1. Australia’s Comparative Advantage
Ian Lowe

2. A fundamental point
The future is not somewhere we are going, it is something we are creating
Many possible futures
We should be trying to shape a sustainable future

3. Council of Aust. Governments 1992
National Strategy for Ecologically Sustainable Development
“a path of economic progress that does not impair the welfare of future generations”
“equity within and between generations”
“recognition of the global dimension”
“protection of biological diversity and the maintenance of ecological processes and systems”

4. UN 2015 report on progress Australia 18th of 34 OECD nations
Below Canada, NZ, even UK
Among worst in OECD on resource use per head, waste per head, GHG / GDP, obesity rate
Well below average on poverty, inequality, gender pay gap, women in elected office
Scandinavian nations, USA

5. The report’s emphasis
The modelling finds that without reform, living standards are likely to rise modestly, taking real annual consumption per head from $36,000 today to $45,000 in However, with a major reform package across investments and structural reforms, annual consumption per head is projected instead to rise to $55,000, implying a reform dividend to living standards of $10,000 per head. This reform dividend rises further by 2050, to over $15,000 per head.

6. Environmental impacts
If this increase in per capita wealth were to be achieved, combined with the population increase resulting from current policies, we would double the impact on Australia’s natural systems.
Given that we are not now living sustainably, increasing the imbalance should certainly not be the top priority.

7. International benchmarking reports and domestic surveys show that Australia’s culture and society is fundamentally strong. In recent decades Australia has experienced one of the longer periods of sustained employment and income growth of any advanced country. Its basic institutions have been stable and issues of social equity and environmental sustainability have been of growing importance in national political discourse.

8. Australia has a strong and respected research capability, but it needs to improve its performance in the application of this research in industry settings.
Quality of Australian government leadership, both as perceived within Australia and from overseas, and regardless of political affiliation of the leadership, is presently rated poorly. Furthermore, government regulations are now considered to be high, which stifles innovation and growth.

9. While rightly celebrated for its egalitarian culture, Australia is facing concern over worsening outcomes in terms of inequality and participation. Our national identity and the Australian way will demand this is addressed, and increased educational attainment and labour-force participation by women and Indigenous communities are amongst key priorities for achieving this.

10. Increasing inequality
Top 1 %
Top 10 %
Bottom 90 %
1980
207,000
90,000
26,000
2006
465,000
150,000
35,000

11. Implications of economic growth for social equity: Rand Corporation
Expanding and improving the quality of education from early childhood to the tertiary level will further economic growth and promote equality. There are very high social returns from early education programs, and tertiary education has a very high pay-off in Australia. Investing in quality, expanding the number of institutions, and raising the minimum school leaving age are all likely to have positive impacts on economic growth and equality.

12. Australia’s environmental performance in response to economic growth has been mixed, with some indicators improving and others deteriorating. Environmental sustainability is an essential prerequisite for lasting prosperity and wellbeing. Global benchmarking shows that Australia has done especially well in terms of its water management, which can provide important lessons for other areas.

13. State of Environment
1996: much in good condition, but serious problems need to be addressed to achieve the goal of sustainable development
Loss of biodiversity, degradation of productive land, state of inland rivers, pressures on coastal zone, increasing greenhouse gas emissions
2001, 2006, reports: all those problems still getting worse.

14. ABS measures of progress
Since 1990, all economic indices positive
Social indicators mixed: about half better, about half worse
All environmental indicators worse

15. In a world of strategic uncertainty and rapid change, Australia could help to set the narrative and influence the agenda for global standards and regulations, and particularly in its region. If handled well, these would play to Australia’s strengths and allow it to compete more effectively on a global stage.

16. Climate change and pandemics are two great disrupters
Climate change and pandemics are two great disrupters. To those managing and attempting to mitigate them, they can also present opportunities. Appropriate investments in science and medical research and supporting policies, for effective commercialisation, will pay off. Australia does have an opportunity to be a global leader in innovation for adaptation to climate change.

17. While the policy and reform process is never without challenges, a survey of public attitudes conducted for this project shows there is an appetite for at least some level of policy change. This includes a desire for more spending on core drivers of comparative advantage such as education at the school and tertiary level, and transport and communications infrastructure.
Respondents were also very open to other investment change and to some institutional changes, particularly in labour market flexibility and pro-competition reforms.

18. IGBP [2004]
“In terms of some key environmental parameters, the Earth system has moved well outside the range of natural variability exhibited over the last half million years at least. The nature of changes now occurring simultaneously in the Earth System, their magnitudes and rates of change are unprecedented.”
Ian Lowe

19. IGBP [continued]
Human activities are affecting global systems in complex, interactive and apparently accelerating ways
Earth dynamics characterised by critical thresholds and abrupt changes
We can now alter natural systems in ways that threaten the very processes and components on which we depend
We could trigger catastrophic changes
W. Steffen et al, Springer-Verlag 2004
Ian Lowe

21. “Our present course is unsustainable - postponing action is no longer an option” GEO 2000 [UNEP 1999]

22. Limits to Growth + 40 years data
On all key parameters [population,
resource use, industrial output,
agricultural production and
pollution] we are tracking the “standard run” which leads to economic and ecological collapse before

23. “these recent crises - fuel, food and finance - are simply the three canaries in the mine. These are the early warning signals that our current economic system is simply not sustainable.”
WEF Global Agenda Summit, 2008

24. Looking after our Environment Supporting our Economy
Vision for a Sustainable City
Sustainability
Sustainability is about living within our means. It is about managing our consumption of resources and balancing environmental, economic and social outcomes. It means improving our quality of life, but making that improvement without leaving a burden on the future generations.
Looking after our Environment
Environmental Sustainability is about reducing our impact on the environment by protecting our air, water and land, our native flora and fauna. It means reducing the load on our natural resources, such as water and fuels for energy, and decreasing our production of waste.
A Better Place to Live
Liveability is about making Sydney a better place to live. It means being able to walk to your corner shop, local school, park or bus stop, as well as providing us with a choice of housing that meets our needs.
Environmental
Liveable
Just
Sustainable
Efficient
Healthy
Competitive
Supporting our Economy
Competitiveness is about supporting Sydney's role as a Global city, and ensuring our city's long term economic prosperity. It means providing quality infrastructure and services to service our jobs and the economy, and supporting urban centres

25. S O C I E TY
E N V I R T
E C O N O M Y

26. Markets give us things many of us want
Natural systems give us things we all really need

28. S O C I E T Y
E C O N O M Y
E C O L O G Y

29. Conclusions Our decisions shape the future Aim: a sustainable future
Many dimensions: resources, economic, social, environmental, health, cultural, spiritual…
Boosting economic growth should not be the top priority
Responsibility to other species and to future generations

30. Academy of Science study
“strong support for a future Australia that is more caring, community – focussed and fair than the present”