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America’s Current Politics: The Consumer’s Perspective

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1 America’s Current Politics: The Consumer’s Perspective
Scott Keeter Senior Survey Advisor Consumer Federation of America Consumer Assembly 2017 May 10, 2017 May 11, 2017

2 What is Pew Research Center?
Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. The Center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research. It studies U.S. politics and policy; journalism and media; internet, science and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and trends; and U.S. social and demographic trends. All of the Center’s reports are available at Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. Follow us on Twitter at: @pewresearch @facttank May 11, 2017

3 Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress
Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017

4 Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress
Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017

5 In historical terms, low approval ratings in Trump’s first few months
Presidential job approval (%) Source: Survey conducted April 5-11, 2017. May 11, 2017

6 Presidential job approval (%)
Partisan gap in Trump approval ratings much wider than for recent presidents Presidential job approval (%) Source: Survey conducted April 5-11, 2017 May 11, 2017

7 May 11, 2017

8 Republican views of Congress improve
May 11, 2017

9 Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress
Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017

10 May 11, 2017

11 May 11, 2017

12 May 11, 2017

13 Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress
Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017

14 May 11, 2017

15 May 11, 2017

16 May 11, 2017

17 May 11, 2017

18 May 11, 2017

19 May 11, 2017

20 May 11, 2017

21 Public mood shifts in direction of bigger government
% who say they would rather have… Source: Survey conducted Apr. 5-11, 2017. May 11, 2017

22 May 11, 2017

23 May 11, 2017

24 Overview of opinion about President Trump and Congress
Political polarization gets worse Opinions about government performance Finally, what about the polls last year? May 11, 2017

25 May 11, 2017

26 May 11, 2017

27 Errors in state polling were worse
in 2016 than in recent years Figure 2. Average Error in Vote Margin in State Presidential Polls, Source – Figures for 2000 to 2012 computed from data made public by FiveThirtyEight.com. May 11, 2017

28 But national polling was quite accurate
Average Error in Vote Margin in National Presidential Polls, Note – The 2016 figures are based on polls completed within 13 days of the election. Figures for prior years are from the National Council for Public Polls analysis of final poll estimates, some occurring before the 13-day period. Figures for 1936 to 1960 are based only on Gallup. May 11, 2017

29 The Late Deciders (in the last week)
Rep-Dem Margin Trump/Clinton % Share (%) National +5 47-42 13 Wisconsin +29 59-30 14 Pennsylvania +17 54-37 15 Florida 55-38 11 Michigan +11 50-39 Ohio +3 46-43 Virginia -3 42-45 May 11, 2017

30 Voters who disliked both candidates preferred Trump to Clinton
Favorable impression… In 2012, just 5% disliked both candidates! NBC News exit poll, November 8, 2016 May 11, 2017

31 America’s Current Politics: The Consumer’s Perspective
Scott Keeter Senior Survey Advisor Consumer Federation of America Consumer Assembly 2017 May 10, 2017 May 11, 2017

32 Trump’s chances as described by polling aggregators and modelers
May 11, 2017

33 Trump’s chances as seen in “risk characterization theater”
Source: Justin H. Gross, based on Rifken and Bouwer’s The Illusion of Certainty: Health Benefits and Risks. Washington Post, Nov. 29, 2016 May 11, 2017

34 Presidential candidate preference, by educational attainment
Wide education gaps in 2016 preferences, among all voters and among whites Presidential candidate preference, by educational attainment Source: Based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Poll, as reported by CNN. May 11, 2017

35 Democratic advantage among the youngest voters declines in 2016
Presidential candidate preference, by age Source: Based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Poll, as reported by CNN. May 11, 2017

36 How whites, blacks and Hispanics voted in 2016 election
Presidential candidate preference, by race or ethnicity Source: Based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Poll, as reported by CNN. May 11, 2017

37 Gender gap in vote choice: 1972-2016
Presidential candidate preference, by gender Source: Based on exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Poll, as reported by CNN. May 11, 2017

38 Immigrants are seen as more of a strength than a burden
% who say immigrants today … % who say immigrants strengthen country… Source: Survey conducted Nov. 30-Dec. 5, 2016. May 11, 2017

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