1. Power Sector Development:
Present and Future Scenario
A S M Alamgir Kabir
Chairman, BPDB 1
22 March, 2012 1 1

2. Present Power Generation Scenario2

3. Bangladesh’s Power Sector: At a Glance
Electricity Growth : 14 % (July-Jan FY-2012) (Av. 7 % since 1990)
Generation Capacity : MW (March, 2012)
Total Consumers : Million
Transmission Lines : 8,600 km
Distribution Lines : 2,78,000 km
Per Capita Generation : kWh (incl. Captive)
Access to Electricity : 53 % 3

4. Present Generation Capacity (March, 2012) Generation Capacity (MW)
Public Sector
SL.
Generation Capacity (MW) 1.
BPDB
3483 2.
APSCL
662 3.
EGCB
210
Subtotal
4,355 (54 %)
Private Sector
IPPs
1272
SIPPs (BPDB) 99
SIPPs (REB)
226 4.
15 YR. Rental
168 5.
3/5 YR. Rental
554 6.
Quick Rental
1331
3,650 (46 %)
Total
8,005
Considering 20 % Maintenance and Forced Outage, Available Generation Capacity is about 6400 MW without fuel constraint 4

5. Demand Supply Situation
Generation: 5000 – 5600 MW (Capacity MW)
Highest so far: 5569 MW ( March 16, 2012)
Gas shortage causes MW less Power Generation
Peak Demand: 6400 MW (with DSM)
Load shedding up to 1000 MW during hot summer days (with DSM)
Shortage and unreliable power supply has constrained economic growth 5

6. Average Peak Power Generation
Av. Peak Power Generation in August’ : 4956 MW
Av. Peak Power Generation in February’ : 4941 MW
Av MW more Peak Generation in Jan’12 compare to Jan’11 6

7. Energy Generation by Fuel Type: July-Jan, Comparison in FY 2011 and FY 2012
Energy Growth in FY12 (July11-Jan.12) is about 14 % 7

8. Planning Perspective

9. Primary Fuel Supply Scenario
Gas: No significant gas discovery in recent years; Depleting gas reserve restricts gas based generation
Coal: Near term option; Indigenous or Imported; Base Load;
Oil: Volatile market; High price; For peaking duty
LNG: Necessary to ensure secure and reliable gas supply
Nuclear: Safe technology; No pollution; Expected to be future Base Load option 9

10. Generation Expansion Plan
Immediate: Months
- Rental Plants (liquid fuel)
Short term: Months
- Peaking Plants (liquid fuel)
Medium term: years
- Combined Cycle Plants (Gas or dual fuel)
- Peaking Plant (Gas or dual fuel)
- Coal fired steam plants
Long term: beyond 5 years
- LNG based Combined Cycle Plants
- Domestic/Imported Coal Power Plant
- Gas/Oil based Peaking Plant
- Nuclear Power Plant
- Renewable Energy 10

11. Power Generation Addition From Jan 09 to Feb. 12
Gen Addition Jan 09 – Dec : MW
Gen Addition Jan 10 – Dec : MW
Gen Addition Jan 11 – Dec : 1763 MW
Gen Addition Jan 12 – Feb : MW
Total Gen. Addition (Jan 09 – Mach 12) : 3286 MW
Gas based: 1400 MW; Oil based: 1900 MW; Total: 3300 MW
Av MW more Peak Generation in Jan’12 compare to Jan’11
Details 11 11 11 11

12. Gen Project Implemented Since 2009 and Plan for 2012 - 2016
Plants Commissioned During
YEAR
2009 (MW)
2010 (MW)
2011 (MW)
TOTAL (MW)
Public
255
800
1055
Private
356
270
125
751
Q. Rental
250
838
1088
Total
775
1763
2894
In 2011, 1763 MW commissioned against plan for 2194 MW; 80 % success rate
Calendar Year Wise Projects Completion (From 2012 to 2016)
YEAR
2012 (MW)
2013 (MW)
2014 (MW)
2015 (MW)
2016 (MW)
TOTAL
(MW)
Public
632
1467
1660
1410
750
5919
Private
1354
1372
1637
772
1600
6735
Power Import
500
Total
1986
3339
3297
2182
2350
13,154
Plan: January, 2012
Details 12

13. Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)
January, 2012 13

14. Fuel Mix up to 2017 27 36 35 24 19 15 CY Gas + LNG Hydro Coal
(Dom + Imp)
Power Imp + Renewable
Oil
Total (MW)
Capacity (MW) %
2011
5107
67%
220 3%
200 0%
2086 27
7,600
2012
5707
60% 2%
3432 36
9,600
2013
7283
58%
512 4%
4339 35
12,000
2014
9278
62% 1%
766 5%
630
4027
15,000
2015
10206
61%
1538 9% 24
16,000
2016
10956
3138
17%
3395 19
18,000
2017
11557
57%
4938
24%
3095 15
20,000

15. Generation Capacity by Fuel Type15 15

16. Project Implementation

17. Successful Contract Signed since Jan 2009
Sl. No.
Description
No. of Plant
Capacity
(MW)
Commis. (MW)
01.
Rental 3
265
02.
Quick Rental 17
1388
1338
03.
IPP 14
1870 --
04.
Public Sector 18
2010
733
Total 52
About: 5,500
About: 2,300
Out of 5500 MW, 2300 MW (28 Plants) already commissioned
24 Projects with capacity 3,200 MW under construction 17

18. Projects Under ConstructionSl
Description
No. of Projects
Capacity
(MW) 01
Quick Rental 1 50 02
IPP 14
1870 03
Public Sector 9
1277
Total 24
About: 3,200
Expected Commissioning of above Under Construction Projects
January – June : MW
July – December 2012 : MW
January – June : MW
July – December 2013 : MW
January – June : MW
July – December 2014 : MW
Details u/c 18

19. Private Sector (IPP’s)
Projects Under Tendering Process: Contract within Next 6 Months
Sl.
Description
No. of Projects
Capacity
(MW) 01
Public Sector 10
2785 02
Private Sector (IPP’s) 20
2859
Total 30
About: 5,600 19

20. Public Sector CC Conversion Projects (Energy Efficiency Improv.)Sl No
Name of the Power Plant
Capacity
(MW)
Owner
Fuel
Est. Project Cost
(Million US $)
Expected
COD 1.
Conversion of Ghorashal 4x210 MW
(3,4,5,6 Unit) Steam into 2290 MW
CCCP
1450
BPDB
Gas
1800
2015 2.
Conversion of Baghabri 171 MW GT
into 250 MW CCPP 85 65
2013 3.
Conversion of Sikalbaha 150 MW
Peaking Plant into 225 MW CCPP 75
Gas/ Liquid Fuel 60 4.
Conversion of Shahjibazar 2x35 MW
into 105 MW CCPP 35 40
Total (Public)
1,645
2,000

21. Renewable Energy Projects21

22. Renewable Energy Projects
Sl. NO.
Location of the Project
Capacity
Type of Project 1
Parki Beach, Chittagong
[Pilot Basis]
20 MW
Wind Power 2 MW 3
Moghnamoghat,
Cox’s Bazar
10 MW 4
Hatia, Sandwip, St. Martin and Monpura Islands
4 MW 5
Kaptai, Rangamati
5 MW
Grid Connected Solar PV 6
Sarishabari, Jamalpur
2-4 MW 7
RTC, Rajshahi
1 MW 8
Rajabarihat Goat Development Farm, Rajshahi 9
Kaptai Grid S/S
[Pilot basis]
500 kW 10
St. Martin Island
200 kW
Wind and Solar Hybrid 11
Wind Mapping Study for Coastal Region - FS 22

23. Tariff

24. Tariff Adjustment: Proposal
Cost reflective tariff to make sector entity viable
Lifeline tariff to lessen burden on poor customers
Multiyear tariff proposal to make proper budget and investment plan
Fuel pass-through in tariff to tackle volatile fuel market 24

25. Tariff Adjustment Average Cost in FY 2012 : 6.01 Tk/kWh
Average Fuel Cost: HSD – 16 Tk/kWh; FO – 14 Tk/kWh; Coal- 3.5 Tk/kWh;
Gas: Tk/kWh
High cost liquid fuel based power plants will get less dispatch (according to merit order);
Bulk Tariff Increased since Oct 2008
From Feb 2011: 11 % and from Aug 2011: 6 %
From Dec 2011: 16 % and from Feb 2012: 14 %
Retail Tariff Increase since March 2007
- In 2009 and 2010 nominal 5 % each year
- From Feb 2011: 5 %
- From Dec 2011: 13 % and from Feb 2012: 7% 25

26. Cost of Supply at Different Voltage Level
Voltage Level
Cost of Supply
2009 – 2010
2010 – 2011
2011 – 2012
Cost of Supply for Bulk (Utility) A
Generation (Net Gen)
2.526
4.057
5.80 B
Transmission(132 KV Bulk : DPDC ) (Excl wheeling charge)
2.598
4.173
5.97 C
Distribution (33 KV Bulk : DESCO, REB, etc) (Excl wheeling charge)
2.625
4.215
6.03 D
Average (Bulk) Supply Cost
2.62
4.20
6.01 E
Bulk Tariff
2.37
2.61
3.74 F
Difference
0.25
1.59
2.27 26 26

27. Payment Requirement for each unit in FY-2012: 6.01 Tk/kWh
15 %
11 %
0.66 Tk/kWh
5 %
0.30 Tk/kWh
69 %
4.15 Tk/kWh
Estimated Av Supply Cost: 6.01 Tk/kWh BPDB
Payments to others: 5.35 Tk/kWh
Present Av Bulk Tariff: 3.74 Tk/kWh
Proposed Av Bulk Tariff: 4.14 Tk/kWh (Increase 0.40 Tk/kWh; 11 %) 27

28. BPDB’s Non Fuel Cost for each unit for Bulk Supply Cost: Components of 0.66 Tk
0.11 Tk/kWh
0.05 Tk/kWh
0.23 Tk/kWh
0.02 Tk/kWh
0.11 Tk/kWh
0.09 Tk/kWh
0.05 Tk/kWh 28

29. Comparison of Retail Tariff in Terms of US Cents
Category
2000
(Effective from November)
2011
(Effective from December)
Taka/kWh
US Cents/kWh
(1 US $=Tk 54.00)
(1 US $=Tk 81.95)
Residential
from 00 unit to100 unit
from 101 to 300 unit
2.15
3.30
3.98
6.11
2.73
3.81
3.33 (- 16 %)
4.65 (- 24 %)
Agricultural
1.75
3.24
2.03
2.47 (- 24 %)
Commercial
(low Voltage)
4.65
8.61
6.80
8.30 (- 4 %)
Small Industrial
3.50
6.48
5.27
6.43 (- 1 %)
70-75 % cost of investment and full cost of Oil incurred in Foreign currency 29

30. Electricity Tariff (Res & Agri) in Neighboring CountriesSl
Countries/Area
Residential
(0-100 unit)
Agriculture 1
Bangladesh
Tk 2.73
Tk 2.03 2
West Bengal
WBSEDCL
Tk (Rural)
Tk (Urban)
Tk (Off Peak) 3
KESC, Pakistan
Tk 3.56
Tk 5.25
(Off Peak) 4
Nepal
Tk 6.38
Tk 3.46 7
SriLanka
Tk 7.43

31. Transmission Sub-Sector

32. Transmission at a Glance
Transmission Operator
Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB)
Transmission Line
230 kV : 2647 Circuit km
132 kV : 5969 Circuit km
Substations Capacity
230/132 kV : 7,225 MVA (No.15)
132/33 kV : 10,492 MVA (No.99) 32 32

33. Key Transmission Projects of PGCB in Near Future
Power Evacuation for Two Mega Coal Projects at Chittagong & Khulna (2X1300 MW)
Power Evacuation for Bibiyana 2x341 MW and 1X450 MW Power Plant
Power Evacuation for Bhola 2X 225 MW Power Plant
Power evacuation from other planned power plants
Sub station capacity enhancement
1st Cross Border Inter connection with India 33 33

34. 34

35. Distribution Sub-Sector

36. Distribution Scenario (FY-2011)
Total Distribution Lines : 2,78,000 Km
Irrigation Consumer : 2.76 Lac
Village Electrified : 53,925 (64 % of Total village)
Per Capita Consumption : 220 kWh (incl. captive)
Distribution Loss : %
Account Receivable : Eq. months

37. T & D Loss

38. Distribution Loss

39. Pre-Paid Metering Scheme to Reduce Demand and Loss
Existing Pre – Paid meters: 56,000
Under implementation: 200,000
Requirement (except rural areas): 4 Million
Cost involvement: 3200 Crore (460 M US $)
Implementation Time: By 2014
Benefits:
demand reduction: 200 – 250 MW
loss reduction: overall 3 %
improved accounts receivable
help in peak load management

40. Demand Side Management (DSM) and Energy Efficiency Improvement Program

41. DSM Measures to Reduce Demand
Shifting peak load by changing shop closing times:
has reduced demand by 350 MW
Staggering holiday has reduced demand by 150 MW
Energy efficiency improvement program

42. Energy Efficiency Initiatives
Include Energy Conservation and Solar Power issues in the National Building Code
Include Energy Conservation and Alternative Energy issues in the text book curriculum
Installation of Solar Panel in the Govt., Semi Government and autonomous organizations within next 3 years
Use of CFL bulb in all ministries and public sector entities.
About 10.5 million CFL distributed in first phase and 17.5 million will be distributed soon
Conventional street lights will be replaced by LED and solar subsequently
Public awareness for energy conservation
Discontinuation of incandescent bulb and electric heater subsequently

43. Energy Efficiency Initiatives
Limited use of Air Conditioners keeping temp at 25 degree C
Encouraging the business community for using solar energy
Introduction of Energy Star Rating system in the electric appliances through BSTI
Discouraging use of neon sign in the markets/ shopping malls at night
Closing of markets and shopping malls within 8 p.m.
Introduction of quality pre-paid and smart meters all over the country

44. PSMP-2010
(2011 – 2030)

45. Power System Master Plan (up to 2030)
Updates of PSMP 2006: Due to change of planning perspective
PSMP 2010 : Long term planning up to 2030
Study completion: February 2011
Findings:
- Generation capacity requirement by 2021: 24,000 MW
- Generation capacity requirement by 2030: 39,000 MW
- Coal based generation capacity by 2030: 20,000 MW
- Coal and Nuclear for base load power requirement
- Cross Boarder Trade with neighboring countries 45

46. Probable Power Generation: Primary Fuel Sources by 2030
Sl. No.
Description
Capacity (MW)
Probable Location (s) 1
Domestic Coal
11,250
North West Region at Mine Mouth 2
Imported Coal
8,400
Chittagong and Khulna 3
Domestic Gas/LNG
8,850
Near Load Centers 4
Nuclear
4,000
Ruppur 5
Regional Grid
3,500
Bahrampur - Bheramara, Agartola - Comilla, Silchar - Fenchuganj, Purnia-Bogra, Myanmar - Chittagong 6
Others (Oil, Hydro and Renewable)
2,700
Total
38,700

47. Road Map for Coal Power Development (as of 2030)
Domestic Coal
K-D-P 6x1000 MW USC
K-D-P 8x 600 MW USC
Import Coal
Meghnaghat 2x600MW
Zajira/New Meg 3x600MW
Chittagong 3x660MW
Moheshkhali/Matarbari 4x600MW
Khulna 2x660MW (Dom Future)
Railway
Total 19,200MW (New)
Coal Center
Chittagong
Matarbari
Sonadia Island
　　: Potential Coal PS
　　: Potential Coal Center
　　: Ocean-going vessel
　　: Transship

48. Regional Power Exchange: Possibilities
1000MW
750MW
THAKURGAON
1000MW
SILCHAR
FENCHUGANJ
ALIDUARPUR
BOGURA
PURNIA
BARAPUKURIA
FENCHUGANJ
250MW
PALLATANA
COMILLA (N)
BHERAMARA
BAHARAMPUR
500 MW
COMILLA (N)
BAHARAMPURBHERAMARA
500MW [2013-]   500MW [2018-]  
MYANMAR
CHITTAGONG

49. Generation Plan: From 2017 to 2021Sl
Description
Capacity (MW)
Executing Agency
Fuel
Expected
COD 1
Meghnaghat Large #4, 750 MW, CC
750
BPDB
Gas
2017 2
Chittagong South 600MW #1ST
600
Coal-I 3
Karnafuli Hydro #6,7
100
Hydro 4
Megnagatt 600MW #1
2018 5
Keraniganj #1, 750 MW, CC 6
Power import from Myanmar
500
Import 7
Rooppur Nuclear # 1, 1000 MW
1000
BAEC
Nuclear 8
B-K-D-P 1 600MW #1
Coal-D
2019 9
B-K-D-P 1 600MW #2 10
Peaking Power- 2019
200
HFO 11
B-K-D-P 1 600MW #3
2020 12
Rooppur Nuclear # 2, 1000 MW 13
Peaking Power -2020
2021 14
Power Import Bahra-Bhera Phase-2 15
Peaking Power-2021
Total:
8,100 49

50. Challenges Enhanced Gas Exploration, Production
Primary Fuel Supply
Enhanced Gas Exploration, Production
Domestic coal development
Coal Import (long term contract) and deep sea port for coal handling
LNG import
Safe Nuclear Technology
Project Financing
Ensuring financing for Public and Private sector projects
Availability of foreign currency
Transportation of fuel and equipment
Infrastructure development by Railway and R&H
Dredging of river routes by BIWTA
Capacity build up of BPC, Railway, R&H and BIWTA etc.
Human Resources Development
Development of skilled manpower: adopt and operate new technology

51. Thank You