1. Hilton Presentation Tuesday, March 7th 2017

2. Invariant Tactical Solutions

3. Invariant Tactical Investment Process
Identifying the key elements of the marketplace mosaic to guide our decision-making
Top-down Global Macro
- Macro assessment of global variables to identify fundamental long-term trends
- Involves analysis of Business Cycles, Asset Classes, Sectors and Industries
- Delivers thematic projections and broad context
Technical and Complex Systems
- Technical analysis provides insight into short-term market trends resulting from emotion-driven investors
- Complex systems analysis provides essential guidance in identifying meaningful indicators amidst market’s noise
Risk Management
Active hedging utilized to help guard against major cyclical draw-downs
Multi-asset diversification: commodities, currencies, equities, credits
Recognizes that indicators are probabilistic rather than predictive
Absolute Return Portfolio

4. Interest Rates

5. Federal Reserve

6. What Does This Mean for the U.S. Dollar?

7. 2. The dollar has tendency to fall, NOT rise, during rate hike cycles.
Two Points
1. Administration has been explicit: it wants to reduce our trade deficit with other countries.
2. The dollar has tendency to fall, NOT rise, during rate hike cycles.

8. Example: Mexican Peso
From January 2015 through January, the Mexican peso is down > 40%.
PPP and other measures give fundamental estimates as much as 25%+ higher for MXN.

9. Rob Arnott (RA): Implications for Asset Allocation

10. Stylized Facts & Asset Allocation Implications: 3-5 Years (from summer ‘16)
Historic divergence between domestic U.S. equities and international equities
Extreme divergence between value and growth
“Inflation protection” dramatically underpriced
Local currency EM bonds shunned
Trillions in international government bonds have negative yields
These divergences represent significant opportunity both for asset allocators willing to take tactical risk over the intermediate-long term, as well as those willing to allocate to out-of-favor factors and strategies.
We all know that in an ideal world, it makes sense to allocate to out-of-favor strategies before the tide turns. This is often much harder to do in practice.
Now is the time to move.

11. Balanced Growth

12. Capital Preservation

13. Dislaimer
This presentation contains general information. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
Additional information including investment management fees and expenses is provided on Invariant’s Form ADV Part II.
This information does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice or recommendations with respect to any securities listed.