1. What Big Change Looks Like: High School Graduates in the West through 2032
AT THE COLLEGE DOOR
Thursday, February 9, 2017
#Knocking2016

2. Agenda High School Graduate Trends So what? Now what? Q & A
Peace Bransberger, Senior Research Analyst, WICHE
So what? Now what?
Rachelle Sharpe, Acting Executive Director, Washington Student Achievement Council
Q & A

3.
Report
State Profiles
Download Data

4. U.S. High School Graduates
The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade
The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population
Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share

5. U.S. High School Graduates
3.56
Public & Nonpublic
Graduates
Million
NCES data through SY , WICHE Knocking at the College Door 2016 for SY to

6. U.S. High School Graduates
Projections
3.44M
3.56M ('25)
3.30M
White
Hispanic
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private Schools

7. White HSGs in Decline
Change from SY

8. Hispanics Are the Primary Growth Engine
Change from SY

9. Steady Increase of Asian/Pac. Is. HSGs
Change from SY

10. Black HSGs Decline Slightly
Change from SY

11. Significant Regional Variation

12. Significant Regional Variation
Total Public and Private High School Graduates

13. The West Tracks the National trend 30% of the Nation’s graduates
Cedes position as #1 producer of Hispanic graduates to the South by 2025, but remains #1 producer of Asian/Pac. Isl. grads

14. West Region High School Graduates
Projections
862K ('24)
832K
789K

15. West Region High School Graduates
Change from SY
(thousands)
278 Hispanic
86 Asian/Pac. Isl.
14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
42 Black
54 Private Schools
356 White

16. High School Graduates by State
West Region
821K / year on average
4% by then 8% by
Non-White 3% to 57% of Public Total
Alaska
7,900 on average
Non-White  5% to 45% of Total
Arizona
66,900 on average, 14% by ‘32
Non-White  3% to 55% of Total
California
426,400 on average, 14% by ‘32 Non-White  5% to 74% of Total

17. High School Graduates by State
Colorado
58,000 on average
Non-White  2% to 38% of Total
Hawaii
14,600 on average
Non-White  3% to 89% of Total
Idaho
21,000 on average
Non-White  8% to 26% of Total
Montana
10,000 on average
Non-White  5% to 18% of Total
Nevada
24,700 on average, 12% by ‘32
Non-White  8% to 60% of Total
New Mexico
20,200 on average,15% by ‘32
Non-White  6% to 77% of Total

18. High School Graduates by State
North Dakota
8,900 on average
Non-White  20% to 32% of Total
Oregon
36,500 on average, 7% by ‘32
Non-White  3% to 30% of Total
South Dakota
9,200 on average
Non-White  14% to 26% of Total
Utah
39,600 on average
Non-White  3% to 21% of Total
Washington
71,800 on average
Non-White  10% to 41% of Total
Wyoming
6,200 on average
Non-White  5% to 19% of Total

19. Traditional & Nontraditional Age Students
18-24 year olds Full-time Part-time y.o and other
IPEDS, Fall Enrollments by Age & Status,

20. Traditional Age Students by Race/Ethnicity
Washington’s Class of 2014, Postsecondary Enrollment
U.S. Recent High School Completers,
Enrolled in 2- or 4-year College, 2014
52%
Bottom 20% Income
64%
Middle 60%
81%
Top 20%
Two-year
Four-year
85%
68%
63%
62%
Washington Student Achievement Council, Strategic Action Plan, and U.S. Dept. of Education, Digest of Education Statistics

21. College Students from Where?
Fall st-year, 1st-time Students
% Non-resident
Hispanics
Least Likely to Go Out of State
White
Hispanic
IPEDS, Fall Enrollment, (from and NPSAS:12, Citizen & resident alien students, 24 y.o. or younger.

22. Washington Attainment Goals by 2023
July 2016
Washington Attainment Goals by 2023
Rachelle Sharpe
Acting Executive Director
Washington Student Achievement Council
There are many other ways that we could look at these trends. But I hope that this overview provides some evidence of the “big change” that is underway. Before I turn it over to Rachelle to talk about Washington’s strategic plan – about how to tackle the changing times -- I will pause for any burning questions about the projections.
[QUESTIONS]

23. Statewide attainment goals by 2023
July 2016
Statewide attainment goals by 2023
Ensure our residents can compete for the best jobs in Washington.
100% of adults* will have a high school diploma or equivalent.
At least 70% of adults* will have a postsecondary credential.
The ten-year Roadmap outlined the goals adopted by the 2014 Legislature.
*Adults in Washington aged

24. Further education leads to prosperity
Living wage employment.
Higher labor force participation.
Lower unemployment.

25. Attainment is unevenly distributed
Washington Student Achievement Council
Educational Attainment of Washington Residents Aged 25-44  
Source: WSAC staff analysis of ACS year (September 2016)
Students from racial and ethnic minority populations represent an increasing share of Washington’s high school population.
However, attainment gaps persist for certain populations.
Hispanic population is overrepresented among those with less than a high school diploma and underrepresented at all other levels of educational attainment.
Black, American Indian, and Pacific Islander populations are also underrepresented among college graduates.

26. Source: A Skilled and Educated Workforce 2015
Projected workforce needs require substantial increases in all credentials.
Washington Student Achievement Council
*Mid level: A year or more of college credit including Associates degrees.
Source: A Skilled and Educated Workforce 2015

27. Education is critical to a thriving economy
Over 3/4 of job openings in Washington require education beyond high school.
The state goals reflect the needs in Washington and are consistent with analysis by national experts.
Lumina Foundation and the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.
..and found that ¾ of job openings in Washington will require education beyond HS. 
*Mid level: A year or more of college credit including Associates degrees.
Source: A Skilled and Educated Workforce 2015

28. Growth required to achieve the goals
Big strides are needed to reach our goals
Washington Student Achievement Council
Growth required to achieve the goals
To meet the goal and address population growth, 500,000 additional adults would need to complete a credential.
90,000 would be required to keep pace with population growth.
80,000 could result from Strategic Action Plan investments.

29. Sustained commitment leads to results
Stable funding
Affordability
Quality institutions
Well-funded institutions
Provide quality instruction and student support to improve graduation rates.
Stable state financial aid
Helps low-income students afford college.
Predictable tuition
Helps families plan for college costs.
Enables institutions plan longer term.
Sustained commitment from the Legislature leads to positive results.

30. Advisory Group Proposed Work Plan
Establish a Vision statement
Reaffirm the state’s workforce needs
Develop interim targets
Region
Sector
Workforce Industry
Describe leading indicators and performance measures
College Readiness
Postsecondary Participation
College Completion
Affordable Pathways
Workforce Demands
Leverage data systems to evaluate outcomes
Private institutions
Certificates and apprenticeships
Mix of credentials based on employer needs
Sector and regional contributions
Describe current efforts and strategies

31. Thank You Peace Bransberger Rachelle Sharpe/
Rachelle Sharpe /