1. ‘2020 Vision: Enabling the Digital Economy’
Shared visions of possible industry futures
The Drivers, The Concept of IJI,
and the accompanying Technical Challenges

2. I t Just Is Open Vision: Enabling the Digital Economy’
Shared visions of possible industry futures
The Internet for all anywhere:
I t Just Is 2

3. ‘2020 Vision’
Mobile VCE’s Visions Group

4. Mobile VCE’s Visions Group
Industry Futures’ Day
‘2020 Vision’ paper
Primary drivers of evolution
The direction IJI
Themes & challenges
VCE member consultation
Core 5 programme themes:
User Interactions
Flexible Networks
Green Radio

5. Some of the Drivers…

6. Global Population
2007: >6.5bn with 50% in cities, rather than rural areas (for the first time)
2020: 7.6bn with primary growth in India, China, Asia
2050: 9bn of which 80% are expected to live in cities

7. Demographics An Aging Society China UK <15 yrs old 15-24 yrs old
2007
27%
15%
44%
14%
China UK

8. Climate Change & Energy
Issues
Overall CO2 reduction is vital yet
Population growth of 2.5bn by 2050 !
China’s CO2 emissions overtakes US this year
China’s economic growth continues
Mobile basestations consume -40 MW per network in the UK – more in China and growing
Yet handset power consumption is minimal
Mobile: a CO2 reduction engine
Lifestyle
Transportation
Services
Economic efficiency

9. Markets Tales of Tails… A Long Tail of … Consumer Market Distributions
‘The Long Tail’ – Chris Anderson
Thesis 1: The value of the long tail markets exceed that of the central ‘mass’ market, and
Thesis 2: That ‘recommendations’ change the distribution shape and increases the area (value) under the long tail
Next stage – ‘the mid-tail’, recognition of the significant middle
A Long Tail of …
Products – already here (eg books)
Content – already here (music, multichannel & UGC)
Services – the next stage
Ubiquitous, passive, contextual – tailored to my lifestyle, not yours
Personalised Connectable Devices

10. IJI – an Overarching Theme

11. Future Industry Growth
“Wireless:- all-pervasive, essential enabler for multi-service ubiquitous communications”
Two Realms
Mass Market - Personal Lifestyle
Industry - Industrial Transformation
Success Factors
Invisible Technology, Enabled Economy
Consumer Perspective
Industry Perspective
IJI – “It Just Is” A Vision of Invisible Technology & Ease of Use
Implications for all aspects of the enabling technology
© 2008 Mobile VCE

12. IJI – Invisible Technology
Consumer Perspective
Essential for Mass Market Success
‘Out of the Box’ vs ‘Plug & Pray’
Eliminate User configuration
it restricts the accessible market
negative viral marketing (‘don’t buy it !’)
Get it right and it can create completely new genres of services and of products
© 2008 Mobile VCE

13. IJI – Invisible Technology
Industry Perspective
IJI is needed to enable Mass-Customised Services
Mass customisation using existing approaches is simply uneconomic
Mass customisation over heterogeneous networks needs to be seamless, to deliver the necessary user experience
Mass customisation needs
to respect differing ownership & control of networks and
to respect differing (and changing) business models
In the future ‘everyone may provide a service’ the rise of the prosumer
© 2008 Mobile VCE

14. Specific Target Areas & Technical Challenges

15. Simple and transparent multimodal user interactions, enabling new high value services
Usability
e.g. iPhone
Woven into the fabric of life
Re-defining the user experience
Simplifying complexity
Towards Intelligence
Advanced interactivity
Intelligence UI
Novel UI Technologies
© 2008 Mobile VCE

16. Business-Model-Neutral Network
Efficient & effective, intelligent & autonomous, network architectures and management
Business-Model-Neutral Network
Autonomous management
Seamless
‘Invisible’
Adaptable
Unpredictable user needs
Evolvable architecture
Intelligent
Service agnostic
Tailored ‘user experience’
© 2008 Mobile VCE

17. Green Radio The Drive for Bandwidth Going Green
Faster, fatter = higher power (unless we change)
Bigger, better amplifiers
Power hungry base stations
Going Green
Efficient wireless
Backhaul challenge
Energy efficient multipliers
Spectrum awareness
Green = Reduced OPEX !
© 2008 Mobile VCE

18. I t Just Is Open Vision: Enabling the Digital Economy’
Shared visions of possible industry futures
The Internet for all anywhere:
I t Just Is 18

19. Thank you

21. Geographical Population Distribution
100% 56 13 5

22. Mobile VCE’s Visions Group
Organised the 2007 Industry Futures’ Day
Captured its key outcomes
Developed these into the ‘2020 Vision’ paper
Documented the primary drivers of evolution
Identified an overarching approach - IJI
Identified potential research themes & associated challenges
‘2020 Vision’ paper formed a basis for consultation amongst Mobile VCE’s Industry member companies
Well received, a good and comprehensive view
Three key themes taken forward as the Core 5 programme:
User Interactions
Flexible Networks
Green Radio 22

23. Economic Trends
“…the world economy is likely to continue growing impressively:  by 2020, it is projected to be about 80 percent larger than it was in 2000, and average per capita income will be roughly 50 percent higher”
Source: US National Intelligence Council
‘Mapping the Global Future’ Report,, Dec 2004
Economic growth, population growth = more communications