1. The Renewable Energy Transition Implications for Supply Chains
Michael Taylor, Senior Analyst
Den Haag, 23 June 2017

2. Released 20 March 2017 at Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue in Support of G20

3. Rising demand in developing economies
BAU is not an option
Rising demand in developing economies
Climate change costs are enormous
Local air pollution critical in many large cities
Rapid technological change
Economic and social benefits are compelling

4. Auction and PPA price trends
Dramatic convergence of solar PV and onshore wind to same LCOE range
But some of these projects are “boundary” projects, difficult to replicate for solar PV
Economics of renewable power generation are improving rapidly

5. REMAP high level projecti
REmap high-level projections
REMAP high level projecti
More renewables
Renewables would account for two thirds of total emission reductions in 2050

6. Development in CO2 emissions by sector
Main sources of emissions in 2050
By 2050, total energy-related CO2 emissions will need to decrease to below 10 Gt/yr
CO2 emissions from the power and buildings sectors will be almost eliminated

7. Rapid expansion of markets for techs/fuels
Transport
Will traditional car makers able to catch up?
Significant biofuel trade
Materials needs (e.g. rare earth for EVs)
Industry
Industry is the most challenging sector
Buildings
Significant acceleration of buildings renovation
Power
Growing equipment industries
Materials needs (e.g. for batteries, inverters)

8. The changing power generation supply chain
units needed
Onshore wind
+1.33 million 3 MW wind turbines or
+1.14 million 3.5 MW wind turbines
Offshore wind
39k 10 MW turbines or
26K 15 MW turbines
Solar PV
15.5 billion 400W panels
18.7 million tonnes polysilicon
36.6 kt silver (annual prod 27kt)

9. Materials efficiency: An opportunity

10. Thank you! www.irena.org www.twitter.com/irena

11. Outdoor air pollution health benefits alone exceed the costs.
Improved health, reduced climate change
Savings due to reduced externalities exceed the costs by a factor between two and six in 2050.
Outdoor air pollution health benefits alone exceed the costs.

12. Increase in global GDP
Decarbonising the energy sector in line with REmap increases global GDP by around 0.8% by compared to the Reference Case
That is the equivalent of almost 19 trillion USD in increased economic activity between today and 2050.