1. Polling Performance and Campaign Coverage in the
2016 Presidential Election
in the United States
Michael W. Traugott Center for Political Studies University of Michigan
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

2. Organization of the Talk
Checking on the performance of the polls: Evaluating national and state polls Checking on the performance of modelers Checking on the performance of journalists Can we reasonably expect to do better?
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

3. Current State of the Vote*
Difference
Obama/Clinton
Romney/Trump
Other
* Millions of votes
Voter Turnout % 58.8%
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

4. Relative Party Vote in Recent Elections
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

5. Another Way to Look at the Vote
Out of 231,556,622 voting eligible Americans
Hillary Clinton 28.2%
Donald Trump 27.1%
Others, unvoted %
DID NOT VOTE 41.3%
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

6. Media in the 2016 Campaign: News
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

7. Errors in the National Polls
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

8. Errors in the State Polls
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

9. Sources of Errors in Samples
Sample frames and designs Non-response bias Weighting algorithms
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

10. Variations in Sample Composition
Bloomberg Poll Decoder 11/16/16
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

11. Explanations for Sample Variation
“Shy Trump voters” – no evidence Nonresponse bias Relative enthusiasm of supporters Non-college educated males Weighting issues (reference groups) First time voters for Trump Urban-rural turnout differentials
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

12. Problems with Likely Voter Models
What is the “reference” model or election? What does it mean to have a “change” election? What about shifting campaign strategies and techniques?
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

13. 2012 Presidential Result in 9 Battleground States
Economic Dinner Club November 21, 2016

14. Estimation Errors in the 2012 Battleground States
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

15. 2016 Presidential Results in 11 Battleground States
Obama won 10 out of these 11 states (not N. Carolina) and Trump won 7 of 11in 2016, totaling 92 electoral votes out of 238 needed (almost 40%).
Economic Dinner Club November 21, 2016

16. Estimation Errors in the 2016 Battleground States
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

17. Turnout and Trump Support
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

18. How the Media Got It Wrong
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

19. How the Media Got It Wrong
Failure to distinguish consistently between the popular vote and Electoral College totals
Failure to explain assumptions used by pollsters and modelers
Failure to distinguish between odds and chances of winning
Severe “confirmation bias”
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

20. Was It the Polls or the Modelers?
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

21. What Do the Exit Polls Tell Us?pp pp pp pp
From NPR 11/12/16 pp pp
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

22. Presidential Vote and Party Identification
From NPR 11/12/16
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

23. Time of Presidential Vote Decision
From NPR 11/12/16
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

24. Important Candidate Qualities
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016

25. What’s Needed Going Forward
Continued emphasis on transparency from pollsters and modelers Production of multiple estimates based on differential turnout parameters More and better training of journalists Get polls back to serving the analysis function at which they excel, less horse race
INE – CIDE - WAPOR Conference December 5-6, 2016