1. Prediction Games
Players compete by making predictions about upcoming event/observation in the real world
Predictions are scored after event
At TAMU, we are exploring their design for data-intensive domains
Aim to improve data skills and mental models of domains
First, let’s talk about the best known type of prediction game: Fantasy sports
57.4 million players in U.S. & Canada in 2016
Players explore data to play the game

2. What are Fantasy Sports
Players of fantasy sports take on the role of coach
Draft actual sport players for team
Decide which players draft, trade, and start each week/game
Get points based on player statistics
History
1962: paper-based fantasy football game
1979: start of Rotisserie baseball
Characteristics:
Leagues among local friends and colleagues
Significant effort of collecting statistics and computing winners
Trophies and prizes for winners (and losers)

3. Fantasy Sport Move Online
A natural fit
Automatic collection and use of data
Easy access for players
Early effects
Often no knowledge of other players
Low consequences leads to low interest
Players abandon teams early in season
New interfaces aid sense of community
League statistics / power ratings
League polls / message boards
Integrating virtual and real sport news
News of injuries, anticipated changes to starting players, and weather forecasts
Alongside articles about fantasy teams

5. Games as Derivative Forms
Simple model
Real world acts as data source for game engine
Model maps data to game
Collection of Data from
Event
Model Mapping
Data to Game
Context
Real-World
Event
Virtual
Event

6. Examples of Model Examples of prediction games
Fantasy stock markets
Fantasy SCOTUS
Fantasy Congress
Streaming or querying data
Weather and traffic in racing or other simulation based on real-time conditions
Action selection in game based on database of selections recorded in similar conditions

7. Fantasy Sports Practices
Surveyed 160 self-reported fantasy sports players on Mechanical Turk
Data source types?
How many data features?

8. Data Analysis & General Activity
Players vary regarding tool use
Some use only tools in game web site
Some use spreadsheets or statistical software
Most players reported using a combination of in-game and out-of-game tools
Rationale of tool choice
Need range of features
Convenience
User Control
Usability
Number of interactions with game per week
Length of average interaction

9. Motivations Some expected factors
Sports engagement
Entertainment
Intellectual challenge
But open-ended answers focused on social value
“it is a way to connect with my father who loves sports and also plays”
“to take part in an office activity with coworkers and not look like someone who doesn’t want to participate in social activities in the workplace”

10. Fantasy Climate: An Evolving Design
From predicting weather to predicting change from historic norms

11. Designing Prediction Games
Exploring a Design Space
Effects of news and its visualization
Effects of alternative modes of communication
Alternative data visualizations

12. Access to Domain-Specific News
GeoNews
NewsBoard

13. Use and Effects of News Use during game shows effect on engagement
Quality of predictions was better for those with GeoNews
(1 = best, 7 = worst)

14. Alternative Modes of Communication

15. Use and Lessons of Communication
Many more messages in IM
But most content was in forum
# of players agreed that communication tool increased engagement

16. Prediction Games Summary
Fantasy games have 55 year history
50+ millions of players in US alone
18+ billion dollar industry
Connecting the real and digital
Using the real world as data for or part of game engine
Community, context, and consequence result in engagement
Potential for prediction games to encourage the development of data skills and domain understanding