1. 5th Shire River Basin Conference 22 February Shire River Basin Management Project Shire Basin Planning Tool Sub-Component A1 Development of a Basin Planning Framework

2. Presentation Outline Objectives of the Shire Basin Planning Tool
Conceptual overview
Description of the Water Resources Model
Indicator results and Multi Criteria Analysis
Walk-through of the Shire Basin Planning Tool
Summary and conclusions
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

3. Introduction to the Shire Basin Planning Tool
What will Shire Basin Water Resources look like in 2035??
As planners, require analytical tools to quantify impacts of different developments and influences on the Basin
Shire Basin Planning Tool is example of one such analytical tool
Increases in Water Demand
Lake Malawi Hydrology
Shire Hydrology
Competing Water Use
Participatory decision making
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

4. Shire Basin Planning Tool Objectives
Analyse water resources development Planning Options
Planning option is a combination of water resources investments (development) combined with external scenario influences (e.g. climate change, population growth)
Needs to be based on underlying water balance modelling of the Basin
Easy to use and compare different planning options against one another
Download from the online knowledge portal and use on your computer (when finalised)
Equivalent example of driving a car. Don’t need knowledge of combustion engine to get where you going!
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

5. Always remember Models are a mathematical representation of reality
Need good quality data!
Configuration requires expertise and experience
Equivalent example of driving a car. Don’t need knowledge of combustion engine to get where you going!
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

6. Shire Basin Planning Tool - Concept
Complex Water Balance Model
User Friendly Interface
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7. Shire Basin Planning Tool - Components
Investments
External Scenarios
Irrigation
Water Supply
‘Other’
Hydropower
Dams
EWR
Climate change
Population growth
Upstream development
Generic Shire MIKE Hydro Basin Model
Inputs
Flows
Lake Levels
Runoff
Groundwater
etc.
Outputs
Hydrology
Water demands
Env. flows
Hydropower
Operational rules
Supply Reliability
EWR Supply
Energy Prod.
Lake Levels
Groundwater
Etc.
Indicators
MCA Weighting of indicators / groups
Evaluated Basin Scores
Strategies
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

8. Shire Basin Planning Tool - Process
Investments
External Scenarios
Irrigation 1
Irrigation 2
Irrigation 3
Water Supply 1
Water Supply 2
Water Supply 3
Hydropower 1
Hydropower 2
Hydropower 3
Etc…
Irrigation 1
Irrigation 2
Irrigation 3
Water Supply 1
Water Supply 2
Water Supply 3
Hydropower 1
Hydropower 2
Hydropower 3
Etc…
EWR Option
Climate Change
Upstream Development
Population Growth
MIKE Hydro Basin Model
Inputs
Outputs
Indicators
Strategies
Supply Reliability
EWR
Lake Levels
Economics
Energy Production
etc
MCA Weighting of indicators
Basin Scores
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

9. MIKE Hydro Basin Model Model includes: Water Users Hydropower
Lake Malawi and Operation Strategy
Hydrology (49 years simulated record)
Climate change affected hydrology
Population growth (increase in water demands)
Environmental flows
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

10. Hydrology Input Hydrology is most critical input
Model configured at WRU scale
Monthly simulated hydrology, 1960 – Lumped conceptual model.
Does not include very low flows during first part of century!!
Rainfall and evaporation from Atkins 2011 study
Same hydrology used as basis for licensing project
Validation checks at major sites on main Shire
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

11. External Scenario Influences
External Scenario Influences can be defined for different Planning Options:
Climate Change pathways - how will climate change affect the hydrology of the basin i.e. available water?
Population Growth Rates - how much water will be needed in future?
Environmental Flow Requirements - How much water should be reserved for the environment in the tributaries?
Level of Upstream Development - How much consumptive water development will take place above Lake Malawi, i.e. reduce inflows to the lake?
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

12. Result Indicators Indicator Name
Tool calculates indicator results based on model input and output
Indicator Name
Reliability and amount of water supplied (Irrigation, Water supply, Other)
Annual energy production from Hydropower
Effectiveness of supplying environmental flow requirements (Wet, Dry, Annual)
Sustainability of Groundwater Use
Average annual Lake Malawi water level
Average annual flow into Elephant Marshes
Annual net financial benefits (for different investment types)
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

13. Evaluating Different Planning Options Interpreting Results
Duration curves of key outputs, extract values for determination of indicators
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14. Planning Option Analysis
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15. Planning Options and Investments
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16. New Investments
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17. Planning Options and Investments
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18. Run the Model
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19. Summary Indicator Results
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20. WRU Indicator Results
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21. Strategy Weightings and Basin Score (1)
How can we assign importance to indicators?
A Basin Score is calculated from results based on Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA)
The importance of different themes can be emphasized by specifying a ‘Weight’ for groups of indicators
Water Resources Development
Environmental Sustainability
Economic Returns
Other Indicators 25
100 40 15 25 30
100 15 50 20
100
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

22. Strategy Weightings and Basin Score (2)
The importance of different Indicator scores within a group can also be emphasized can be emphasized by specifying a ‘Weight’ for groups of indicators
For example, Water Resources Development
'Irrigation' Water Use Development
'Domestic Water Supply' Development
'Other' Water Use Development 30 50 20
100 60 30 10
100 ?
100
SRBMP COMPONENT A1

23. Strategy Weightings and Basin Score (3)
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24. Basin Score
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25. Summary and conclusions
Planning options combine investments and external scenario influences
Technical model simulations, but simplified user interface that does not require extensive training
Key indicators are calculated which include risk based outputs
Relative importance of indicators and themes can be adjusted to help interpret planning option results
MCA weighting of indicators to compare planning options
Tool installer accessible from Knowledge Portal
Thank you
SRBMP COMPONENT A1