more often their cars crash.
* : Moving 12-month total vs. prior year data through Nov. 2016, the latest available, vs. Nov Sources: Federal Highway Administration; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute. 36

37. Why Are People Driving More? Is it Jobs? 2006:Q1-2016:Q4
Billions of Miles Driven in Prior Year
Millions Employed
Recession
People Drive to and from Work and Drive to Entertainment.
Out of Work, They Curtail Their Movement.
Note: miles driven for 2016 is through Q3 (latest available as of 1/12/2017) Sources: Federal Highway Administration; Seasonally Adjusted Employed from Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID CES ); Insurance Information Institute. 37

38. More People Working and Driving => More Collisions, 2006:Q1-2016:Q4
Overall Collision Claims Per 100 Insured Vehicles
Number Employed, Millions
There are not only more accidents, but accidents per 100 insured vehicles is up too. This is what matters to insurers.
Recession
When people are out of work, they drive less. When they get jobs, they drive to work, helping drive claim frequency higher.
Sources: Seasonally Adjusted Employed from Bureau of Labor Statistics; Rolling Four-Qtr Avg. Frequency from Insurance Services Office; Insurance Information Institute. 38
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39. Growth of Homeowners/Renters Exposures39
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40. Forecast: Continued Growth in Private Housing Unit Starts, 1995-2018F
Rising mortgage rates could dampen the demand for new residential construction
(Millions of Units)
Housing unit starts plunged 72% from , down 1.49 million, to lowest level since records began in 1959
Housing starts are climbing slowly. Recently, the fastest growth is in multi-unit residences. Personal lines exposure will grow, and commercial insurers with Workers Comp, Construction risk exposure and Surety also benefit.
Sources: US Department of Commerce (history); Blue Chip Economic Indicators (2/2017), forecasts; Insurance Information Institute.
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41. Number of Owner- & Renter-Occupied Housing Units, U. S
Number of Owner- & Renter-Occupied Housing Units, U.S.: Quarterly, 1990:Q1-2016:Q4
Millions of Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Millions of Owner-Occupied Housing Units
Number of owner-occupied units has been stuck at roughly 75 million units since 2005:Q4
Latest renter-occupied was million units in 2016:Q4
Trough in 2004:Q2 at million units
Since 2004 the number of renter-occupied housing units has grown by about million units (+34%), but there has been no growth in the number of owner-occupied housing units in 12 years. When will this end?
Sources: US Census Bureau at Table 8; Insurance Information Institute.
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42. Rental-occupied Housing Units as % of Total Occupied Units, Quarterly, 1990:Q1-2016:Q3
Trend down began in 1994:Q3 from 36.2% in Q2.
Latest was 36.5% in 2016:Q3.
Increasing percent of renters
Increasing percent of owners
Trough in 2004:Q2 and Q4 at 30.8%
Since the “great recession” ended in June 2009, renters have occupied 5.7 million more units (+15.6%)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Residential Vacancies & Home Ownership in the Third Quarter of 2016 (released Oct 27, 2016) and earlier issues; Insurance Information Institute.

43. U.S.: Percent of Private Housing Unit Starts In Multi-Unit Projects: 1990-2016
Units in Multiple-Unit Projects as Percent of Total Units
A NEW NORMAL? In 7 of the last 9 years, over 30% of housing unit starts were in 5+-unit projects
For the U.S. as a whole, the trend toward multi-unit housing projects (vs. single-unit homes) is recent. Commercial insurers with Workers Comp, Construction risk exposure, and Surety benefit
Based on seasonally-adjusted data.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Insurance Information Institute calculations.

44. Rental Vacancy Rates: Quarterly, 1990-2016:Q4
Peak vacancy rate 11.1% in 2009:Q3
Vacancy rate 10.4% in 2004:Q1
Latest vacancy rate was 6.9% in 2016:Q4
Before the 2001 recession, rental vacancy rates were %. We’re below those levels now => more multi-unit construction?
Sources: US Census Bureau, Table 1; Insurance Information Institute. 44

45. I.I.I. Poll: Renters Insurance
Percentage of Renters Who Have Renters Insurance,
Percentage Of Renters With Renters Insurance Continues to Increase.
Source: Insurance Information Institute Annual Pulse Survey.
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46. Giant Age Cohort (Millenials) Is Approaching Home-Buying Stage
Number of People in 2016 (Millions)
Average Age, 1st Time Homebuyer
Millennial Generation
Average Age, Repeat Homebuyer
If prior patterns hold, the number of homes bought by current renters, and the number of new homes built, will rise in coming years
Sources: Census Bureau; CoreLogic; Insurance Information Institute.
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47. Growth in Number of Households => Increased Demand for Housing
Net Change in Number of Occupied Residences (Thousands)
A spike, not a trend
Housing bubble
Bubble burst
If prior patterns hold, the number of homes bought by current renters, and the number of new homes built, will rise in coming years
Sources: Census Bureau; CoreLogic; Insurance Information Institute.
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48. Catastrophes & U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses48
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49. Tornadoes, Hail, and Wind Events in Pennsylvania, 2016
Tornadoes (red)
Hail (green)
High Wind (blue)
Source: .
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50. Number of Large Hail Storms in Pennsylvania, Yearly, 2000-2016
Yearly Averages : : : 55
Is the number of large hail storms that strike Pennsylvania each year lower than before? Based on the last 4 years, it seems so.
Sources: ; Insurance Information Institute.
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51. Number of High Wind Events in Pennsylvania, Yearly, 2000-2016
Avg., : 422
Is there a pattern here? Based on the last 17 years, it certainly doesn’t seem so.
Sources: ; Insurance Information Institute.
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52. Number of Tornadoes in Pennsylvania, Yearly, 2000-2016
Yearly Avg., : 12
Is there a pattern here? Based on the last 17 years, it certainly doesn’t seem so.
Sources: ; Insurance Information Institute.
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53. P/C Industry Homeowners Claim Frequency, Pennsylvania, 1997-2013
Claims Paid per 100 Exposures
Non-CAT claim frequency in Pennsylvania is now less than half of what it was 17 years ago
Sources: Insurance Research Council, “Trends in Homeowners Insurance Claims,” p.86; Insurance Information Institute

54. P/C Industry HO Average Claim Severity, Pennsylvania, 1997-2013
Current dollars
Sources: Insurance Research Council, “Trends in Homeowners Insurance Claims,” 2015 edition, p. 86; Insurance Information Institute

55. P/C Industry HO Average Claim Severity, Inflation-adjusted, Pennsylvania, 1997-2013
Constant 2016 dollars
Sources: Insurance Research Council, “Trends in Homeowners Insurance Claims,” 2015 edition, p. 86; Insurance Information Institute

56. The Economic Environment for the U.S. P/C Insurance Business
The Strength of the Economy Will Affect the Exposure Base Across Most Lines

57. U. S. Post-Recession Real GDP Growth,
U.S. Post-Recession Real GDP Growth,* Quarterly (Seasonally-Adjusted at an Annual Rate)
Since the recession ended, the economy has rarely grown faster than 3% (at an annual rate) in a calendar quarter and never sustained that rate for a year.
Demand for insurance should grow slowly in 2017 as real GDP growth continues at a moderate pace.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; estimate for 2017:Q1 from Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank GDPnow, Feb. 27, 2017, at ; Insurance Information Institute.

58. February 2017: Quarterly Real GDP Forecasts for 2017-18
Real GDP Growth (annual rate) (%)
Virtually all of the 53 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey expect little change in the economy’s growth rate throughout
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (2/17); Insurance Information Institute

59. Yearly U.S. Real GDP Growth: Range of Forecasts, 2017-2021
All Forecasts Expect U.S. Growth to be Fairly Steady in ; The Main Difference Among Them is the Level of Economic Activity.
Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, February 2017 issue for ; Oct issue for 2019–2021; Insurance Information Institute.

60. State-by-State Leading Indicators through May 2017
Near-term growth forecasts vary widely by state. Strongest growth = blue (over 4.5%); dark green (1.5%-4.5%); then light green; then gray; weakest = yellow
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Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at , released August 29, 2016; Next release is September 30, 2016; Insurance Information Institute.

61. Leading Indicators, Pennsylvania and Neighbors, through May 2017
Sources: file:///C:/Users/stevenw/Downloads/LeadingIndexes1216.pdf ; I.I.I.
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Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at , released August 29, 2016; Next release is September 30, 2016; Insurance Information Institute.

62. Latest 18 months: inconsistent but now rising strongly
ISM Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), Jan Feb. 2017
Latest 18 months: inconsistent but now rising strongly
The manufacturing sector expanded in 67 of the 70 months from January 2010 through October It contracted in November 2015 through February 2016 and again in August but is expanding again.
Sources: Institute for Supply Management; Insurance Information Institute.

63. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), Jan
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), Jan Jan. 2017
The non-manufacturing sector expanded in every month after January The pace of expansion roared ahead in , slowed a bit in 2016, but ended strong.
Sources: Institute for Supply Management via ; Insurance Information Institute.

64. New Bankruptcy Law Takes Effect Below pre-recession level
Business Bankruptcy Filings: Three Years at Remarkably Low Levels (1994:Q1 – 2016:Q4)
(Thousands of filings)
New Bankruptcy Law Takes Effect
Recessions in orange
Below pre-recession level
Business bankruptcies in were below both the Great Recession levels and the 2003:Q3-2005:Q1 period (the best five-quarter stretch in the last 20 years). Bankruptcies restrict exposure growth in all commercial lines.
Sources: U.S. Courts at ; Insurance Information Institute 64
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65. Return on Net Worth (RNW) Largest Lines: 2005-2014 Average
Commercial lines have tended to be more profitable than personal lines over the past decade
Percent
Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.

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All Lines 10-Year ( ) RNW Avg. Varies Widely by State and Region
U.S. 7.7%
New England
Southeast
Mid-Atlantic
This chart and the succeding one show that unemployment rates vary widely, not only by region, but within regions.
Source: NAIC 66
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67. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C
All Lines 10-Year ( ) RNW Avg. Varies Widely by State and Region
Southwest
Mountain
Far West
Great Lakes
Great Plains
In May for the first time in 2 years, Nevada overtook Michigan as the state with the highest unemployment rate
Source: NAIC 67
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68. New Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment, Quarterly, 1999-2016
2016:Q4 at $ B
$ Billions*
Growth in new business investment was weak in 2016
Insurance exposures for business investment will continue growing in 2017, and commercial insurance premium volume with them.
*Quarterly, at seasonally adjusted annual rate
Sources: Federal Reserve Board at National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes. 68
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69. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, Chained, Yearly, 2000 – 2015
Millions
Recession
Even after adjusting for inflation, since the end of the Great Recession consumer spending has been growing at about 2 percent per year, spurring economic growth.
Sources: ; Insurance Information Institute
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70. We’re Gaining Jobs Fairly Steadily, Mainly in the Private Sector
Labor Market Trends
We’re Gaining Jobs Fairly Steadily, Mainly in the Private Sector 70
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71. After a strong 2014-15, the pace of job growth has slowed somewhat.
Nonfarm Employment, Quarterly Change, 2011 – 2016*
Thousands
After a strong , the pace of job growth has slowed somewhat.
*Seasonally adjusted; data plotted are simple averages of monthly numbers Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute
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72. Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Still Falling?
January 2000 through January 2017, Seasonally Adjusted (%)
U-6 went from 8.0% in March 2007 to 17.5% in October 2009
For U-6, 8.0% to 9.5% is “normal.”
U-6 was 9.4% in Jan
“Headline” unemployment was 4.8% in Jan % to 5.5% is “normal.”
Based on the latest readings, it appears that the job market is now close to “normal”
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. 72
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73. Full-time vs. Part-time Employment, Quarterly, 2003-2016: WC Implications
Full time, millions
Part-time, millions
New full-time peak
Recession
Pre-recession, most new jobs were full-time
Recession shifted employment growth from full-time to part-time
The Great Recession shifted employment from full-time to part-time. Full-time employment is finally above its pre-recession peak, but part-time hasn’t receded.
Data are seasonally-adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor; Insurance Information Institute.

74. Labor Market Slack: Elevated Number of Involuntary Part-time Workers
Jan 2017: 5.8 million
In less than 18 months, 4.5 million additional people were involuntarily working part time
The “normal” range (since 1992)
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75. Part-time Employment: Voluntary vs. Involuntary, Quarterly, 2003-2016
Voluntary, millions
Involuntary, millions
New voluntary peak
Pre-recession, most part-time was voluntary
Recession
Involuntary part-time not quite back to low pre-recession levels
The Great Recession shifted some part-time employment from voluntary to involuntary but that is now reversing. Total part-time employment is flat, but its composition has changed.
Data are seasonally-adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor; Insurance Information Institute.

76. Number of “Discouraged Workers”: Still Dropping? Jan 1994 – Jan 2017
Thousands
A “discouraged worker” in a month did not actively look for work in the prior month for reasons such as --thinks no work available, --could not find work, --lacks schooling or training, --thinks employer thinks too young or old, and other types of discrimination.
Latest reading: 532,000 in Jan
Normal
In recent good times, the number of discouraged workers ranged from 200, ,000 ( ) or from 300, ,000 ( ).
Notes: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates). 76
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77. www.iii.org Thank you for your time and your attention!
Insurance Information Institute Online:
Thank you for your time and your attention!
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