1. SLCP Benefits Toolkit:
A Modular Approach to Estimating the Benefits of Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Emission Reductions
June 16, 2015

2. Overview
What We Know About the Benefits of Reducing Short-lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs)
Toolkit Goals
Description of Toolkit Components
Data Requirements
Outputs
How the Toolkit Can be Applied
Demonstration
Next Steps
Contacts
Link emissions to air pollution concentrations
Estimate change
in emissions
Estimate benefits
Health
Implementation of SLCP measures
Climate
Agriculture

3. Benefits of Reducing Black Carbon and Methane
A 2011 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment report identified 16 key measures to reduce black carbon (BC) and methane globally.
The UNEP methane and BC measures are estimated to reduce annual air-pollution related deaths by 1-5 million globally and avoid yield losses from 4 major crops of million ton globally each year.
Health and other benefits vary by country, as illustrated below.
Benefits of the methane and BC mitigation measures by country
Climate
Health
Crops
Shindell et al. Science, 2012

4. Making the Business Case for Reducing SLCPs
Toolkit Goals
Making the Business Case for Reducing SLCPs
The Toolkit is Designed to Allow Countries To:
Characterize national and/or urban emissions
Explore alternative emission scenarios at urban and/or national scale
Calculate country-level health, agriculture and regional climate benefits
Compare results across alternative scenarios
Support national and city scale policies that reduce SLCPs
Global Impact of UNEP Measures
on Health, Crop Yields and Climate

5. Toolkit Components LEAP – SLCP – Emissions and Scenarios Tool
Based on Stockholm Environment Institute’s LEAP – Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system – developed over last 25 years
Simple structure – initially designed for developing countries/emerging economies
Benefits Calculator – Simplified Benefits Estimation Tool
Estimates concentrations of particle pollution and ozone using a global air quality model (GEOS-Chem Adjoint)
Includes calculations to determine the impact on health, crops, and climate
Requires limited user inputs: emissions for 10 substances, population data and projections, crop yield, and optional input of health-response factors (some default data available)
BenMAP-CE – Customized Health Benefits and Economic Valuation Tool
Uses health impact functions to relate changes in particle pollution and ozone concentrations with health outcomes
Estimates the economic value of health outcomes

6. Toolkit Components LEAP – SLCP
Allows users to build SLCP-relevant emissions models and implement hypothetical SLCP control strategies
Calculates emissions for historical years
Based on default emission factors linked with activity data, which may be changed by users, if desired.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population and other drivers can be used to develop emission scenarios
Inputs
Outputs
Sector and technology-based emission factors and activity data
Current and future population data
Control strategy scenarios
Historical, baseline and reference scenario emissions for all pollutants

7. Toolkit Components Benefits Calculator
Links the emissions from LEAP-SLCP or other source to a global air quality model to estimate concentrations of particle pollution and ozone
Estimates benefits using concentration response relationships for health, crops and climate
Results distinguish between impacts of foreign and domestic emissions
Inputs
Outputs
Baseline and scenario emissions data
Current and future population data
Crop yields
Country-level changes in premature death
Country-level changes in crop yield
Changes in regional radiative forcing and surface temperature

8. Overview of LEAP-SLCP/Benefits Calculator
#1 Create emission model in LEAP
#2 Develop control strategies
#3 Estimate emission changes
#4 Translate emissions to air quality changes
#5 Estimate Benefits
Gridded Air Quality Data
#6 Report results
Charts and Graphs
Summary tables

9. The Toolkit: Modeling Emissions, Air Quality Changes and Benefits
Emissions from LEAP-SLCP or default emissions data
Health, Climate and Agricultural Benefits
Air Quality
E.g. population weighted PM2.5 concentration used with response function for health to give health number of deaths
Concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone calculated using GEOS-Chem Adjoint - a global air quality model

10. Toolkit Components BenMAP-CE
Calculates health impacts and monetized benefits using ozone and PM2.5 air quality data that the user specifies
Inputs*
Outputs
Modeled or monitored air quality data
Population counts
Baseline disease rates
Concentration-response relationships
Fine resolution changes in health outcomes (multiple spatial, time, and age endpoints) including premature mortality and asthma
Monetized benefits of changes in health outcomes
*BenMAP-CE is pre-loaded with data from the Global Burden of Disease study for each country including: modeled air quality, population, baseline mortality and the integrated exposure-response function. Users may wish to substitute their own, more detailed, data.

11. Overview of BenMAP-CE #1 Select air pollution data
o r
Modeled data
Monitored data
Import your own data
Use default settings or
#2 Estimate number of people exposed
Number of people exposed
#3 Estimate health impacts and economic values
risk
air pollution
#4 Report results
Maps
Summary tables

12. Applications
Countries just beginning can use the LEAP-SLCP tool to develop historical emission inventories, baseline and mitigation scenarios.
Countries with existing emissions data can modify LEAP-SLCP with their own data.
All countries can use the Benefits Calculator to estimate national-level health, crop yield and climate outcomes of different emissions.
Countries with emissions, air quality modeling or monitoring data can take advantage of the more refined health and economic benefit analytic capability available in the BenMAP-CE tool.

13. LEAP-SLCP Demo

14. BenMAP-CE Demo

15. LEAP-SLCP/Benefits Calculator
Next Steps
LEAP-SLCP/Benefits Calculator
Beta Testing
Peer Review
Planned Enhancements
Web based user interface
Add control cost data
Modeling for additional countries
BenMAP-CE
Incorporate 2013 Global Burden of Disease data
Online user forum
Training in Brazil, Chile and Thailand

16. Questions? Contacts
Stockholm Environment Institute
Johan Kuylenstierna, Harry Vallack, Charlie Heaps
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Benefits Calculator: Amanda Curry Brown
BenMAP-CE: Neal Fann
University of Colorado
Daven Henze