1. Oakdene Hollins Opportunities in Recycling “Critical Raw Materials”
Peter Willis
17th March 2011

2. Disclaimer
Oakdene Hollins Ltd believes the content of this presentation to be correct as at the date of writing. The opinions contained in this presentation, except where specifically attributed, are those of Oakdene Hollins Ltd. They are based upon the information that was available to us at the time of writing. We are always pleased to receive updated information and opposing opinions about any of the contents.
The listing or featuring of a particular product or company does not constitute an endorsement by Oakdene Hollins, and we cannot guarantee the performance of individual products or materials. This presentation must not be used to endorse, or suggest our endorsement of, a commercial product or service.
All statements in this presentation (other than statements of historical facts) that address future market developments, government actions and events, may be deemed "forward-looking statements". Although Oakdene Hollins believes the outcomes expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance: actual results or developments may differ materially. Factors that could cause such material differences include emergence of new technologies and applications, changes to regulations, and unforeseen general economic, market or business conditions.
We have prepared this presentation with all reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the contract with the client. Although we have made every reasonable effort to ensure the accuracy of information presented in this presentation, Oakdene Hollins cannot expressly guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the estimates, forecasts and conclusions herein. Factors such as prices and regulatory requirements are subject to change, and users of the presentation should check the current situation. In addition, care should be taken in using any of the cost information provided as it is based upon specific assumptions (such as scale, location, context, etc.). Clients should satisfy themselves beforehand as to the adequacy of the information in this presentation before making any decisions based on it.

3. Oakdene Hollins’ Work
Study into the feasibility of protecting and recovering critical raw materials through infrastructure development in the South East of England (European Pathway to Zero Waste, 2011)
Assessing rare metals as supply chain bottlenecks in priority energy technologies (European Commission Institute of Energy, 2011)
Lanthanides resources and alternatives (Department for Transport, 2010)
Materials security: Ensuring resource availability for the UK economy (Resource Efficiency KTN, 2008)

4. Agenda What are the EU “Critical Raw Materials”?
Best Opportunities for Investors:
Aerospace
RE Magnets
Flat Panel Displays
Batteries
Gap Analysis of Opportunities
Conclusions

5. Defining “Critical Raw Materials”
European Commission (2010) study “Critical Raw Materials for the EU”
41 metals and minerals assessed
Combination of 2 factors:
Economic Importance
Main applications
Substitutability
Supply Risks
Stability of producing countries
Diversity of supply
Recycling

6. 14 “Critical Raw Materials”
Production Volumes (tonnes)
Large Volumes
Small Volumes
Fluorspar – 5,100,000
Indium – 1,200
Graphite – 1,130,000
Tantalum – 1,160
Magnesium – 760,000
Platinum Group – 445
Antimony – 187,000
Beryllium – 140
Rare Earths – 124,000
Germanium – 140
Tungsten – 94,000
Gallium – 118
Niobium – 62,000
Cobalt – 62,000
Source: mostly USGS for 2009; includes recycling where available

7. Current Importance of China
China as leading producer of 9 materials:
Rare Earths (97%)
Antimony (91%)
Tungsten (81%)
Magnesium (77%)
Graphite (71%)
Germanium (71%)
Fluorspar (59%)
Indium (50%)
Gallium (32%)
Other Leading Producers:
Brazil: Niobium (92%)
US: Beryllium (86%)
Platinum Group: South Africa (61%)
Tantalum: Australia (48%)
Congo Kinshasa: Cobalt (40%)
Source: USGS for 2009

8. Demand for “Critical Raw Materials”

9. Forecasts for “Critical Raw Materials”
Antimony
Germanium
Niobium
Fluorspar
Gallium
Magnesium
Tungsten
Cobalt
Rare Earths
Graphite
Tantalum

10. Prices of “Critical Raw Materials”
Source: mostly Metal Pages

11. Dominant Applications
Seven raw materials have over half their consumption in a single application:
Antimony (Flame Retardants – 72%)
Fluorspar (Chemicals - 60%)
Gallium (Integrated Circuits – 66%)
Germanium (Optics – 55%)
Indium (Flat Panel Displays – 74%)
Magnesium (Casting Alloys – 50%)
Niobium (Steel Alloys – 83%)
Platinum Grp (Catalysts – 60%)
Tungsten (Cemented Carbides – 60%)
Source: European Commission (2010)

12. Screening Methodology
Selection Criteria:
Include all dominant applications
Analyse markets using multiple raw materials
Rank economic value of raw material contained
Examine carbon impacts of markets
Selected 12 markets for further analysis:
Supply chain maps
Existing practice infrastructure
Technical feasibility & economic viability
Stakeholder consultation

13. High Opportunities – Aerospace
Up to 12,000 aircraft to retire by 2020
Move away from ‘wild destruction’
Smart dismantling can recover 85% of weight
Reuse superalloys in engines (Co, Nb, Ta) & landing gear (Be)
Recycle (Al-Mg alloys)
Implementation by accreditation & standards
Source: Airbus

14. High Opportunities – RE Magnets
Hard disk drives (HDD) as current opportunity
Hitachi with process to cut HDD & remove RE magnets for recycling
Need to segregate, not shred with WEEE
Wind Turbines & (H)EVs as long term opportunity due to long lifetimes
Source: Hitachi

15. High Opportunities – Flat Panel Displays
80% of In used to make ITO (mostly for FPs)
Recycling of In process waste common
Easy to separate FPs from WEEE as easily recognisable
Pilot scale technologies being developed to remove ITO to recycling
Medium timeframe for FPs in waste stream
Solar PV for long term
Source: Valpak
Source: WRAP

16. High/Med Opportunities – Batteries
800 t of NiMH, 600 t of Li-ion in UK waste
Low collection rates for portable batteries: NiMH (2%) & Li-ion (1.5%)
Need for better collection & labelling
Co recovered but RE & Graphite lost in slag
Optimise recycling
(H)EV batteries as long term opportunity
Possible (cascaded) reuse
Source: Valpak

17. Other Opportunities Identified
Improve collection:
Beverage Cans (Magnesium)
Catalytic Convertors (Platinum Groups)
Medium Opportunities:
Cemented Carbide Tools (Cobalt, Tungsten)
Catalysts (Rare Earths)
Flame Retardants (Antimony)
Steel Production (Graphite, Fluorspar)

18. Gap Analysis on Recycling

19. Conclusions Recycling not enough: Recycling can contribute to supply:
High demand growth
Long product lifetimes
Problem of dispersive usage
Recycling can contribute to supply:
Improve collection
Advanced sorting techniques
Implement new technology
Design for disassembly & reuse
Some raw materials with little opportunity:
Dispersive applications
Consumed in process

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Peter Willis
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