1. CHANGES OF SOLID FUEL CONSUMPTION IN LITHUANIAby
Gintaras Adžgauskas
Lithuanian Member Committee of World Energy Council
3rd Thematic Workshop
The Future of Total Primary Energy Supply in the Central-East European Countries
Katowice, November15, 2004
Source: Lithuanian energy institute

2. Content Trends of solid fuel consumption
Changes of coal consumers structure
Changes of wood and fuel consumers structure
Future changes
Ignalina NPP closure

3. Consumption of solid fuel in Lithuania

4. Consumption of primary energy in Lithuania

5. Forecast of primary energy demand in Lithuania, TWh
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Domestic resources
0,42
0,58
0,66
0,81
1,00
1,16
1,32
Coal
0,64
0,24
0,09
0,11
0,10
Natural gas
4,68
2,03
2,07
2,66
4,54
4,76
4,96
Oil products
7,01
2,95
2,23
2,52
2,72
2,88
3,05
Nuclear energy
4,45
3,09
2,19
1,95
0,0
Total
17,19
8,89
7,24
8,05
8,37
9,42

6. Primary energy demand in Lithuania
-10000
-5000
5000
10000
15000
20000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Nuclear
Wind
Coal
Others
Woods
Peat
LNG
Petrol
Diesel fuel
Heavy oil and oil shale oil
Oil
Natural gas
Orimulsion
Electricity
Hydro
Ktoe

7. Trends of coal and local solid fuel consumption

8. Structure of coal consumption in 1990

9. Structure of coal consumption in 2000

10. Structure of coal consumption in 2003

11. Structure of wood and peat consumption in 1990

12. Structure of wood and peat consumption in 2000

13. Structure of wood and peat consumption in 2003

14. With the closure of the Ignalina NPP by the end of 2009, primary energy demand in the basic scenario would increase only by approximately 30% during the period until However, total demand for fossil fuel would increase almost 1.9 times within 20 years, i.e. from 5 million tons of oil equivalent in 2000 to 9.4 million tons of oil equivalent in 2020.
The increase in natural gas consumption would be particularly rapid – from 2.1 million tons of oil equivalent in 2000 to 5 million tons of oil equivalent in During the forecasting period the share of natural gas in the primary energy balance would increase from 28.5% to 53%. The forecasts predict that at the end of the period the share of indigenous (excluding indigenous crude oil) and renewable resources in the total primary energy balance would increase by up to 14%, while the share of petroleum products would constitute about 32%.
After the closure of the Ignalina NPP, the existing capacities will be sufficient to meet the national demand for a period beyond the year 2010 in all cases of the domestic demand growth in Lithuania, if the Lithuanian Power Plant is maintained and modernized .

15. Heavy oil, which is produced at the Mažeikiai refinery factory, has sulphur content up to six percent.
Orimulsion, imported from Venezuela, has a high content of sulphur and heavy metals as well.
Nowadays, natural gas is only a more or less acceptable fuel for thermal power plants, but unfortunately it can only be supplied from Russia via single pipe, and price level and security of supply remain uncertain.

16. Kaunas University of Technology is responsible for preparation of study on the continuity of the use of nuclear energy in Lithuania. The study has to answer ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ for the future of nuclear energy in Lithuania.
Study covers technical, economic and a political evaluation of different possible scenarios for electric energy production at the nuclear power plants, including:
Ignalina NPP unit 2 operation prolongation possibilities; replacement of the RBMK reactors by BWR or PWR reactors (with remained turbines and
infrastructure);
Construction of a new NPP unit, while maintaining the previous infrastructure; and
Construction of a new NPP unit ‘from zero’ (after 15 to 20 years).

17. Thank you very much for your attention