1. Patrick Buckley Dept. Envr Studies: Geography
Arab Political Demography Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is Oil Destroying the Arab world?
Patrick Buckley
Dept. Envr Studies: Geography

3. Introduction
Start combining demographics with migration, religion, linguistics, culture, economics, and potential global security issues

4. Some Questions
Is there an Arab World? Is this term based on a Formal, Functional, or Vernacular Region?
Does it relate to the Muslim World?

5. As a Linguistic Region

6. Arab World Linguistically Defined
Note how this is the heart of Islam, but not all or even most of Islam.
Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?

7. Result
Yes, seems fairly unified – it shares a common characteristic (formal region)

8. As a Historical Region

9. Arab World Historically Defined
The Arab empire that extended into Europe until 1491
Critical thinking: Would this be a formal, functional, or vernacular region?

10. Result
Perhaps, over about 1,400 years a number of empires have unified this region, but not all were controlled by Arabs.
Each of these empires would also be a formal region

11. As a Religous Region

12. With few exceptions Islam is a result of Arab Expansion/Trade

13. Result
Depends, Islam certainly dominates but it has branches and there are also some minority religions including branches of Christianity.
Still a formal region, but note the fuzzy borders as Islam as a % varies.

14. Religious % in Arab League

15. As a Political Region

16. Today The Arab World Politically Defined – the Arab League

17. The Arab League - The League of Arab States
Arab League, informal name of the League of Arab States, a voluntary association of independent countries whose peoples are mainly Arabic speaking. Its stated purposes are to strengthen ties among the member states, coordinate their policies, and promote their common interests.
Algeria
Bahrain
Comoros
Djibouti
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Mauritania Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Tunisia
U.A.E
Yemen
FACTS
OVERVIEW
Founded: 1945
Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt
Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia

18. How does this compare to the US?
Note this crude map contains only part of the Arab League, plus two non-Arab League state.
But it should get you thinking!!!
Turkey not Arab
Iran not Arab

19. More Direct Comparison
USA
Population: 314 million (US Census Bureau estimate, 2012)
Capital: Washington D.C.
Area: 3.8 million sq miles
Major language: English
Major religion: Christianity
Life expectancy: 75 years (men), 80 years (women) (UN)
Arab League
Founded: 1945
Population: 340 million (approx. 2007)
Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt
Area: 5.25 million square miles Key players: Egypt, Saudi Arabia
Members: 22 members including Palestine
Major language: Arabic
Life Expectancy: Varies generally approaches 70 years for men

20. Conclusion of Comparison
Today the Arab League population is bigger than the US
25 years from now its could be 50% greater than the US
Question How unified is this region? How well does it exist as a Formal rather than merely Vernacular Region.

21. Result
On paper there is a single group, but it is of limited use, much like the Organization of American States for North and South America

22. As a Unified Region

23. How unified is this region?
Variations on the Western Fringe:
Note that Turks, Kurds, and Persians are not Arabs

24. Note Shi’a Locations and Proportions
Inside there are variations.
Winckler (2005) notes that most if not all Arab nations have missing religious and ethnic data to hide/ignore problematic data inside their countries
Click here for examples:

25. Examples of Hidden Information
Country
What it has to hide
Lebanon
Religious differences not measured since 1932
Syria
Religious differences not measured since 1960
Jordon
Ethnic differences not measured since 1948
S. Arabia
Total population counts questionable, no religious data
Egypt
Undercounts Coptic Christians
Bahrain
Sunni Royal Family undercounts Shi'a majority
Qatar
With an estimate of 73% Foreigners, such data not measured

26. Unemployment No Arab state seems to accurately report unemployment
For example S. Arabia has claimed about 10% when reality could be as high as 20 to 30%.(recent Wall Street Journal put it even higher)
See

27. How does this relate to Oil/Gas?
Again do we have an Arab World or a couple of “worlds”? Oil and Non-oil?
In general many Arab countries with the largest populations have the least oil.

28. As an Economic Region

29. Two oil centers in Arab Region
Oil Reserves (Gb)
Country Gb
OPEC Nations
Saudi Arabia
261.8
Iraq
112.5
United Arab Emirates
97.8
Kuwait
96.5
Iran
89.7
Venezuela
77.8
Libya
29.5
Nigeria 24
Qatar
15.2
Algeria
9.2
Indonesia 5
Non-OPEC Nations
Canada
180
Russia 60
United States
22.4
Mexico
12.6
Norway
10.2
Oman
5.5
United Kingdom
4.7
Egypt
3.7
Gb = Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration.
Two oil centers in Arab Region

30. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): the oil & gas rich
Saudi Arabia
Oman
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
Kuwait
Qatar
The Gulf Cooperation Council, created in response to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, established the Gulf Standards Organization in November 1982 and the Gulf Investment Corporation in 1984.

31. GCC Y Oil Reserves (Gb) Country Gb OPEC Nations Saudi Arabia 261.8
Country Gb
GCC
OPEC Nations
Saudi Arabia
261.8 Y
United Arab Emirates
97.8
Kuwait
96.5
Libya
29.5
Qatar
15.2
Algeria
9.2
Non-OPEC Nations
Oman
5.5
Egypt
3.7

33. If Iraq were to join the GCC then the vast majority of world oil reserves would be controlled by this group.

34. A result
Wealth and jobs have become highly concentrated in the region around the Gulf resulting in large scale migration into the Gulf area.
GCC states have favored pro-natalist (pro-birth) policies even as Non-Oil states have started moving towards anti-natalist policies, why?

35. Population in 2000
Nationals million
Non-nationals …. 10 million

36. Note how many 30-35 year old Saudi’s there are and how many non-nationals

37. As a Demographic Region

38. 2 1 3
4 patterns emerge: (1) low growth regions, (2)slowing regions, (3) oil rich regions, and (4) “least developed” regions (not on chart).

39. Result
Some argue that the Arab world is splitting into these 4 different parts with following results

40. Most recent 2011 2011 Estimates Lebanon 1.78 1.04% Egypt 2.69 1.70%
Country
TFR
NRI
Lebanon
1.78
1.04%
Egypt
2.69
1.70%
Saudi Arabia
2.74
1.90%
Yemen
5.09
2.30%
Somalia
6.32
2.90%

41. Additional Results Slow growth areas will join developed nations
Slowing areas will face possible instability and hope to supply Europe and the GCC with labor

42. Possible Results
3. The GCC hopes to “grow” enough labor to oust outsiders, but as population momentum grows, energy resources will decline – too many for too little?
4. The ‘backward’ not developing areas will continue to fuel regional and world instability

43. Somalia???

44. Final Conclusions
There are a number of factors suggesting a unified Arab World, but…
Differences in resources and resulting economies has resulted in different demographic patters and policy – and thus possible futures
Oil wealth seems to be causing more differentiation rather than unity between Arab states

45. Study Questions
Is there an Arab World? How many different ways did we look at this and what is the evidence for or against?
In your opinion is the pro-natal policies of the Gulf states a good thing or a bad thing?
If the Arab World was unified, could it rival the US? Explain.