1. Understanding the Seafood Market – Building the Market for Gulf Seafood
James L. Anderson
Director, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems
Professor, Food and Resource Economics
University of Florida

2. “What about aquaculture?” “Well, it’s not sustainable.”
The Problem
Conversation heard in reaction to President Zoellick’s interest in the World Bank investing in productive oceans
Place: Elevator between 5th and 1st floors, World Bank, Washington DC
Time: February 2011
“Why would the Bank invest in oceans. It doesn’t make sense. All the fisheries are already depleted”
“What about aquaculture?”
“Well, it’s not sustainable.”
That sums up the problem

3. The Great Opportunity

4. More Food Needed (Traditional Agriculture Only)
9 Billion by 2050
60%
More Food Needed (Traditional Agriculture Only)
Alexandratos, N. and J. Bruinsma World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No Rome, FAO.
Source: NIC Report (2013); FAOSTAT; U.S. Census Bureau

5. Food Production Problem?
Source: FAOSTAT, WHO

6. Demand for Fish and Meat

7. FISH: PORTION OF ANIMAL PROTEIN INTAKE
Nearly 50% in many African countries
63% in Cambodia
55% in Indonesia
56% in Bangladesh
7% in US
21 % in China
China’s per capita consumption of seafood
1981: 5.2 kg/capita/year
2011: 33.1 kg/capita/year
Seafood supply: China and US,
Source: FAO (2016a)

8. What is the role of Capture Fisheries?
Fresh 12 (7%) marine 81 (50%) aqua 70 (43%)
Source: FAO FishStat (2013); Fish to 2030 (2013)

9. Have Marine Capture Fisheries Reached Their Maximum Potential?
WORLD MARINE CAPTURE HARVEST in 2013: 81 MT
Freshwater Capture (12 MMT in 2013)
Maximum Additional Harvest from Sustainable Marine Capture Fisheries
Sunken Billions Revisited (World Bank/Arnason)
& EDF Study (Costello etal):
Max Sustainable Marine Harvest – World at MSY: MMT (20% +/-)
Max Incl. Freshwater Capture (12 MMT in 2013) MMT
This Requires Major Reforms in Fisheries around the World
Especially in Developing Countries…
DIFFICULT
NOTE: Enhancement aquaculture could be used as a lever to encourage change
Sources: Sunken Billions Revisited (Forthcoming); Potential for Global Fish Recovery (Forthcoming) (
Fish to 2030 (2013); WRI (2015)

10. Future Production Growth must come from Aquaculture
MSY is for marine fisheries but no distinction was made between inland and marine fisheries in the Fish to 2030
Sources: FAO FishStat (2013); Fish to 2030 (2013) Sunken Billions Revisited (Forthcoming); Potential for Global Fish Recovery (Forthcoming)

11. Fish for direct human consumption
I Figured I would have both the food fish and the total production graphs in there and you can choose what you want to do. The different forecasts vary in terms of the type of fish and the sources they are after. I’m not sure which is the best to ‘anchor’ the story too
Source: FAO FishStat (2013)

12. Fish to 2030 S. Msangi, IFPRI M. Kobayashi, World Bank M. Batka, IFPRI
S. Vannuccini, FAO
M. Dey, Univ. of Arkansas
J. L. Anderson, Univ. of Florida

13. Aquaculture Supply Growth (1000 MT)

14. Aquaculture Supply Growth: Regions
More than 100% increase between
India
Latin America and Caribbean
Southeast Asia
50-100% increase between
South Asia (excl. India)
Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Less than 50% increase between
Everywhere else

15. Consumption Growth: Regions
More than 50% increase from 2010 to 2030
South Asia (excl. India)
30-50% increase from 2010 to 2030
India
Southeast Asia
North America
Middle East and North Africa
China
Sub-Saharan Africa
(per capita down about 20%)
Decline from 2010 to 2030
Japan

16. Fish to 2030 2030 (Model Projection)
Aquaculture will produce about 2/3 of food fish
China will consume nearly 40% of seafood
Production of tilapia, shrimp, will double from 2010 to 2030
Aquaculture will grow fastest in India, Latin America, and Southeast Asia
S. Msangi, IFPRI
M. Kobayashi, World Bank
M. Batka, IFPRI
S. Vannuccini, FAO
M. Dey, Univ. of Arkansas
J. L. Anderson, Univ. of Florida

17. With all this growth what is happening in the US market?

18. Does anyone remember this report?
It identified great potential for US marine aquaculture and a path forward…but…
25 years later the US is still just starting!

19. TWO PATHS
It has been clear for decades that the growth in seafood supply will come mostly from aquaculture.
TWO PATHS FOR THE US:
1) Source new supply from farmed imports (mostly from developing countries)
2) Source new supply from a growing US aquaculture industry
So far the US has chosen #1

20. Now it is approaching $15 billion
When Marine Aquaculture: Opportunities for Growth
was written in 1992 –
the seafood trade deficit was about $2.2 billion
Now it is approaching $15 billion
Source: NMFS (2016) Fisheries of the US, 2014

21. Source: FAO FishStat (2013)

22. Risks of Dependence on Imports from Developing Countries
Environment Management/Pollution Standards
Disease Management – Antibiotic Use
Lack of Transparency
Food Security
Potential Labor Exploitation
Fraud – origin, species, adulteration
Quality Control
Political Uncertainty
Nonnative Species Introduction

23. Per Capita Red Meat, Poultry, and Fish and Shellfish Consumption
From “RM-P-F per Capita Consumption” file.
Source: USDA (2015)

24. U.S. Per Capita Seafood Consumption: More Aquaculture - Fewer Species
1987
Tuna
3.51
Shrimp
2.29
Cod
1.68
Pollock
0.88
Flatfish
0.73
Clams
0.66
Catfish
0.60
Salmon
0.44
Crab
0.33
Scallops
Other
4.76
Total
16.21
2015
Shrimp 4
Salmon
2.88
Canned tuna
2.2
Tilapia
1.38
Pangasius & Catfish
1.26
Pollock
0.97
Cod
0.66
Crab
0.56
Clams
0.33
Others
1.32
Total
15.5
% Change
75%
555%
-37%
>1000%
110%
10%
-64%
70%
-50%
-82%
-4%
56%
76%
71%
91%
Source: NFI (1990, 2016)

25. Average US Intake per Week Compared to the US Dietary Recommended Intake
Source: U.S.D.H.&H.S. and U.S.D.A – 2020 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. 8th Ed. Dec Table 2-6.

26. Growing the Market and Product Innovation
Stable or Declining Cost
Consistently Available
Consistent Quality
Meet Consumer Demands-
Commodity and Niche

27. Long Term Commodity Price Trends

28. Sources: USDA, Urner Barry (2016), NMFS

30. Salmon

31. Technology & Trade
Alaska – Bristol Bay
Norway

32. Atlantic Salmon Production Real US import price fresh fillet Source: Ragnar Tveteras, GOAL 2016
Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSC/Eurostat (prices). Note: Prices until 2015 are annual averages. Price in 2016 is January-July average.
GOAL 07 Fish Production Estimates & Trends - Ragnar Tveteras 32

34. The Aquaculture Sector Creates New Markets
Salmon Farmers created new markets outside the US West Coast
New Products – Pin-Bone-Out Salmon Fillet
Moved Salmon into Sushi/Sashimi
Farmed Salmon created new markets premium wild salmon

35. Wild Salmon
Think wine

36. Farmed Salmon Wild Shrimp Source: http://www.seafoodwatch.org/

37. Tilapia Market Very rapid growth
Competition for flatfish, snapper and other whitefish
Fillets – Market innovation
Many environmental NGOs are positive about tilapia
Increase globalization
Wal-Mart
Photo: J.L. Anderson

38. Global Tilapia Aquaculture Production US import prices frozen fillet Source: Ragnar Tveteras, GOAL 2016
Sources: FAO: Miscellaneous sources: NMFS: Prices US import frozen fillet.
Note: Prices are annual averages, except for 2015(January-July average)

40. Shrimp

41. World Production of Shrimp Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture
54%
52%
53%
51%
Aquaculture accounted for 54%
of world shrimp supplies in 2014.
49%
28%
26%
Sources: FAO (2016); GOAL (2014, 2016).
Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included.
China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei.

42. Down 12% between 2011-13, Up 17% between 2013-16
U.S. Shrimp Imports
Down 12% between , Up 17% between
Imports from Thailand declined sharply (by 68%) between 2010 and 2014, with a slight recovery taking place in 2015 (from 65 to 74 thousand tons). India and Indonesia have become the top exporters to the U.S. market, accounting for 44% of imports in 2016.
Source: USDC/NMFS (2016)
* Estimate

43. U.S. Landings of Wild-Caught Shrimp ~2% global shrimp harvest
~3.5% global farmed shrimp harvest
~10% US shrimp supply
Thousand MT
Source: USDC/NMFS (2016)

44. Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import Prices
Real prices increased sharply during 2013 but returned to previous levels in 2014 and early Real prices have remained stable over the last 12 months.
Source: USDC/NMFS (2016).

45. Reframe Aquaculture Compare with Other Animal Proteins
Footprint – Environment
Efficient Resource Use
Low Waste
Cost/Value
Nutrition
Traceability
Reliable and Consistent
Sources: Marine Harvest Industry Handbook (2015);
NMFS; Flachowsky (2002); SRAC Publication No. 282 (2009); FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 554 (2010)

46. Feed Conversion Ratio
Sources: Marine Harvest Industry Handbook (2015); NMFS; Flachowsky (2002); SRAC Publication No. 282 (2009); FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 554 (2010)

47. Source: World Resources Report: Creating a Sustainable Food Future (WRI 2014)

48. Water Use Efficiency NEED AT LEAST ONE MORE FISH SPECIES
Source: Marine Harvest Industry Handbook (2015); Wu, Bazer, and Cross (2014);
Boyd et al (2007)

49. Nutrient Emissions
Source: Flachowsky (2002); Hall, Delaporte, Phillips, Beveridge, and O’Keefe (2011)

51. Demand
An increasing and wealthier global population requires more seafood … at least more high-quality, value-added seafood… not necessarily more volume
International trade is growing
Much of the trade flow is from developing countries to developed countries - food security, sustainability issues
Consumers tastes and preferences are changing
Aquaculture is creating new markets
Few species will dominate – opportunity for niches

52. Build Markets - Reframe the Message
Get the Story Right – Aquaculture is the future
Get credible facts
Focus on production efficiency of resource use compared to other animal protein
Demand responsible production
Trust, transparency, and safety are essential
Nutrition that tastes good and good for the planet
Work with the environmental community, chefs and celebrities
Work with the fishing industry to develop markets

53. Thank You James.anderson@ufl.edu http://isfs.institute.ifas.ufl.edu
Photo: J.L. Anderson