1. NTMA Business Conditions with an NTMA Update
Date: September 29 , 2016
Presenter: Dave Tilstone, NTMA President

2. NTMA Business Conditions Report
NTMA Business Condition data is from the report period ending 06/30/2016
Summary bar charts are based on 117 Surveys submitted by NTMA members
Presentation includes the national and your CENTRAL SOUTHWEST (AR, LA, OK, TX, NM, CO) Region
Please participate in the current Business Conditions Survey, for the 6-months ending 12/31/2016. Survey links were ed to members on 08/06/16

3. NTMA Business Conditions Report
General Comments
May 2015 to June 2016 were very challenging for manufacturing and NTMA membership
Oil and Gas Industry impacted most with many NTMA members at % of prior year levels
PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) down in August to 49.4% after 5 months of expansion (>50% indicates expansion)
NTMA Business Conditions Summary ending June 2016
23% of respondents were very good to excellent
22% of respondents were good
55% of respondents with a poor to fair response BUT
44% of respondents expect moderate to substantial increase
Economic forecast is strong for Q3 and Q4 as well as most of 2017! Don’t miss the update at the Fall Conference!!!!!

4. NTMA Business Conditions Report
2016 Q3, Q4 and 2017 Optimism
Aero, auto and medical industries expected to be the best industry segments.
Auto production may have “peaked” in 2015; offering many new incentives to move inventory
Heavy truck, oil and gas, mining expected to be weak
IMTS visitors > 115,600 with many exhibitors reporting strong sales; not a record but strong leading indicator that OEM’s and their suppliers (including NTMA members I met on Tech Tours) are investing in capital equipment

5. NTMA Business Conditions Report
I mentioned earlier that the first half of 2016 was challenging for many of our members. You’ll see from this graph that responses were as follows: Very Good to Excellent for only 23% of respondents, while business conditions were considered Good by 22% of respondents. That leaves nearly 55% of respondents with a Poor to Fair response but many are optimistic about the second half of this year.

6. NTMA Business Conditions Report
As noted in my earlier slide, 44% of respondents indicated that business conditions during the second half of 2016 are expecting moderate to substantial increases in their businesses.

7. NTMA Business Conditions Report
The Central Southwest region results for Jan to June were less favorable than the national results with respondents reporting business conditions being very good and 28% versus the national results of 40%. Quotation activity was reported to be high in your region with shipments and profits remaining flat with the second half of Perhaps this is why only 14% reported poor business conditions while national results were 17%.

8. NTMA Business Conditions Report
Your region is more optimistic about the second half of 2016 with 93% of the respondents expecting a moderate increase in business or remaining the same versus the national results of 72%. Perhaps the most optimistic sign within the region is that only 7% of the regional respondents expect a moderate decrease with the national results indicating 21% expecting a moderate decrease.

9. NTMA 2016 Update
NTMA members and the association were challenged with weak and fluctuating business conditions since May 2015
Hardest hit were oil and gas – N Texas Chapter lost 27 members
Extended payment terms to members in need
Recruitment/retention of membership impacted ~ $200,000
Affinity programs and sponsorships also declined ~$220,000
Continued investment in chapter/membership support, NRL and NTMA U – 2016 investment > $600,000

10. 2017 Budget – Challenging but Exciting
NTMA 2017 Update
2017 Budget – Challenging but Exciting
Continue investments in chapter/membership support, the NRL and NTMA U
Reinvigorating the Grainger program – metalworking pilots combined with targeted marketing for MRO
Strategic initiatives established to attract and grow membership
Work collaboratively with other associations addressing industry opportunities and challenges
Minimize the expected budget deficit while still growing the association

11. NTMA Business Conditions Report
Thank you for your time and attention. On behalf of myself, the EC members and all of the NTMA staff, we wish you a prosperous 2016 and record 2017!