1. Anwaar Abdullah Alsuleimani u106915
Political, Economic and Social Transformation in the Middle Eastern and North African Countries
Anwaar Abdullah Alsuleimani
u106915

2. Outline Introduction Historical Background
Internal Dynamics of the Region and Democratization
Can the People’s Movements in the MENA be defined as Revolution ?
After “Arab Spring”
Is Turkey an Example?
Expectation

3. Introduction
Fall of the regimes(Egypt+Tunisia),uprising brought changes in MENA
Identity politics(after the collapse of Ottomans)+Economic troubles =motivates for developments.
Poverty, rapid population, police state practice, human abuses /constituted regional dynamics of the change.
Radical movements /dangerous dimentions(liberalization+democratization)

4. Historical Background
Main Problems:
Depending on the west. ( passive resistance from the people/repressive policies),increase the gap between people and government(ex, Egypt participation rate in election in 2005(25%),2010,=(35%)
Identity. (Boundaries issue, mismatch between interests and identity)
Is it impossible to build a nation based on Arab or Islam identities !/ UAR( ).
Identity problem repressive policies legitimacy! instability in regional, international relations.)religious, secular, tribalist)

5. Historical Background\USSR
Main reasons of collapse:
Lost the arm race
Social explosion (level of welfare)
Globalization lose the control interaction between people collapse USSR+communist regimes in Eastern Europe/democratic.
MENA remains with no changes/ social bursts!
Rapid change /dangerous for Israel/continue to support repressive regimes/Transformation delayed.

6. 2000s
After the events of 9\11
Democracy (inevitable necessity) to avoid radicalism.
GMEI(2004/Collin Powell)+MEPI(Participatory Governance, Economic Reform, Educational Advancement).
G.W. Bush

7. Reasons for rising democracy claims
1-Disconnection between regimes and the people which cause radical movements.
-(Afghanistan) s threating the global energy security.
3-Survival of Israel. “accepted” democracy.
4-New markets and investment area.(before it captured by China and India)./ agreements!
2-Radical elements threating security (western presence in the region (anger)/democracy as a solution!).
5-China+Russia can reduce western sphere of influence.( control Ch,Ru,In/Muslim majority)

8. Rising of GPs (China, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Iran)/ restrict effectiveness of the west.
Damaging western interests by establishing relations with dictatorships in MENA./Syria Now!
Democratic regimes must be found before GPs interfere.
Is Democracy the solution! /failed situation:
Afghanistan (2001).
Iraq (2003). / What kind of Democracy ?
Most important (institutionalization of democracy+ preventing terrorism).

9. Internal Dynamics of the Region and Democratization
Egypt witnessed serious opposition movements.
-Nasser era )7 attempts to kill the president, first one,1954)
-Anwar Sadat.(Camp David agreement, 1978,Assocination 1981)/followed by Jamaa Islamiyya+demonstration( Muslim brothers, Wafd, union of democrats )

10. Hosni Mobarak:
2000/universities (Cairo.Mansourah,Alexandria)>al Aqsa Intifada+20 March change Movement
2004/Kifaya Movement (No renewal, No heritor)/Jamal Mobarak presidency.
2005/dependence of members of judiciary
2006 /labor strikes
2007/opposition group from different sections .
2008/Water revolution, farmer demonstration/ removal of fertilizer subsidies.
2010 election to replace upper house/Wafd, Karamah, Democratic Front,etc

11. Libya/ opponents were arrested in 1992 (over 500 people)
Tunisia/ Rashid Ghannouchi,opposition leader were in exile(UK).
Algeria, Yemen, Syria(opposition lead by Islamic movements).
Gulf States!
Rate
Country
Score 78
Kuwait 28
112
United Arab Emirates 45
114
Qatar 46
119
Oman 55
158
Saudi Arabia
83,25
173
Bahrain
125

12. Palestine-Israel issue /Deeping of the divergence
Palestine-Israel issue /Deeping of the divergence.( Gaza siege, Operation Cast lead)
(sentiments and feelings of the people)
Passivity against government reaction towards US policies(limiting troops in Sinai, embargo against Iraq, silence against 2003 occupation)
( lead to more disconnection)

13. Police State
MENA regimes preferred Police state, because they failed to solve legitimacy problem.
Features of Police State:
Torture
Uncanny deaths
Increase the number of policeman.
Unquestionable government
Repress freedom.

14. Broken monopoly, politician events(bribe) become more visible/ technology+ Globalization ( reduce the control of police state)
Regime will not allow for such developments.
Population+ oppression + economic weakness=terrorist attack/trade liberalization.
Few Developments > most shares belong to the government.
Bad condition =more movements.(socio economic condition matters)

15. Anger was directed to US/ support those regimes
Anger was directed to US/ support those regimes. (public opinion support AlQaida)
Obama’s addresses( Ankara+Cairo)/ democratization.( Trump!/attacks in Syria)
Obstacle/ political and social structure
Role of Internet, cellular phone, satellite
Muhammed Buazizi.
Arab Spring raised (passed over the shame of 67). /culture of defeat

16. Can the People’s Movements in the MENA be defined as Revolution ?
Revolution/ sudden, radical, permanent change (Bolshevik revolution)
Feature of revolution
Occur because of the interplay between eco,pol,social factors.
Existence of ideologies.( quest for welfare, freedom, equality)
Revolutions are consequence of these ideologies.
Violence
Islamist,nationalist,tribalist/ not enough, but democracy, respect, quality./system does not matter anymore

17. Causes of Transformation:
Arab nationalism become weak( 1967+oil revenue)/failed to bring developments.
Education programs
Information technologies(comparison to the west, blame regimes )
Globalization/lose control(transparent just election+democratic government)/to hold legitimacy
Not revolution!/ instantaneous parts of a long range revolution
Revolution!/ collapse of USSR+
qualified change in the regional international relation

18. Is it a coup d’etat!
Foreign policy matters/US focused on public diplomacy to shape it policies rather than imposing them. People contribute to US policies.
Despite all the anger against the west, still people of MENA demanding help from the west.

19. After “Arab Spring” Tunisia
+/(New constitution 2014, dropping references to Islamic law+ freedom to worship)
/bad economic situation (loan, unemployment 35%,)
Egypt
supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) continues to run the country.
2012 election52% ,2014( first two days 2.27 %, bribes, day off, fined up pounds/26.6%),unemployment 12.4%

20. Is Turkey an Example?
Turkish democracy is partly successful./pioneer to MENA.
After AKP raised to power/ increase level of interaction between MENA and Turkey./highest level
Good example for Egypt/ Sunni majority.
Clergy can't seize power in Sunni majority countries, but possible in Shia majority..
EX: Hezbollah in Lebanon
Seize of power by a Sunni clergy/ exceptional and temporary case.

21. Expectation
Democratic demands will not stop (bread, freedom.respect,justice)
Democratization will increase.(globalization +technology)
Regimes will try to contain the situation (balancing between freedom and security)/Gulf States.
Role of Egypt
Global powers will take demands of people into consideration./Israel.(review relation)
hostility against the west (colonlism+support for Israel)

22. References:
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