1. Somalia’s Only Solution: Proactive Strategy to Replace Reactive Tactics
Kleanthis Kyriakidis

2. Overview Background: From Barre to Anarchy Piracy Root Causes
Indigenous problems
International Community’s Responsibility
Current Scene-Setting
Major players
Semi-Autonomous Areas
Towards a Viable Solution
Cost
Turkish Example
Proposals
Clannism – Islam
Federalism – Institutions

3. Background: From Barre to Anarchy
Western Anti-Piracy Policy is not SAFE
S = Suitable
A = Acceptable
F = Feasible
E = Enduring
Treating Symptoms, not Root Causes
Judicial problems
Operational problems
Tactical problems
Vice Admiral William Gortney “Piracy is a problem that starts ashore and requires international solution ashore”

4. Background: From Barre to Anarchy
Socialist experiment turned to dictatorship
Exploitation of tribal character of the country despite homogeneity
Ruthless persecution of “independent” clans
“Divide and Conquer” policy
Collapse when ran out of Allies abroad and acquiescent clans in Somalia
Mohamed Siad Barre
22 years reign: October 1969 –January 1990

6. Background: From Barre to Anarchy
Warlords – Civil War
UN Response to humanitarian disaster
UNOSOM I
UNITAF
UNOSOM II
Main incidents
Pakistani soldiers
“Black Hawk Down”
In Retrospect: Successful Intervention

7. Piracy Root Causes Indigenous problems
1.7 million IDPs – 800,000 refugees
Starvation – drought
Inter/Intra clan conflict
Economy of war

8. PERIL: Pirates – Terrorists = heroes!
Piracy Root Causes
International Community’s Responsibility
Livestock ban (Gulf countries)
Somali fisheries’ exploitation – Attacks on fishermen
Use of Somali coats as toxic dumpsters
Restrictions/ ban on hawala companies
Ethiopian invasion Support
PERIL: Pirates – Terrorists = heroes!

9. Current Scene-Setting
Major players
TFG = “paper” government, according to ICG “inept, increasingly corrupt, and hobbled by weak leadership”
Former ICU = Successful in curtailing the warlords and pirates
Al-Shabaab = terrorists, extremists, linked to Al Qaeda
AMISOM, Ethiopian, Kenyan army

10. Current Scene-Setting
Semi-Autonomous Areas
Somaliland
1991 Self-proclaimed independence
Beel system
Puntland
Relatively stable – “former” pirate base
Disputed areas with Somaliland
South – Central Somalia
AMISOM – ASWJ vs. Al-Shabaab

11. Current Scene-Setting

12. Towards a Viable Solution
More than 12 futile Peace Conferences
Cost
UN Humanitarian Aid + Institution building (less than 0.5 billion $)
Annual Cost of piracy for 2011, almost 7 billion $
Accumulated Cost all these years ( billion $, some estimations over 200 billion $)
Average Somali income $

14. Towards a Viable Solution
Turkish Example
August 2011 PM Erdogan first non-African leader to visit Mogadishu in more than 20 years
Offer 115 million $, pledge to build 6 hospitals - turkish companies infrastructure, including airport
Turkish Airlines first airliner to begin bi-weekly flights from Istanbul
Scholarships to young Somalis

15. Proposals Take advantage of Clannism
Elders = stabilizing force, providing conflict mediation and customary law
Key factor: Cross- clan and clan – neutral approach, focusing on inter-clan contact and cooperation

16. Proposals Take advantage of Islam ICU proved efficient
ICU curtailed “anti-Islamic” piracy
Religion transcends clans
Appease moderate political Islam so as not to face radical extremist Islam (Al-Shabaab)
By approaching moderates, we can initiate talks with radicals

17. Proposals Federalism (Federal State or Confederation of States)
Puntland – Somaliland de facto semi-autonomous
Decentralized system acceptable/ suitable (central government always seen as predator)
Instead of big projects, small, local, feasible ones
Development projects especially for the coastal communities

18. Proposals Institutions Constitution
Demilitarization of society (very utopian at the time being)
Integration of all belligerents (even former Al-Shabaab or pirates) in the police – armed forces
If we operationally succeed and not solve the Somali problem, piracy will disappear, but terrorism, organized crime, illegal immigration will take its place...

19. No matter what we do, piracy will exist as long as chaos reigns
No matter what we do, piracy will exist as long as chaos reigns. We cannot expect to solve a problem by using reactive tactics; we need to replace them as soon as possible with a holistic proactive strategy for Somalia, addressing the situation in land.