1. Creating Platforms for Sharing Seasonal Outlooks
Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early-warning System (RIMES)/ADPC
AR Subbiah, RIMES/ADPC
Creating Platforms for Sharing Seasonal Outlooks
SOUTH ASIAN CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (SASCOF – 1),
Pune, India, April, 2010

2. RIMES
(RIMES) was formally established on 30 April 2009, with the signing (at Male) of an international cooperation agreement by Cambodia, Comoros, Lao PDR, Maldives, and Seychelles
Registered as Regional Organization with UN (14th September 2009)
Twenty-one (21) other countries are in various stages of consideration and approval for signing the cooperation agreement
RIMES aims to provide regional early warning services, and build capacity of its Member States in the early warning of tsunami and hydro-meteorological hazards.

3. 7 Million commuters per day, highest passenger density

4. User needs modulate the Climate Info to be generated – “handshake”
The Interface
Global, Regional and National efforts - variety of tools Modeling Systems, Downscaling techniques and Empirical Methods
Still confronted with – “low skill”, “limited skill”, “uncertainties”, “too much noise”
Indonesian farmers – “Is it going to be a “good” rainy season or “bad” – to be used in the decision to plant rice or maize
Reservoir management
Embankment management for preparation to flood risks
Glacial lake monitoring – flood risks
Power management
Insurance and re-insurance
…..
User needs modulate the Climate Info to be generated – “handshake”

5. Climate Information Applications at Community Level
The six‐step CFA methodology consists of:
Assessment of user needs and existing capacities of national institutions to meet these needs (need/capacity assessments)
Assessment of relevance of latest scientific information to meet these needs (assessment of available science/technology)
Developing partnerships and enhancing capacities of national institutions to generate climate information
Institutional development to communicate information to end users (institutionalization of end‐to‐end system: pilot demonstrations, replication)
Applying information to enable pro‐active decision making
Monitoring and evaluation of applicability of information

6. Conceptual Steps in the End-to-End System for Communities
09/23/09
Conceptual Steps in the End-to-End System for Communities
Overall vulnerability reduction through development interventions
Monitoring and Generation of Early Warning
Customization and communication to sectoral agencies
Sector agencies translate into disaster scenario
Alert /warning messages issued to specific agencies in the field
Coordinated Community response to the alert or warning in terms of preparedness
Met Service
Monitoring
Early Warning Systems
Customizatio n and disseminatio n protocols
How effectively forecasts are translated to disaster preparedness relevant information eg Flood Warnings
Involvement of grass root organizations in mobilization of community level response
Provincial Governmental actions etc.
Poverty alleviation and sustainable development 6

7. Global, Regional Model Products
Managing climate risks by connecting science, institutions, and society
Global, Regional Model Products
Regional Products
Probabilistic location specific hydro-met & geo information
Risk Thresholds
Impact Outlooks
Hazard Derivatives
Risk Management tools
RIMES/ADPC, Natl. DRR Agencies, Communities
ECMWF, NCEP,
CMA, UKMO

8. The Monsoon Forum process
Meteorological agency generates forecast
Meteorological agency convenes Forum with intermediaries & users
Users discuss potential impacts & prepare response options + recommendations for long term policy/institutional reforms
Reporting back to home agencies and implement recommendations
Monitor & document the season and give feedback to meteorological agency 8 8

9. Features of the Monsoon/ Climate Forum
To be conducted at least twice a year (just before monsoon onset & post-season verification)
Organized around a regular phenomenon (i.e. monsoon)
Multi-sectoral and multi-level (national + regional forums)
National Hydro-Meteorological Service (NHMS) as convener of the event
Event-based interaction but with long-term goals

10. Some examples of forecast provider & user forums in Asia
Philippines
Climate Forum (non-targeted, various sectors); Local Climate Forum (provincial level)
Myanmar
Monsoon Forum
Mongolia
Winter/Spring Forum
Indonesia
National Monsoon Forum
Science and Policy Forum (district-level policy making)
Climate Field School for Farmers (community-level)
Timor-Leste
National Working Group on Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation
Vietnam
Seasonal Climate Forum
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh 10

11. Forums for climate information providers and Users
National:
Seasonal climate forum (national meteorological and hydrological service (NMHS), intermediate users - e.g. agriculture and water resources ministries)
Inter- (user) agency committees (NMHS, agriculture and water resources ministries, water regulatory board, dam operators, water concessionaires, hydropower agency)
Sub-national: Provincial working group (provincial meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, universities, local government units, NGOs)
Local:
Local climate forum (local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture and irrigation departments, local government unit, local NGOs, farmers’ groups)
Field schools (provincial and local meteorological and hydrological station, agriculture extension, farmers)

12. Monsoon Forum objectives
Ensure that forecast products, including their uncertainties and limitations, are understood by and communicated to users on a regular basis
Provide a platform for inter-agency coordination of policies and programs for dealing with potential impacts of climate-related hazards on seasonal basis
Encourage climate forecast applications for mitigating risks in various climate-sensitive sectors;
Provide a platform for long-term process of understanding risks posed by/opportunities brought about by past, current, and future climate

13. Institutional mechanism: Indonesia example
Provision of climate outlook
BMKG (Met. Geophys. Agency)
Translation of climate outlook into impact outlook
Indramayu Agriculture Office
Conversion of impact outlook into crop management strategies
Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of farmers response
IPB
(Bogor Agril. Univ.)
Directorate of Plant Protection

14. Climate Risk Management Project: Current variability and future change
Sparse networks and discontinuity in climate observations
Data rescue efforts required
Capacities for data analysis
Validation and careful interpretation of regional model results
User interfaces with sector agencies

15. Addressing Key Gaps Societal Risks GAPS Forecast products1
Forecast products
Operational Forecast Institutions
GAPS 2
Addressed through CFAB type technology
Research output
Flexible mechanisms and enabling mechanisms for customized solutions
Building Institutional Partnerships & Capacities to evolve solutions
Research Institutions,
Universities

16. Success will depend on
Willingness of users to participate and constantly engage the meteorological agency
Understanding of the user context on the part of the national hydro-meteorological agency
Communication plan between forecast users and producers - regularity is essential
Mechanism for receiving and utilizing climate information within user agencies
Mechanism for giving feedback to meteorological agency, processing, and acting upon feedback

17. …thank you 17

18. Sample – typical example from farming sector
Critical climate risks are as follows:
Wet season cropping (November/December‐March/April): Flooding in January/February is a major problem. The probability of flooding during this period is more than 50%.
Farmers at the tail‐end of the irrigation system receive water only in December, while planting has to start in November. Otherwise, the paddy will not be tall enough to survive flooding in February.
Dry season cropping (April/May‐August/September): Droughts in June to July is the major problem during this season. About 4,000 ha, or 60% of the total rice paddy area is vulnerable to drought.
Tools built around down-scaled seasonal predictions are very useful

19. Forecast Applications – Timor-Leste
Program focused on Maubara sub‐district in Liquica District, which is located on the north coast.
Climate Field Schools conducted

20. Sri Lanka – National Monsoon Forum
2nd National Forum on 28th November 2009
Convener: Department of Meteorology (DOM)
Partner Agencies: Irrigation Department / National Building Research Organisation (NBRO)
User Agencies: Government Agencies / Academic Institutions / Science Founation / Sri Lankan Red Cross / NGOs / Media (19)

21. Key Recommendations
Information on parameters for better decision making
Need based forecast Ocean state forecast, lightning activity (User agencies)
Improved coordination between key early warning agencies
Joint projects development (pollution monitoring)
Study to pilot the signal system (Color coding) for Tsunami and Cyclone

23. Climate Risk manifestations – what are we worried about?
i. Alteration of the mean state of climate
ii. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme climate events
iii. Combination of i. and ii.
iv. Climate surprises (i.e. emergence of historically unexpected and sudden climate change-induced patterns)

24. Climate Forecast Applications in Bangladesh (CFAB)
Evolved long lead forecast- up to 10 days forecast models in collaboration with Georgia Tech University, USA
Tested the models in 2004
Operational on experimental basis since 2006
ADPC Project
Support - USAID
Partners - CARE, Bangladesh, Univ. of Colarado, Georgia Tech – Earth Atmospheric Sciences; BMD, Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)

25. Brahmaputra Discharge Forecasts 2007 1-10 day flood forecasts using ECMWF precipitation forecasts

26. Institutional and community responses on 2007 flood forecast
Discussion of options with local communities, CBOs, local working group members, networks
Incorporated into customized local model
Flood forecast issued for two boundary locations
Communication to Disaster Emergency Group
Communication to project partners
Information to relief agencies about the extent of flooding
Communication to stakeholders and local DMC members
24 Jul
25 Jul
26 Jul
30 Jul
2 Aug
21 Jul
22 Jul
23 Jul
Local institutions prepared response and relief plans
Community in low lands reserved their food, drinking water, fodder requirements
Local Disaster Management Committee and Volunteers prepared for rescue
Relief distribution started in affected locations
Aid agencies arranged logistics and begin dialogue with district administration
Flood water exceeded danger level on 28th July
Low lying areas are flooded on 29th July

27. Willingness of users to participate and constantly engage the meteorological agency
Understanding of the user context on the part of the national hydro-meteorological agency
Communication plan between forecast users and producers - regularity is essential
Mechanism for receiving and utilizing climate information within user agencies
Mechanism for giving feedback to meteorological agency, processing, and acting upon feedback