1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization
Chapter 11
Public Opinion and Political Socialization

2. Key topics Role of public opinion in politics Polls:
Types
Important factors in the measurements
What influences our political outlooks?

3. How are polls used in politics?
To measure public opinion
To influence public opinion
To inform and influence politicians
To track elections

4. Important in conducting polls
Content:
What questions are asked?
Wording
Is it leading?
Is it misleading?
Is it clear?
Does it ask more than one question?
Intensity choices in answers
Sample selection
How people are contacted
Timing

5. T11-4
Comprehensive: Figure 11.3, Page 372
Why does question wording matter? Source: CBS News/New York Times Poll, February 5–10, 2010. 5

6. Figure 11.5- Opinion on Gas Taxes

7. Comprehensive: Analyzing Visuals, Page 374; Brief: Analyzing Visuals, Page 285

8. Good polls Appropriate wording Accurate sample: random
Still a margin of error and mistakes:
Margin of Error: 4% usually

9. Election polling Tracking changes over time and predicting
Has gotten more accurate
Still imperfect

10. T11-2
How successful has the Gallup Poll been? Sources: Marty Baumann, “How One Polling Firm Stacks Up,” USA Today (October 27, 1992): 13A; 1996 data from Mike Mokrzycki, “Pre-election Polls’ Accuracy Varied,” Atlanta Journal and Constitution (November 8, 1996): A12; 2000 data from Gallup Organization, “Poll Releases,” November 7, 2000; 2004 and 2008 data from USA Today and CNN/Gallup Tracking Poll,
Comprehensive: Figure 11.1, Page 368; Brief: Figure 10.1, Page 280 10

11. T11-3
Comprehensive: Figure 11.2, Page 370; Brief: Figure 10.2, Page 281
What does a daily tracking poll for the 2008 presidential election look like? Source: USA Today and CNN/Gallup Poll results, 11

12. How we form Political Opinions
Personal Beliefs and Values
Formed through Political Socialization (Influences):
Demographic characteristics
Religion
Race, Ethnicity
Gender
Age
Economic Status
Region of the Country
Family – parents #1
School and Peers
Media
Impact of Events

13. Figure 11.2- Religious Self-Identification

14. T11-7
Comprehensive: Figure 11.4, Page 380; Brief: Figure 10.3, Page 289
What are the ideological self-identifications of first-year college students? Sources: Reprinted from Harold W. Stanley and Richard G. Niemi, Vital Statistics on American Politics, 2009–2010 (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2009), 124. 14

15. Do men and women think differently about political issues?
Comprehensive: Table 11.1, Page 376; Brief: Table 10.1, Page 286
Do men and women think differently about political issues? 15

16. How we form Political Opinions
Personal Benefits: What’s in it for me?
Political Knowledge
The less people know, the more their opinion can be influenced (or manipulated)
Cues from Leaders
President “majesty of the office”
Political commentators

17. Public Opinion on War
Of course the people don't want war. But after all, it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it's always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it's a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger.

18. Said by Hermann Goering,
Nazi party leader, second in command of the Third Reich, and commander of the Air Force, in an interview during the Nuremberg Trials after WWII. (He was convicted of crimes against humanity. Committed suicide before his sentenced hanging.)