1. After the Brexit vote: where next for environmental policy and politics?
Niccolo Carranti, Flickr
Nicolo Carranti
Andy Jordan and Viviane Gravey, Tyndall Centre, ‘Not4EExperts’ presentation, 27 July 2016

2. Overview Why was a referendum held? A timeline
Informing the referendum process: expert evidence on the impacts of EU membership / Brexit scenarios
Brexit – exploring future scenarios
The Brexit process – Article 50, Lisbon Treaty
Some final thoughts

3. Run up to the referendum
Cameron’s Bloomberg Speech, January 2013
Conservatives win general Election, May 2015
Cameron's letter to Tusk, start of official negotiations, November 2015
Deal agreed in European Council, ‘New Settlement’, February 2016
Referendum campaign starts, 15 April 2016
Referendum vote, 23 June 2016

4. The Referendum Environmental movement sided with Remain
Cited a range of expert reports
But environment low on referendum agenda

5. EU impacts on policy Change in policy style (precautionary principle)
UK not passive policy taker (climate change, wildlife)
UK able to prevent EU action in key areas (fracking, soil)
UK & EU working together in international environmental policy arenas
Source:

6. EU impacts on governance
Greater public participation in decision making; improved access to justice; and enhanced provision of environmental information.
Centralised negotiation combined with devolved implementation.
Supremacy of EU law.
Greenpeace UK

7. EU impacts on env. quality
EU has been generally positive for UK environment
Key examples: water quality, chemicals, waste & wildlife.
Offers long-term certainty for key infrastructure investments
Common Agricultural Policy
Common Fisheries Policy
V. Gravey

8. UK impacts on EU
The UK (government + civil society) has had strong influence on EU environmental policies
Greening the CAP, making CFP more sustainable
Leading action against Climate Change since 2008
Championing impact assessments & cutting regulatory burdens
V. Gravey

9. Preparing for Brexit
Shock in the environmental movement – aligned with the losing side
No contingency planning in HMG (except in the Treasury)
Brexit unit created immediately after the referendum (no budget!)
Department of Brexit created by Theresa May
“Brexit means Brexit”….

10. https://next.ft.com/content/01638f68-53ef-11e6-9664-e0bdc13c3bef

11. Brexit scenarios

12. ‘Soft Brexit’ - Norwegian Option
Environmental acquis would continue to apply
Except bathing water, habitats and birds, CAP and CFP, effort sharing, energy efficiency etc.
UK a policy ‘taker’ (+ lots of wrangling about the fine detail)
Weaker implementation and enforcement; no ‘direct effect’
Complex interaction with UK devolution

13. ‘Hard’ Brexit - free trade with the EU
Product standards required for trading with EU will remain
All other policies will be ‘nationalised’
‘Grandfathering’ in the short term (?); thereafter revised upward or downward
Very complex interaction with UK devolution (greater divergence through to complete break up of the UK)
Picture Source:

14. And… Remain Broadly speaking = status quo
Some scope for further efforts to roll back policy subject to Regulatory Fitness checks
Level of uncertainty is relatively low
Source:
Source:

17. House of Lords EU Committee
“no firm prediction” on how long Brexit will take (page 14)
Nationalisation of policies and laws will take “years to complete” (page 19)
Credibility of the UK in other EU fora will be “severely undermined” (page 17)

18. Impact of Brexit on EU policies
Weakened Green Growth coalition (vs Visegrad Group)
Reduced UK impacts on future CAP & CFP – despite budget contribution under Norwegian option.
Weakened Better Regulation coalition
Diminished role for UK civil society in the EU?

19. Final thoughts
A ‘Norwegian option’ currently the most likely – but is still significantly different to the status quo
‘Free trade’ option – very different; real risk of the bare minimum or ‘zombie’ UK environment policies?
Governance and institutions will matter as much as law and policy
Very real risk of a ‘disorderly exit’ in
UK environment policy is more uncertain now than at any time in the past 30 years

20. the core environment department currently has just 1,705 full-time equivalent staff – compared with 6,019 in 2005 (see table).

21. References
Burns et al. (2016) The EU Referendum and the UK Environment, An Expert Review
IEEP (2016) The Potential Policy and Environmental Consequences for the UK of a Departure from the European Union
Environment Audit Committee (2016) EU and UK environmental Policy, Third Report of Session
House of Lords, EU Committee – Energy and Environment Sub-committee, Potential implications of Brexit for environment policy, evidence session,