1. Office of Extraordinary Innovation
On Autopilot…But Where To?
Colin F. Peppard
Office of Extraordinary Innovation
Los Angeles County Metro
Presented by:
Assemblymember Adrin Nazarian
July 14th, 2016

2. Modern Auto Travel is a Miracle…
The automobile is one of the most transformational technologies ever created, enabling greater mobility than at any time in the history of humankind.

3. …and a Curse.
Your car is also arguably one of the most underutilized, polluting, time-consuming, and dangerous machines on earth…

4. Can Both Be True? 23.8 billion hours of time operating a vehicle in CA
Current Vehicle Mobility Model is Ripe for Disruption
Underutilized
<4% auto utilization in a 24 hour day
Polluting
45% of global oil demand; >37% CA GHG emissions
Time Consuming
23.8 billion hours of time operating a vehicle in CA
Dangerous
~33,000 annual traffic deaths; ~3,000 in CA

5. AV Technologies Increase the Value Proposition of Autos
More useful - More hours of total uptime…
…requiring fewer hours of human time.
Cleaner – Efficient operations, improved EV integration
Safer – Humans are horrible drivers

6. Potential Benefits: More Utilization

7. Potential Benefits: Reduced Pollution

8. Potential Benefits: Time Savings

9. Potential Benefits: Safety

10. How AVs Deliver Benefits Depends on the Model

11. Potential Pathways to Adoption
Closed Campuses
Freight Vehicles
Mobility Providers (Uber/Lyft)
Limited Transit Use (First/Last Mile; BRT; Shuttle)
Public Dealership Sales
Full Transit Use
Widespread Personal Use

12. Potential Timeframes

13. A Key Factor: Public Perception

14. Enthusiasm, Uncertainty

15. Mixed Reaction to Shared/Sourced AVs

16. Uncertainty Over Integration

17. Miles Are Increasing; But So Are SHARED Miles

18. More Households, More Cars: How Will They Be Used?

19. The Fate of EVs & AVs May Be Interdependent

20. So What Will it Mean? Two Possible Futures…
Level of Vehicle and Ride Sharing 0%
100%
Driverless Utopia
Driverless Nightmare

21. Driverless Utopia Scenario
A suite of cost-effective, reliable transportation options includes AV cars, but also AV micro-transit, bus, BRT, etc.
Most cars are hired, most rides are shared
Private cars are shared when not in use
AVs connect with efficient high-capacity rapid transit
Less road space, fewer GHGs, less parking needed

22. Driverless Nightmare Scenario
AVs are dominant transportation option
Most cars are owned, few rides are shared
Vehicles to run personal errands, circulate, or park when not in use
Travel distance increase due convenience
Increased traffic and road capacity needs

23. Public Policy & Agency Action Will Set the Course
“The state of autonomous vehicle technology seems likely to advance with or without legislative and agency actions… However, the manner in which autonomous vehicle technologies progress… depends heavily on these efforts. Intelligent planning, meaningful vision, and regulatory action and reform are all required.” - Eno Center for Transportation Preparing for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers, and Policy Recommendations

24. Key Policy Questions
How will deployment of AV technology be regulated?
Will regulatory precautions delay AV deployment?
Will design be impacted?
Will certain users?

25. Key Policy Questions
Will shared AVs be regulated differently than private vehicles?
Will regulation of shared vehicles as public utility delay shared uses and accelerate private ownership models?

26. Key Policy Questions New insurance and enforcement mechanisms?
Will citizens accept liability for a vehicle they can’t control? Will manufacturers?

27. Key Policy Questions Public Transit: Complement or competition?
Can transit providers and shared-use AV mobility providers work together?
Can transit operations and regulations be aligned with AV fleet operations and business models?

28. Thank You!
Questions?