1. Results: Circulated August 2017
Central Bank of Ireland/Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland: Survey of Property Professionals 2017Q2
Results: Circulated August 2017
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2. PLEASE NOTE:
ENCLOSED ARE THE RESULTS/FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY OF PROPERTY PROFESSIONALS 2017Q2. THE PURPOSE OF THIS PRESENTATION IS TO PROVIDE INFORMATION TO THOSE WHO PARTICPATED IN THE survey, CENTRAL BANK OF IRELAND STAFF & THE SCSI.
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3. Chart 1: Regional distribution of respondents
2017Q2 SURVEY IN CONTEXT
Chart 1: Regional distribution of respondents
Survey conducted in July 2017
In this wave, 50 full or partial responses were received vs. 120 in 2017Q1 and 30 in 2016Q2
Participants from all regions, over 1 out of 3 operate in Dublin only
Mostly the views of chartered surveyors, auctioneers and estate agents, but some economists and analysts working in both the public and private sector are also involved
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart based on 50 full or partial responses
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4. 2017Q2 SURVEY SUMMARY Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
A majority of participants expect national house prices to increase across all relevant time horizons (+1 Year and +3 Year). The percentage anticipating national house price growth in the medium-to-long term is broadly in line with recent survey results at 96 and 93 per cent, respectively. All Dublin-based respondents anticipate property prices in the region to increase across the +1 Quarter, +1 Year, +3 Years time periods.
The median degree of expected national house price appreciation for the +1 and +3 Year time horizons (at 8 and 15 per cent, respectively) are currently in line with expectations, at the time of announcement of the macroprudential mortgage market measures. Expectations for the national and Dublin areas for +3 Years are unchanged from the previous quarter, while, price expectations for both areas have experienced a slight increase in the +1 Year horizon (up from 7 and 8 per cent to 8 and 10 per cent, respectively).
The regional response rate is lower relative to previous surveys with the expectations for the majority of areas based on a small sample. In every region, house prices are expected to be higher in one year’s time, with further albeit more moderate increases expected over the remaining +3 years horizon.
The primary factors said to be influencing expectations surrounding house price developments nationally relate to the supply of housing units (2nd hand & new) which represent a combined 61 per cent, then followed by access to bank credit. In Dublin, the availability of bank credit was not deemed to be a primary factor for the first time in the survey. Housing supply in the form of 2nd hand stock (41 per cent) was cited as the joint-most important issue influencing price expectations alongside the construction of new residential units. The performance of the economy was considered by respondents to have more influence on anticipated price changes in Dublin than at the national level.
The share of respondents who believe that, in terms of sales activity, they were busier in 2017Q2 than in the quarter before is below that of previous quarters, for sales agreed and completed. The majority perceive activity levels to be ‘approximately the same’ as the previous quarter. Levels for Dublin remain relatively the same as the previous quarter, while there has been an increase in sales completed for non-Dublin regions.
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5. SURVEY 2017Q2: EXPECTED DIRECTION OF PRICE CHANGE
Chart 2: Expected movement of residential property prices (National): 2014Q4 to 2017Q2
Chart 3: Expected movement of residential property prices (Dublin): 2014Q4 to 2017Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 11 surveys (2014Q4 to 2017Q2). Number of observations vary from survey to survey.
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart provides details of the results from past 11 surveys (2014Q4 to 2017Q2). Number of observations vary from survey to survey.
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6. SURVEY 2017Q2: EXPECTED EXTENT OF PRICE CHANGE
Chart 4: Median expected change in National residential property prices over a 1 Quarter, 1 Year, and 3 Year time horizon.
Chart 5: Median expected change in Dublin residential property prices over a 1 Quarter, 1 Year, and 3 Year time horizon.
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 12 surveys (2014Q3 to 2017Q2). Number of observations vary from survey to survey.
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 12 surveys (2014Q3 to 2017Q2). Number of observations vary from survey to survey.
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7. SURVEY 2017Q2: REGIONAL PRICE EXPECTATIONS (+1 Year)
Chart 6: Expected movement of residential property prices
1 Year time horizon (Regional): 2017Q2
Chart 7: Median expected change in Regional residential property prices over 1 Year time horizon: 2017Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets
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8. SURVEY 2017Q2: REGIONAL PRICE EXPECTATIONS (+3 Years)
Chart 8: Expected movement of residential property prices
3 Year time horizon (Regional): 2017Q2
Chart 9: Median expected change in Regional residential property prices over 3 Year time horizon: 2017Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets
Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED

9. SURVEY 2017Q2 : FACTORS UNDERLYING HOUSE PRICE EXPECTATIONS
Chart 10: Top 3 factors influencing expectations of house price developments: 2017Q2
Chart 11: Number 1 ranked factor influencing expectations of house price developments, (Regional): 2017Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart based on 137 observations from 50 respondents
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets. “Other” includes; value, rental market developments, FX movements and interest rates.
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10. SURVEY 2017Q2: FACTORS UNDERLYING HOUSE PRICE EXPECTATIONS
Chart 12: Primary factor influencing expectations of house price developments (National and Dublin): 2015Q Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 7 surveys (2015Q4 to 2017Q2). Number of observations vary from survey to survey.
Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED

11. SURVEY 2017Q2: ACTIVITY LEVEL vs. PREVIOUS QUARTER
Chart 13: Q-on-Q comparison of residential market sales activity: All Regions
Chart 14: Q-on-Q comparison of residential market sales activity: Dublin
Chart 15: Q-on-Q comparison of residential market sales activity: Non-Dublin
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart provides details of the results from the past 11 surveys (2014Q4 to 2017Q2). Number of observations vary from survey to survey.
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12. SURVEY 2017Q2: SHARE OF OWNER OCCUPIERS AND INVESTORS
Chart 16: Average share of properties for sale or recently sold in the current quarter by ownership category (National & Dublin): 2017Q2
Chart 17: Average share of properties appraised and to be for sale in the forthcoming quarter by ownership category (National and Dublin): 2017Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets
Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED

13. SURVEY 2017Q2: BUY-TO-LET ACTIVITY
Chart 18: Effect of the changes to increase mortgage interest relief in the recent Budget on BTL Investment: 2017Q1-Q2
Chart 19: In Q1 2017, please indicate if there was an increase or decrease in the number of BTL properties coming on the market: 2017Q1-Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations varies over time
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Number of observations for each region included in brackets
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Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED

14. SURVEY 2017Q2: FACTORS INFLUENCING BTL PROPERTIES FOR SALE
Chart 20: Primary factor influencing the number of BTL properties coming onto the market (National and Dublin): 2017Q1-Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: ‘Low Rental Demand’ was an option for this question, however, it was omitted from the chart due to zero respondents selecting it as a contributing factor
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Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED

15. ANNEX
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16. SURVEY 2017Q2: MEDIUM-TERM HOUSE PRICE EXPECTATIONS – INDIVIDUAL OBSERVATIONS.
Chart A1: Extent of expected 1 Year change in residential property prices: National and Dublin
Chart A1: Extent of expected 3 Year change in residential property prices: National and Dublin
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart based on 29 and 18 responses to the question on national and Dublin expectations respectively
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart based on 29 and 17 responses to the question on national and Dublin expectations respectively
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17. SURVEY 2017Q2: PROPERTY SALES PER RESPONDENT
Chart A3: Number of residential units sold in the 2017Q2
Chart A4: Number of residential units sold in the 2017Q2 by region
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: Chart based on responses from 41 respondents who gave details of their levels of sales.
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: “Small” classified as sales of 1 to 15 units, “Medium” as sales of 16 to 30 and “Large” sales of greater than 30, in 2017Q1.
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18. SURVEY 2017Q2: PROPERTY SALES PER RESPONDENT
Chart A5: Average share of properties sold in previous quarter by ownership category based on number of residential units sold in the quarter: 2017Q2
Source: Central Bank of Ireland & SCSI Survey of Property Professionals
Note: “Small” classified as sales of 1 to 15 units, “Medium” as sales of 16 to 30 and “Large” sales of greater than 30, in 2017Q2.
Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED
Central Bank of Ireland - RESTRICTED