1. Predicting the Future vs. Making the Future
Comparing Science Fiction to Science Funding
Peter David

2. Science fiction…
is a form of crowdsourcing to predict the future

3. Science fiction…
is a form of crowdsourcing to predict the future

4. Science fiction…
is a guide to lead us to a bright future

5. US Army TRADOC Mad Scientist
Science fiction…
is a guide to lead us to a bright future
Science Fiction Advisory Council
Center for Science and the Imagination
US Army TRADOC Mad Scientist

6. Science fiction…
acts as a warning to guide us away from a dark future

7. acts as a warning to guide us away from a dark future
Science fiction…
acts as a warning to guide us away from a dark future
Nirwath: // Wikimedia Commons / CC-BY-SA-3.0
Voldemort: /  Wikimedia Commons / CC-BY-SA-3.0

8. ?
Science Fiction
Science Funding

9. ? Science Fiction Science Funding What is in here? What is in here?
What do science fiction
authors and researchers agree will exist in the future?
What is in here?
What is overlooked by use of science fiction for prediction? What ideas are researchers missing?

10. ? Science Fiction Science Funding What is in here? What is in here?
What do science fiction
authors and researchers agree will exist in the future?
What is in here?
What is overlooked by use of science fiction for prediction? What ideas are researchers missing?

11. Data! Attribute Science Fiction Funding Source
TRADOC Mad Scientist science fiction short story contest
DoD SBIR Solicitations from 1983 to 2017
Number of Documents
104 short stories
~25k R&D solicitations
Document Content
Science Fiction short stories about warfare in 2030 to 2050
6.1 – 6.3 research solicitations
(~1B per year in R&D funding)

12. What are all these documents about?

13. What are all these documents about?
I don’t want to have to read all of them

14. What are all these documents about?
I don’t want to have to read all of them
Need coarser and finer levels of detail

15. What are all these documents about?
I don’t want to have to read all of them
Need coarser and finer levels of detail
Need a principled way of comparing topics from both corpora

16. Statistical Topic Modeling
Develop innovative strategies for an ultracompact turbine burner that can enable a near-constant engine cycle by combusting in between the high-and low-pressure turbines.
Develop and demonstrate lightweight, high effectiveness, low cost recuperators for small turbine engines to power small manned and unmanned aerial systems for increased flight envelope and maneuverability.
Develop concepts for advanced propulsion system for nuclear submarines with increased efficiency over existing systems. A synergistic combination or power plant, transmission and propulsor are desired to allow increased speed and/or power with less weight and volume.  
D. M. Blei, A. Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan, “Latent dirichlet allocation,” the Journal of machine Learning research, vol. 3, pp. 993–1022, 2003.

17. Statistical Topic Modeling
Develop innovative strategies for an ultracompact turbine burner that can enable a near-constant engine cycle by combusting in between the high-and low-pressure turbines.
Develop and demonstrate lightweight, high effectiveness, low cost recuperators for small turbine engines to power small manned and unmanned aerial systems for increased flight envelope and maneuverability.
Develop concepts for advanced propulsion system for nuclear submarines with increased efficiency over existing systems. A synergistic combination or power plant, transmission and propulsor are desired to allow increased speed and/or power with less weight and volume.  
D. M. Blei, A. Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan, “Latent dirichlet allocation,” the Journal of machine Learning research, vol. 3, pp. 993–1022, 2003.

18. Statistical Topic Modeling
topics
Develop innovative strategies for an ultracompact turbine burner that can enable a near-constant engine cycle by combusting in between the high-and low-pressure turbines.
turbine engine combusting power propulsion …
Develop and demonstrate lightweight, high effectiveness, low cost recuperators for small turbine engines to power small manned and unmanned aerial systems for increased flight envelope and maneuverability.
Aerial flight unmanned maneuverability …
Develop concepts for advanced propulsion system for nuclear submarines with increased efficiency over existing systems. A synergistic combination or power plant, transmission and propulsor are desired to allow increased speed and/or power with less weight and volume.  
Efficiency advanced power weight volume advanced …
D. M. Blei, A. Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan, “Latent dirichlet allocation,” the Journal of machine Learning research, vol. 3, pp. 993–1022, 2003.

19. Statistical Topic Modeling
topics
documents
Develop innovative strategies for an ultracompact turbine burner that can enable a near-constant engine cycle by combusting in between the high-and low-pressure turbines.
turbine engine combusting power propulsion …
Develop and demonstrate lightweight, high effectiveness, low cost recuperators for small turbine engines to power small manned and unmanned aerial systems for increased flight envelope and maneuverability.
Aerial flight unmanned maneuverability …
Develop concepts for advanced propulsion system for nuclear submarines with increased efficiency over existing systems. A synergistic combination or power plant, transmission and propulsor are desired to allow increased speed and/or power with less weight and volume.  
Efficiency advanced power weight volume advanced …
D. M. Blei, A. Y. Ng, and M. I. Jordan, “Latent dirichlet allocation,” the Journal of machine Learning research, vol. 3, pp. 993–1022, 2003.

20. Example of Statistical Topic Modeling
1083 Wikipedia pages

21. List of disasters in the United States
10 topics
city
retrieved
center
park
south
downtown
city's
university
street
flight
air
aircraft
crash
crew
airlines
accident
space
hurricane
storm
tornado
damage
national
florida
weather
tropical
war
sea
united
world
states
islands
canada
american
bridge
train
gas
used
disaster
coal
dam
water
safety
new
news
shooting
times
archived
police
school
original
york
jersey
accessed
island
river
county
lake
state
san
california
los
angeles
santa
valley
francisco
census
age
virginia
population

22. List of disasters in the United States
city
retrieved
center
park
south
downtown
city's
university
street
flight
air
aircraft
crash
crew
airlines
accident
space
hurricane
storm
tornado
damage
national
florida
weather
tropical
war
sea
united
world
states
islands
canada
american
bridge
train
gas
used
disaster
coal
dam
water
safety
new
news
shooting
times
archived
police
school
original
york
jersey
accessed
island
river
county
lake
state
san
california
los
angeles
santa
valley
francisco
census
age
virginia
population
List of disasters in the United States
10 topics …

23. List of disasters in the United States
10 topics
city
retrieved
center
park
south
downtown
city's
university
street
flight
air
aircraft
crash
crew
airlines
accident
space
hurricane
storm
tornado
damage
national
florida
weather
tropical
war
sea
united
world
states
islands
canada
american
bridge
train
gas
used
disaster
coal
dam
water
safety
new
news
shooting
times
archived
police
school
original
york
jersey
accessed
island
river
county
lake
state
san
california
los
angeles
santa
valley
francisco
census
age
virginia
population

24. List of disasters in the United States
10 topics
city
retrieved
center
park
south
downtown
city's
university
street
flight
air
aircraft
crash
crew
airlines
accident
space
hurricane
storm
tornado
damage
national
florida
weather
tropical
war
sea
united
world
states
islands
canada
american
bridge
train
gas
used
disaster
coal
dam
water
safety
new
news
shooting
times
archived
police
school
original
york
jersey
accessed
island
river
county
lake
state
san
california
los
angeles
santa
valley
francisco
census
age
virginia
population

25. List of disasters in the United States
10 topics
city
retrieved
center
park
south
downtown
city's
university
street
flight
air
aircraft
crash
crew
airlines
accident
space
hurricane
storm
tornado
damage
national
florida
weather
tropical
war
sea
united
world
states
islands
canada
american
bridge
train
gas
used
disaster
coal
dam
water
safety
new
news
shooting
times
archived
police
school
original
york
jersey
accessed
island
river
county
lake
state
san
california
los
angeles
santa
valley
francisco
census
age
virginia
population

26. List of disasters in the United States
100 topics (hand-selected topics shown)
hurricane
storm
national
tropical
winds
center
united
atlantic
coast
shooting
school
shot
police
killed
shootings
mass
massacre
harris
bridge
collapse
construction
collapsed
bridges
injured
river
span
coal
mining
disaster
miners
plymouth
accident
explosion
west
flight
crash
airlines
aircraft
air
crew
plane
aviation
earthquake
earthquakes
san
fault
california
geological
damage
seismic
magnitude
cleveland
waco
branch
davidians
fbi
atf
texas
davidian
koresh
train
railroad
trains
line
rail
amtrak
passenger
wreck
snow
blizzard
cold
winter
weather
famine
ice
food

27. What are the Science Fiction stories about?

28. What are the Science Fiction stories about?
10 topics
like
saw
didn’t
old
felt
took
suit
began
thought
military
new
technology
systems
use
information
years
large
power
away
came
moved
left
reached
pulled
looked
turned
way
team
space
time
knew
mission
combat
teams
great
command
forces
force
air
drones
high
attack
control
going
did
man
look
asked
building
set
small
started
video
open
fighting
got
know
don’t
good
right
think
sure
enemy
squad
platoon
soldiers
able
armored
data
vehicle
human
people
world
war
make
using

29. What are the Science Fiction stories about?
10 topics
like
saw
didn’t
old
felt
took
suit
began
thought
military
new
technology
systems
use
information
years
large
power
away
came
moved
left
reached
pulled
looked
turned
way
team
space
time
knew
mission
combat
teams
great
command
forces
force
air
drones
high
attack
control
going
did
man
look
asked
building
set
small
started
video
open
fighting
got
know
don’t
good
right
think
sure
enemy
squad
platoon
soldiers
able
armored
data
vehicle
human
people
world
war
make
using

30. What are the Science Fiction stories about?
10 topics
like
saw
didn’t
old
felt
took
suit
began
thought
military
new
technology
systems
use
information
years
large
power
away
came
moved
left
reached
pulled
looked
turned
way
team
space
time
knew
mission
combat
teams
great
command
forces
force
air
drones
high
attack
control
going
did
man
look
asked
building
set
small
started
video
open
fighting
got
know
don’t
good
right
think
sure
enemy
squad
platoon
soldiers
able
armored
data
vehicle
human
people
world
war
make
using

31. What are the Science Fiction stories about?
medical
surgical
patient
beams
knows
vehicle
attached
treatment
surgery
swarm
brain
swarms
pilots
ship
energy
dream
news
squads
technology
intelligence
artificial
war
allowed
greater
data
conflict
decision
space
earth
assault
flight
launch
mission
force
large
station
drones
drone
targeting
wave
layer
laser
controlled
buildings
suddenly
suit
team
power
armor
body
arm
suits
skin
city
left
embassy
cell
scanned
crowds
social
rail
phone
enemy
platoon
squad
soldiers
combat
tactical
battle
soldier
new
vehicles
tank
infantry
tanks
network
advance
round
rifle
troops
began
holographic
overhead
troop
head
beginning
pilot
plane
manufacturing
refugee
event
environmental
analysts
minutes
megacities
solar
forces
attack
command
advanced
initial
shuttle
helmet
hostages
insurgents
wanted
satellites
commercial
footage
What are the Science Fiction stories about?
100 topics (hand-selected topics shown)
medical
surgical
patient
beams
knows
vehicle
attached
treatment
surgery
swarm
brain
swarms
pilots
ship
energy
dream
news
squads
technology
intelligence
artificial
war
allowed
greater
data
conflict
decision
space
earth
assault
flight
launch
mission
force
large
station
drones
drone
targeting
wave
layer
laser
controlled
buildings
suddenly
suit
team
power
armor
body
arm
suits
skin
city
left
embassy
cell
scanned
crowds
social
rail
phone
enemy
platoon
squad
soldiers
combat
tactical
battle
soldier
new
vehicles
tank
infantry
tanks
network
advance
round
rifle
troops
began
holographic
overhead
troop
head
beginning
pilot
plane
manufacturing
refugee
event
environmental
analysts
minutes
megacities
solar
forces
attack
command
advanced
initial
shuttle
helmet
hostages
insurgents
wanted
satellites
commercial
footage

32. technology intelligence artificial war allowed greater data conflict
decision
technology
intelligence
artificial
war
allowed
greater
data
conflict
decision
The Question of War
At first, artificial intelligence worked hand-in-hand with a person. At the time the argument was over the extent of having a ‘human in the loop’. But this argument was a false one. It existed only because artificial intelligence had not yet outgrown its human dependence. The debate did not last long and soon sentient machines entered the arsenals of first the most powerful and then the less. People still decided on war but could not wage it without a machine at their side and it was not clear how much longer the human was needed.

33. The Contest Winners (selected topics)
information human rail spectrum day air container
squad probably news right they’re got patrol
men trees building compound feed dirt hear
can’t asked wasn’t bit machines couldn’t women
looked took came turned saw eyes felt
began bots web pod industrial lab wave
minutes reached sound light used feet open
tank garage smoke final love hatch driver
like going good got think right need
time did way like long know left 20 36 62 12 39 73 33 53 26
Among The Apple Trees
Boudicca
Caretaker
Cultural Support Team
Defense Of Gippers Twist
Moose Musstard
Patrolling in the Infosphere
Something Old, Something New
The Weapons of World War Four
M. Hall, “Patrolling the Infosphere.” Army University Press, 2017.
N. W. Toronto, “The Defense of Gipper’s Twist.” Small Wars Journal, 07-May-2017.
K. Kilcker, “Moose Musstard.” Small Wars Journal, 08-May-2017.
D. Carter, “Something Old, Something New.” Small Wars Journal, 09-May-2017.
O. Hammerquist, “The Weapons of World War Four.” Small Wars Journal, 11-May-2017.
E. Skarstedt, “Among the Apple Trees.” Small Wars Journal, 03-May-2017.
H. Wilson, “Boudicca.” Small Wars Journal, 04-May-2017.
M. Baretta, “Cultural Support Team.” Small Wars Journal, 06-May-2017.
M. Martineck, “Caretaker.” Small Wars Journal, 05-May-2017.

34. What are the SBIR Solicitations About?
100 topics (hand-selected topics shown)
coating
coatings
corrosion
surface
phase
surfaces
application
materials
aircraft
network
networks
wireless
distributed
mobile
communications
communication
information
protocols
monitoring
health
systems
maintenance
failure
fault
develop
diagnostic
management
data
fusion
sensor
awareness
multiple
situational
sensors
algorithms
material
properties
processing
applications
new
high
mechanical
polymer
optical
fiber
optic
photonic
optics
fibers
infrared
detector
array
plane
focal
arrays
detectors
imaging
space
satellite
solar
spacecraft
satellites
launch
payload
orbit
commercial
composite
composites
structures
matrix
structural
ceramic
strength
human
performance
cognitive
assessment
team
measures
task
research
unmanned
vehicles
air
small
vehicle
uav
platform
aerial
ground
explosive
energetic
explosives
energy
propellant
propellants
solid
gps
navigation
positioning
inertial
global
position
accuracy
brain
injury
device
physiological
traumatic
military
injuries
propulsion
rocket
combustion
motor
liquid
engine
radiation
nuclear
effects
electromagnetic
weapons
hardening
electronics

35. AF00-022 TITLE: Gratings for High-Power Yb-doped Fiber Lasers
optical
fiber
optic
photonic
optics
phase
fibers
applications
high
optical
fiber
optic
photonic
optics
phase
fibers
applications
high
AF TITLE: Gratings for High-Power Yb-doped Fiber Lasers
OBJECTIVE: Develop gratings for use with high-power Yb-doped fiber laser systems.
DESCRIPTION: The Yb-doped dual-clad fiber laser is a leading candidate for use as a compact high-power continuous wave laser system. There are efforts to scale the power of individual fiber lasers to the limits of the dual-clad fiber. Arrays of fibers are envisioned to allow power scaling even further towards kilowatt class lasers. An enabling technology for power scaling of individual fibers and fiber arrays is the use of gratings; among others, the gratings may include Bragg gratings, holographic gratings, and conventional gratings. Bragg grating applications include single wavelength operation (for potential phasing of fiber arrays), enhancement of coupling waveguided pump light to the lasing core, mitigation of nonlinear optical effects, etc. Gratings may be applied in alternative methods for coupling laser diode pump light to the fiber laser.

36. How do we compare these two topic models?
Topic alignment
Sci-fi topic 23
SBIRs topic 57
commercial
launch
mission
orbit
payload
satellite
solar
space
spacecraft
assault
earth
force
launch
mission
orbit
space
spacecraft

37. How do we compare these two topic models?
Topic alignment
Sci-fi topic 23
SBIRs topic 57
commercial
launch
mission
orbit
payload
satellite
solar
space
spacecraft
assault
earth
force
launch
mission
orbit
space
spacecraft
𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐴 𝑖 𝐵 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐴 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐵 𝑖 2

38. How do we compare these two topic models?
Topic alignment
Sci-fi topic 23
SBIRs topic 57
commercial
launch
mission
orbit
payload
satellite
solar
space
spacecraft
assault
earth
force
launch
mission
orbit
space
spacecraft
𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐴 𝑖 𝐵 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐴 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐵 𝑖 2

39. How do we compare these two topic models?
Topic alignment
Sci-fi topic 23
SBIRs topic 57
commercial
launch
mission
orbit
payload
satellite
solar
space
spacecraft
assault
earth
force
launch
mission
orbit
space
spacecraft
𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐴 𝑖 𝐵 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐴 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐵 𝑖 2

40. How do we compare these two topic models?
Topic alignment
Sci-fi topic 23
SBIRs topic 57
commercial
launch
mission
orbit
payload
satellite
solar
space
spacecraft
assault
earth
force
launch
mission
orbit
space
spacecraft
𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐴 𝑖 𝐵 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐴 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐵 𝑖 2

41. Similar Topics in Science Fiction and SBIR Solicitations
Rank: 90
, 626, 21
Model 1 topic 626: gun barrel guns caliber bore erosion barrels wear tube tubes liners design cannon armament firing muzzle rifling propellant steel medium
Model 2 topic 21: gun message squad release intel flooded update truck swarm comms flies engagement weeks mechanized original essentially alley figures remnants lets
model 1 docs: af061.doc, af85.doc, af87.doc, army00.doc, army002.doc, army002.doc, army002.doc, army012.doc, army012.doc, army012.doc, army032.doc, army043.doc, army043.doc, army052.doc, army062.doc, army082.doc, army092.doc, army102.doc, army102.doc, army112.doc, army112.doc, army121.doc, army12A.doc, army152.docx, army161.docx, army161.docx, army85.doc, army85.doc, army86.doc, army86.doc, army86.doc, army89.doc, army901.doc, army901.doc, army902.doc, army902.doc, army912.doc, army912.doc, army912.doc, army912.doc, army912.doc, army953.doc, army972.doc, army972.doc, army992.doc, darpa84.doc, darpa912.doc, darpa912.doc, navy001.doc, navy001.doc, navy011.doc, navy011.doc, navy012.doc, navy031.doc, navy031.doc, navy091.doc, navy83.doc, navy88.doc, navy921.doc, navy931.doc, navy932.doc, navy961.doc, navy962.doc, navy981.doc, navy991.doc, navy991.doc, socom032.doc,
model 2 docs: Alone and Unafraid.docx,
Rank: 91
, 892, 33
Model 1 topic 892: tank tanks integral fuel use bladder compatible currently additionally used technical testing collapsible auxiliary based vent inside level sae bulk
Model 2 topic 33: tank garage smoke final love hatch driver tank’s eye bloody interior mention look sharp familiar officer forest gunshots router dust
model 1 docs: af021.doc, af021.doc, af051.doc, af131.doc, af86.doc, af89.doc, af901.doc, af921.doc, af961.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, army043.doc, army082.doc, army111.doc, army902.doc, army992.doc, navy032.doc, navy041.doc, navy101.doc, navy111.doc, navy112.doc, navy11A.doc, navy122.doc, navy12A.doc, navy141.doc, navy142.doc, navy151.doc, navy85.doc, navy86.doc, navy89.doc,
model 2 docs: Boudicca.docx,
Rank: 92
, 852, 29
Model 1 topic 852: space satellite spacecraft satellites orbit earth platforms missions mission orbital low responsive nasa ground dual military launch commercial orbits mass
Model 2 topic 29: space earth assault flight launch mission force large station cargo astronauts command low suit operation orbit helmet operational bring hostage
model 1 docs: af00.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af011.doc, af021.doc, af021.doc, af021.doc, af021.doc, af021.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af041.doc, af041.doc, af041.doc, af041.doc, af051.doc, af051.doc, af051.doc, af051.doc, af051.doc, af051.doc, af051.doc, af06.doc, af061.doc, af061.doc, af061.doc, af061.doc, af061.doc, af061.doc, af061.doc, af061.doc, af063.doc, af071.doc, af071.doc, af071.doc, af071.doc, af071.doc, af071.doc, af071.doc, af073.doc, af073.doc, af073.doc, af081.doc, af081.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af093.doc, af09B.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af103.doc, af10B.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af112.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af121.doc, af12B.doc, af131.doc, af131.doc, af131.doc, af131.doc, af131.doc, af13A.doc, af141.doc, af14A.doc, af151.doc, af151.doc, af151.doc, af151.doc, af151.doc, af153-dp2.doc, af162.docx, af162.docx, af162.docx, af162.docx, af163-dp2.docx, af171.docx, af171.docx, af17a.docx, af85.doc, af85.doc, af87.doc, af87.doc, af88.doc, af89.doc, af911.doc, af941.doc, af941.doc, af951.doc, af961.doc, af961.doc, af961.doc, af961.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, af99.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, army012.doc, army082.doc, army082.doc, army092.doc, army101.doc, army111.doc, army113.doc, army121.doc, army132.doc, army132.doc, army902.doc, army902.doc, army953.doc, darpa06.doc, darpa062.doc, darpa082.doc, darpa082.doc, darpa092.doc, darpa093.doc, darpa09B.doc, darpa122.doc, darpa131.doc, darpa131.doc, darpa161.docx, darpa163-dp2.docx, darpa163.docx, darpa171.docx, darpa901.doc, darpa901.doc, darpa901.doc, darpa902.doc, darpa902.doc, darpa902.doc, darpa921.doc, mda04.doc, mda041.doc, mda041.doc, mda05.doc, mda05.doc, mda053.doc, mda063.doc, mda063.doc, mda063.doc, mda07.doc, mda083.doc, mda08B.doc, mda093.doc, mda103.doc, mda10B.doc, navy021.doc, navy091.doc, navy093.doc, navy093.doc, navy101.doc, navy122.doc, navy152.docx, navy16b.docx, navy171.docx, navy942.doc, navy972.doc, osd031.doc, osd981.doc, sdio911.doc, sdio921.doc, ussocom171.docx,
model 2 docs: Operation High Jump.docx,
Rank: 93
, 653, 60
Model 1 topic 653: military commercial applications use dual application technology world civil sectors difficulty faced relying greater economy arena consistent objectives additionally chen
Model 2 topic 60: military provided human global forces world energy number population vehicles economic known use return leadership million future air led development
model 1 docs: army982.doc, navy981.doc,
model 2 docs: American Military Dispatches from docx, HCoV-EMC-GD docx, Reflection on Military Innovation docx, The Moldova Journal.docx, The Second Aperture War.docx,
Rank: 94
, 621, 19
Model 1 topic 621: technology technologies prototype applied applicable represents specifically military freeman use arising exercise sees difficulties pattern shapes affordable situ
Model 2 topic 19: technology intelligence artificial war allowed greater data conflict decision collapse islands changes forward infrastructure device clear barely fully effect warfighting
model 1 docs:
model 2 docs: Reflection on Military Innovation docx, The Question of War.docx,
Rank: 95
, 254, 47
Model 1 topic 254: combat systems future support fcs acquisition integrated objective peo brigade current team effectiveness requirement aegis army’s common challenge modernization capabilities
Model 2 topic 47: combat local unit nations days robots greatly improved oil suffered capture programmed assistance success exchange families combination best lighter journal
model 1 docs: army072.doc, army912.doc, navy141.doc, navy171.docx, navy951.doc, navy961.doc, navy991.doc,
model 2 docs: The Moldova Journal.docx,
Rank: 96
, 643, 61
Model 1 topic 643: building buildings used phase blocks use military indoor demonstrate outdoor feasibility facilities hvac block construction using typical room example rooms
Model 2 topic 61: building water street floor windows city stairs levels sensors window wall buildings times open level upper tube guards floors rescue
model 1 docs: army032.doc, army043.doc, army06.doc, army06.doc, army062.doc, army072.doc, army093.doc, army162.docx, army901.doc, army902.doc, army912.doc, army992.doc, cbd071.doc, darpa002.doc, darpa062.doc, darpa08A.doc, navy001.doc, navy001.doc,
model 2 docs: Army Special Ops docx,
Rank: 97
, 490, 79
Model 1 topic 490: human factors humans people ergonomics hsi evaluation interaction individuals create objective guidelines user strengths training activity role facilitate usability interface
Model 2 topic 79: human humans biological giant meters virtual robot came design nuclear army it’s hall sentient rival break inside short advantage dying
model 1 docs: af051.doc, af083.doc, af161.docx, af87.doc, af921.doc, af991.doc, army043.doc, army972.doc, darpa093.doc, darpa171.docx, dtra101.doc, navy012.doc, navy021.doc, navy031.doc, navy031.doc, navy043.doc, navy072.doc, navy092.doc, navy142.doc, navy161.docx, navy992.doc,
model 2 docs: Interview with a Sentient War Machine.docx, The Question of War.docx,
Rank: 98
, 557, 29
Model 1 topic 557: space platforms systems dual environment qualified nasa terrestrial validate future shuttle qualifiable satellites mission “the leverage anderson fraction outgassing cook
model 1 docs: af031.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af061.doc, af081.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af083.doc, af112.doc, af84.doc, af87.doc, af901.doc, af901.doc, af941.doc, af961.doc, af961.doc, af991.doc, darpa123.doc, navy11A.doc,
Rank: 99
, 122, 5
Model 1 topic 122: team performance teams individual develop assessment readiness members coordination salas methods effort measurement assess effectiveness distributed critical research factors military
Model 2 topic 5: team teams team’s inside led man vehicles convoy intended combat members terrain sense instructions individual member clearly villagers aspect modern
model 1 docs: af001.doc, af001.doc, af001.doc, af011.doc, af021.doc, af021.doc, af021.doc, af031.doc, af031.doc, af041.doc, af041.doc, af05.doc, af051.doc, af06.doc, af06.doc, af061.doc, af061.doc, af071.doc, af071.doc, af081.doc, af081.doc, af121.doc, af131.doc, af131.doc, af131.doc, af16A.docx, af89.doc, af941.doc, af961.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, af981.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, af991.doc, army002.doc, army032.doc, army032.doc, army032.doc, army043.doc, army062.doc, army081.doc, darpa062.doc, darpa093.doc, darpa143.doc, dha17b.docx, dhp132.doc, navy002.doc, navy012.doc, navy031.doc, navy032.doc, navy04.doc, navy041.doc, navy06.doc, navy062.doc, navy062.doc, navy07.doc, navy071.doc, navy081.doc, navy081.doc, navy082.doc, navy09A.doc, navy122.doc, navy971.doc, navy972.doc, navy972.doc, navy982.doc, osd032.doc, osd102.doc, osd102.doc, osd102.doc, osd102.doc, osd141.doc,
model 2 docs: Jerry Smith's War 2030.doc,
Corpus
Topics
SBIRs
space satellite solar spacecraft satellites launch payload orbit commercial phase
Sci-fi
space earth assault flight launch mission force large station cargo
data information database analysis collection software time digital storage available
data target feed running autonomous vision linked immediate security critical
medical care health military patient phase casualty combat civilian clinical
medical surgical patient beams knows vehicle attached treatment surgery reached
missile defense mda seeker missiles optical phase window ballistic windows
missiles missile defense launch radar ships railguns cruise radars railgun
data blue street sniper floor window adjacent hallway dots faces
vehicle vehicles ground military combat army phase mobility technology drive
vehicles unmanned vehicle augmented ground network brigade deployment unit days
unmanned vehicles air small vehicle uav platform aerial ground airborne
military social language behavior recognition human cultural biometric operations speech
military provided human global forces world energy number population vehicles
human performance cognitive assessment team measures task phase research decision
human humans biological giant meters virtual robot came design nuclear
data information database analysis collection software time digital storage
data visor box large color search hole soldier map earth
Better Match
GoodMatch

42. Advanced Micro-Mechanisms for Small Satellites
Similar Topics in Science Fiction and SBIR Solicitations
Science Fiction
SBIR Solicitation
space earth assault flight launch mission force large station cargo astronauts
space satellite solar spacecraft satellites launch payload orbit commercial
Operation High Jump
“So what do the CubeSats… do?” the lieutenant slipped in quickly.
“They perform collective and individual tasks for SOF team members based on each CubeSats payload, such as communications, life support, personal propulsion, and EXO-suit and helmet power. The CubeSat payload also provides the redundancy SOF loves so much and all of them can be replaced if expended, or if there is a malfunction.” Jacobs paused to ensure the Lieutenant was following his explanation.
“Each suit CubeSat rack can hold eight CubeSats, which can attach and de-attach, based on signals from the helmet. Certain CubeSats serve as batteries for the suit and helmet. If power runs low the helmet will automatically eject the dead CubeSat, and a new CubeSat battery from the constellation following the assault team will self-attach to the SOF assaulters suit.”
AF00-032
Advanced Micro-Mechanisms for Small Satellites
TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Space Platforms
OBJECTIVE: Demonstrate low cost, ultra-lightweight, miniaturized spacecraft mechanisms for deployment and precision pointing that can meet future DoD small spacecraft requirements.

43. Similar Topics in Science Fiction and SBIR Solicitations
medical surgical patient beams knows vehicle attached treatment surgery
medical care health military patient phase
casualty combat civilian clinical
Where Angles Fear
Tedd Roberts
HIPPOCRATES, patient record, MXM1066A "
A mechanical, synthetic voice spoke: "Martin X. Martin, First Sergeant, Two hundred sixty-fourth medical battalion, attached to training company, thirty second medical brigade..."
The doctor interrupted: " HIPPOCRATES, advance to surgical record, summarize, detail level one."
The synthetic voice resumed: "Patient Martin, Electrical Shock while at forty-first medical battalion; received undocumented Greene Mark I nanobots, record manually corrected at a later date. Hit by Enemy 'TOTUNG' Beam on convoy duty west of Las Cruces, major tissue disruption, perforation and inflammation;
A01-175
Ruggedized Medic
TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Biomedical
ACQUISITION PROGRAM: MRMC Acquisition Program
OBJECTIVE: Provide a prototype ruggedized medic's Personal Digital Assistant ( PDA) personal computer (PC) for user testing in Advanced Warfighter Exercises (AWE), Joint Technology Demonstrations (JTD), Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations (ACTD) or Army Concept Evaluation Programs (CEP) which are intended to evaluate emerging first responder medic telemedicine and medical informatics decision support systems, such as the medical record "dog-tag" like Personal Information Carrier (PIC), the Field Deployable [medical] Record (FDR), and the Special Operations Forces Medical Handbook (SOFMH).

44. Interview with a Sentient War Machine
Similar Topics in Science Fiction and SBIR Solicitations
Science Fiction
SBIR Solicitation
human humans biological giant meters virtual robot came design nuclear
human performance cognitive assessment team measures task phase research decision
Interview with a Sentient War Machine
“Is it? If you say so. But then why make an A.I. with only human abilities, when we already have so many human minds around?”
“Ah, that’s the trick. Psychologically I am fully human, but I can think many times faster than a biological human, and I can multitask. I’m like a team of 1000 identical people, all sharing the same memories and thus still a single person. I can also split parts of myself off into subminds, to animate the various drone weapons that you see around you. And yet, I am still human, and not intrinsically smarter than a biological human.”
AF00-080
Agent-Based Measurement System for Advanced Distributed Learning Technologies
TECHNOLOGY AREAS: Human Systems
OBJECTIVE: Conduct exploratory research to develop deployable methods for capturing cognitive, behavioral, and affective information related to performance in operational contexts.
DESCRIPTION: A requirement exists to develop automated, deployable methods for capturing, representing and synthesizing individual operator and workgroup interaction, knowledge and core competencies for use in rehearsal, training and performance support. This effort will conduct exploratory research to develop deployable methods for capturing cognitive, behavioral and affective information related to performance in operational contexts.

45. 10 Science Fiction topics least like any SBIR topic
don’t
know
it’s
can’t
that’s
people
we’re
they’re
you’re
began
bots
web
pod
industrial
lab
wave
sending
knowing
can't
asked
wasn't
bit
machines
couldn't
women
probably
let
troops
holographic
overhead
troop
head
beginning
pilot
plane
tank
garage
smoke
final
love
hatch
driver
tank’s
eye
drones
entry
roof
area
route
floor
they’d
hostiles
we’ll
armored
mines
rockets
aerial
personnel
rocket
spider
failed
ripped
didn’t
wasn’t
started
got
room
couldn’t
thought
wouldn’t
joined
hot
allow
ones
cannon
mechanical
barely
ballistic
wind
like
mass
hull
technological
old
remembered
assault
external
mind
tap
little
need
tapped
ask
pair
wrist
world
war
wish
come
nuclear
study
say
research
Science Fiction
10 Science Fiction topics least like any SBIR topic
don’t
know
it’s
can’t
that’s
people
we’re
they’re
you’re
began
bots
web
pod
industrial
lab
wave
sending
knowing
can't
asked
wasn't
bit
machines
couldn't
women
probably
let
troops
holographic
overhead
troop
head
beginning
pilot
plane
tank
garage
smoke
final
love
hatch
driver
tank’s
eye
drones
entry
roof
area
route
floor
they’d
hostiles
we’ll
armored
mines
rockets
aerial
personnel
rocket
spider
failed
ripped
didn’t
wasn’t
started
got
room
couldn’t
thought
wouldn’t
joined
hot
allow
ones
cannon
mechanical
barely
ballistic
wind
like
mass
hull
technological
old
remembered
assault
external
mind
tap
little
need
tapped
ask
pair
wrist
world
war
wish
come
nuclear
study
say
research

46. Science Fiction tank garage smoke final love hatch driver tank’s eye
Boudicca
Hal Wilson
Using the tiny rear hatch, Ramsey climbed into another world.
Fierce heat and light gave way to dim, air-conditioned cool. The forest's breathless scent yielded to the stink of oil, sweat and fuel. Narrow seats hung from roof-mounted pistons, where the tank commander and another crewman perched uncomfortably.
"Get in already, for fuck's sakes," Boudicca hissed, clipping on her bowl-shaped helmet. With the cupolas buttoned up, the last streak of sunlight died as Ramsey closed the hatch. The second crewman offered a spare headset as the driver revved the engines. The cramped interior thundered with oppressive noise.

47. Science Fiction troops began holographic overhead troop head beginning
pilot
plane
Science Fiction
troops
began
holographic
overhead
troop
head
beginning
pilot
plane
Balance and Rebalance
“Do not dismount. Wait for our interpreters,” a command came over the radio.
The linguist drone buzzed overhead and projected a hologram on the ground below it. Inside the interpretation Stryker about 500 meters to the rear, adjacent to the command vehicle, a military linguist already engaged in virtual reality through hologram communications. His holographic image approached the North Koreans and spoke, then turned to Layla in her Stryker. “They’ll comply,” he said.

48. Something Old, Something New
Science Fiction
began
bots
web
pod
industrial
lab
wave
sending
knowing
began
bots
web
pod
industrial
lab
wave
sending
knowing
Something Old, Something New
Darren Carter
After re-confirming the mission parameters with the GBaND, Nuygen killed the comm link. His E-Shadow sent an order the inert TARP pod and with a series of clicks, an Auxiliary Support Pack detached itself from the rear of the craft. Current military strategy called for three types of support bots for a soldier on the ground. As the Pack's various hatches began to open, the bots spilled out.
First came the Swarm, a collective hive of what looked like miniature metallic dragonflies. With amazing agility and speed, the Swarm was primarily responsible for maintaining the lieutenant's intelligence grid. Constantly monitoring the environment and both actively and passively scanning for threats, the Swarm provided real-time situational awareness to the E-Shadow.

49. 10 SBIR topics least like any Science Fiction topic
measurement
measurements
weather
atmospheric
measure
phase
measuring
instrumentation
data
fuel
cell
hydrogen
oxygen
fuels
gas
diesel
power
coating
coatings
corrosion
surface
surfaces
application
materials
aircraft
structures
structural
vibration
smart
structure
control
actuators
strain
actuator
composite
composites
matrix
ceramic
material
strength
thermal
heat
cooling
management
transfer
systems
temperature
heating
engine
turbine
engines
bearing
advanced
high
propulsion
technology
antenna
array
antennas
phased
design
frequency
arrays
performance
computational
analysis
methods
code
modeling
complex
optimization
dynamics
codes
infrared
detector
plane
focal
detectors
imaging
sensors
10 SBIR topics least like any Science Fiction topic
measurement
measure-ments
weather
atmospheric
measure
phase
measuring
instrumen-tation
data
fuel
cell
hydrogen
oxygen
fuels
gas
diesel
power
coating
coatings
corrosion
surface
surfaces
application
materials
aircraft
structures
structural
vibration
smart
structure
control
actuators
strain
actuator
composite
composites
matrix
ceramic
material
strength
thermal
heat
cooling
management
transfer
systems
temperature
heating
engine
turbine
engines
bearing
advanced
high
propulsion
technology
antenna
array
antennas
phased
design
frequency
arrays
performance
computational
analysis
methods
code
modeling
complex
optimi-zation
dynamics
codes
infrared
detector
plane
focal
detectors
imaging
sensors

50. Science Fiction
measurement
measure-ments
weather
atmospheric
measure
phase
measuring
instrumen-tation
data
measurement
measure-ments
weather
atmospheric
measure
phase
measuring
instrumen-tation
data
AF TITLE: Portable Microwave Refractometer System for Sensing Refractive Index and Humidity Fluctuations
OBJECTIVE: Develop a portable microwave refractometer system for sensing refractive index and humidity fluctuations.
DESCRIPTION: There is a need in the atmospheric sciences community for a portable microwave refractometer that can be used for sensing the atmospheric refractive index and humidity fluctuations at high speed. The system is needed for fine-scale research measurements and for examining the performance of clear-air radars over time

51. Science Fiction
structures
structural
vibration
smart
structure
control
actuators
strain
actuator
structures
structural
vibration
smart
structure
control
actuators
strain
actuator
AF TITLE: Miniaturized Vibration Isolation System (MVIS)
DESCRIPTION: AFRL/VS is interested in developing innovative new concepts for a miniaturized vibration isolation system. The motivation is based on previous experiences where vibration of satellite optical systems due to on-board disturbances--such as reciprocating cryocooler components, solar panel gimbals, and attitude control system actuators such as reaction wheels--can seriously degrade the performance of such systems, consequently jeopardizing mission capability.

52. Science Fiction
Science Funding

53. Science Fiction Science Funding Actually using technology
How multiple technological advances work together
What the experience of the future feels like
The effects of technology on the individual and society

54. Science Fiction Science Funding Combat operations in space
Autonomous processing of detailed data feeds and databases(a.k.a cyber!)
Advanced medical care in a forward setting
Missile offense and defense
Drones and other combat robots
Better than unaugmented humans
Artificial Intelligence
Actually using technology
How multiple technological advances work together
What the experience of the future feels like
The effects of technology on the individual and society

55. Science Fiction Science Funding Combat operations in space
Autonomous processing of detailed data feeds and databases(a.k.a cyber!)
Advanced medical care in a forward setting
Missile offense and defense
Drones and other combat robots
Better than unaugmented humans
Artificial Intelligence
Individual non- glamorous technologies
Vibration
Materials stress and fatigue
Materials properties
Managing heat
Propulsion
Antennas
Actually using technology
How multiple technological advances work together
What the experience of the future feels like
The effects of technology on the individual and society

56. Thanks!
TRADOC Mad Scientist