1. Tectonic Plate Shifts in MENA: The return of China, Iran, and
the United States
GTR, February 2017
Dubai
Florence Eid-Oakden, Ph.D
Tel:
With Charlene Rahall

2. Outline Sino-MENA Beyond oil, tourism switches into higher gear
Enter the New Silk Road
Sino-Iran trade value down, tonnage up
MENA-India
GCC dominates trade ties, 8-fold increase in 10 years
The Trump Presidency
Between hope & apprehension

3. MENA & China: Centre stage within “OBOR”
China One Belt One Road Map1
1 Arabia Monitor; Xinhua.

4. Sino-Arab Trade: Up 8-fold since 2003
Sino-Arab Bilateral Trade (USD, B)1
2016e
1 Arabia Monitor; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; China General Administration of Customs.

5. Sino-Saudi: Joined at the hip
Sino-Saudi Bilateral Trade (USD, B)1
2016e
1 Arabia Monitor; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; China General Administration of Customs.

6. Trade with Hong Kong: MENA leads the way
Hong Kong Trade with MENA ex-Iran, Iran & Turkey (USD, B)1
1 Arabia Monitor; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics.

7. UAE leads MENA trade with HK
Share in Hong Kong’s Exports to MENA, by Country1
1 Arabia Monitor; China Central Administration of Customs.

8. It’s not all about oil
Dubai Tourist Arrivals, by Nationality (Thousands & % Increase 2016f/2005)1
1 Arabia Monitor; Dubai Statistics Centre.

9. Chinese high-tech gaining foothold in MENA
High-Tech Export Opportunity (2016)1
1 Arabia Monitor; UNCTAD.
Arrows indicate the ration of global MENA exports compared to MENA imports from China in 2015.

10. Outline Sino-MENA Beyond oil, tourism switches into higher gear
Enter the New Silk Road
Sino-Iran trade value down, tonnage up

11. Sino-Iran: Through thick and thin
Sino-Iran Bilateral Trade (USD,B)1
1 Arabia Monitor; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; China General Administration of Customs.

12. Silk Road Express: Transport links added
The Yiwu-Tehran Train Route1
1 Arabia Monitor.

13. Iran: In time, a game changer; not just for oil markets
Oil Production, Consumption & Exports (M, Bpd)1
1 Arabia Monitor; OPEC; Iran Ministry of Petroleum Forecast.

14. Iranian Oil Exports to China: Resilient to sanctions
Iran Oil Exports to Europe, China, Asia-Pacific & NA (K, Bpd)1
Saudi Oil Exports to Europe, China Asia-Pacific & NA (K, Bpd)1
1 Arabia Monitor; OPEC; EIA.
* Asia-Pacific ex-China.

15. The race for China market share will tighten
Iran Oil Exports to Europe, China, Asia-Pacific & NA (% of Total Iran Oil Exports)1
Saudi Oil Exports to Europe, China Asia-Pacific & NA (% of Total Saudi Oil Exports)1
1 Arabia Monitor; OPEC; EIA.
* Asia-Pacific ex-China.

16. China’s Energy Quest: In it for the long haul
China Oil Production vs. Consumption Forecast (M, Bpd)1
1 Arabia Monitor; EIA.

17. Iran-Hong Kong Trade: Room for growth
Iran-HK Bilateral Trade (USD, M)1
1 Arabia Monitor; Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department.

18. Sino-Iran: Tourism shifts relations into higher gear
Tourist Arrivals to Iran, by Nationality1
1 Arabia Monitor; UNWTO

19. Outline Sino-MENA Beyond oil, tourism switches into higher gear
Enter the New Silk Road
Sino-Iran trade value down, tonnage up
MENA-India
GCC dominates trade ties, 8-fold increase in 10 years

20. GCC dominates MENA-India trade ties
MENA-India Bilateral Trade1
2016e
1 Arabia Monitor; The Institute for the Study of War

21. MENA: India’s indispensable energy partner
India Oil Imports, by Source (% of India Total Imports)1
1 Arabia Monitor; Ministry of Commerce, India.
* Latest available data.

22. The thirst for MENA oil will grow
India Oil Demand (M, Bpd)1
1 Arabia Monitor; The Institute for the Study of War

23. GCC-India: Pockets of opportunity beyond the barrels
Non-Hydrocarbon Opportunities, 2015 (USD, B)1
1 Arabia Monitor; UNCTAD. Arrows indicate the ratio of global GCC exports compared to GCC exports to India in 2015, highlighting potential opportunities for scaling up.

24. Outline Sino-MENA Beyond oil, tourism switches into higher gear
Enter the New Silk Road
Sino-Iran trade value down, tonnage up
MENA-India
GCC dominates trade ties, 8-fold increase in 10 years
The Trump Presidency
Between hope & apprehension

25. MENA-US Trade: A track record of success
US-MENA Bilateral Trade (USD, B)1
1 Arabia Monitor; The United States Census Bureau; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics.

26. US Aid: A necessity Aid to MENA (USD, B)1 1 Arabia Monitor; USAID.
* Latest available data.

27. Syria Safe Zones: A complicated task
Map of Syria1
1 The Institute for the Study of War.

28. Disclaimer
Arabia Monitor is an independent research firm specialised in economic and market analysis, and strategy advisory on the Middle East and North African region, which it views as the new emerging market. Arabia Monitor’s in-depth, locally informed analysis by Arab, Persian and Chinese speakers has placed it consistently ahead of the curve in identifying new trends within and around the region, and understanding its geopolitics. Arabia Advisors specialises in strategy for family offices, firms and government related organisations that are looking to streamline, re-balance or diversify their asset portfolios. It is based in the UAE as an off-shore company and services a regional and international client base with interest in the Arab countries. Arabia Monitor Aston House | Cornwall Avenue| London N3 1LF Tel © Arabia Monitor 2017 This is a publication of Arabia Monitor Limited (AM Ltd), and is protected by international copyright laws and is for the subscriber's use only. This publication may not be distributed or reproduced in any form without written permission. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell any security or fund to or by anyone in any jurisdictions, nor should it be regarded as a contractual document. Under no circumstances should the information provided on this publication be considered as investment advice, or as a sufficient basis on which to make investment decisions. The information contained herein has been gathered by AM Ltd from sources deemed reliable as of the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy or completeness is given. AM Ltd is not responsible for and provides no guarantee with respect to any of the information provided herein or through the use of any hypertext link.