1. EU Perspective for 2030 Paweł Świeboda
Deputy Head of European Political Strategy Centre European Commission
@pswieboda
7th Strategy Forum of the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region
09 November 2016

2. 2030: complexity and volatility will only grow
From a world of problems to a world of dilemmas
Annick could you please reproduce the visual here?
09 November 2016

3. Unprecedented opportunities
Scientific breakthroughs
cell therapy
gene editing
New economic and business models
circular
connected
collaborative
Technological breakthroughs
self-driving robots
Annick could you please reproduce the visual here?
09 November 2016

4. Five dreams for 2030
Extending Europe's unparallel prosperity against the winds of demographic change
Making the technological disruption work for us, not against us
Maximising our security and resiliance
Regaining sense of societal cohesion and inclusion
Delivering on the promise of sustainability

5. 2030 Agenda: people, prosperity, governance and the planet

6. Scanning the Horizon People
Annick – could you make the sections look better?

7. Wealthier and Healthier
09 November 2016

8. Europeans: a declining share of the world population
% of world population
Europeans: a declining share of the world population
Note: 1990 figure includes West/East Europe and 1980 include EU28, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and 2050 include EU28 .
Source: Eurostat, OECD, World Bank
09 November 2016

9. Low fertility and high emigration
Declining populations, all fertility rates below the population reproduction level of 2.1 (in the cases of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Germany, this rate is even below EU28 average).
Source: Eurostat, 2011, 2015
09 November 2016

10. Government spending on early childhood education (below 6 years of age)
In percent of GDP, 2012
Source: OECD Social Expenditure Database
09 November 2016

11. Scanning the Horizon Prosperity
Annick – could you make the sections look better?

12. Upward convergence but at a slower pace
Graph 1:Pre crisis, CEE was growing fast, catching up with Western Europe
Graph 2: Post crisis, growth has been weaker but convergence has continued
Graph 3: There is no longer a clear divide in income levels between East and West
Source: IMF, 2015
09 November 2016

13. Risk of Automation of Jobs
Percentage of people at risk
Annick: could you please circle / highlight the Baltic Sea region countries that appear here?
Denmark
Germany
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Finland
Sweden
Note: Medium risk of automation affects 5% to 70% of tasks. High risk of automation affects over 70% of tasks.
Source: Arntz,M., T. Gregory and U. Zierahn, The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis, 2016, OECD.
09 November 2016

14. More human: more resilient
Trends in Routine and Non-Routine Tasks in Occupations, United States
Annick – could you please select 2/3 icons representing the way big data 'helps us think' / 'make better decisions'
Personally i like:
variety,
complexity,
plurality of sources
variability
Source: OECD Skills Outlook 2013, OECD
09 November 2016

15. Scanning the Horizon
Governance

16. Resilience through solidarity
€5.35
billion
195
Annick – could you make this fit the slide better?
*As of November 2015 – two year project cycle
Source : DG Comm – Energy Union 2 years on
09 November 2016

17. Scanning the Horizon
Planet

18. Sustainability as a driver of growth
Maritime economic activities with most future potential aggregated over sea basin
Environmental concerns have always been a strong driver for regional dialogue
For example, HELCOM, the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, established in the 1980s
The Contracting Parties are Denmark, Estonia, the European Union, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Russia and Sweden.
Environmental problems affecting the Baltic Sea all require close cooperation to be tackled:
a) Eutrophication (increased input of nutrients causing accelerated growth of planktonic algae and higher plant forms, thus increasing total primary production of organic matter)
Baltic Sea drainage area is highly populated, and human activities such as agriculture, municipal sewage, industries and atmospheric deposition
b) Hazardous substances
c) Overfishing
d) Marine litter
Source: European Commission Staff Working Document: A Sustainable Blue Growth Agenda for the Baltic Sea Region, SWD (2014) 167
HELCOM, the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, established in the 1980s
09 November 2016

19. EU Agenda 2030: Shaping the future

20. European Political Strategy Centre
Paweł Świeboda
European Political Strategy Centre
@pswieboda