1. Climate change and climate change adaptation An introduction Trainer team: XX XX ‘Date’

2. Imprint
As a federally owned enterprise, GIZ supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development.
Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg Eschborn, Germany T F
Contact E I
GIZ Climate Protection Programme
Responsible Ilona Porsché, GIZ; Michael Scholze, GIZ
Authors Jennifer Frankel-Reed, Barbara Fröde-Thierfelder, Ilona Porsché
Contributions by Alfred Eberhardt, Mark Svendsen, Lea Herberg, Martin Baumgart, Udo Höggel, Michael Scholze, Alexander Fröde, Nana Künkel, members of the OECD Task Team on Climate Change and Development Co-operation
Coordination Ilona Porsché, Barbara Fröde-Thierfelder
Photo credits © GIZ/Climate Protection Programme and Claudia Altmann, Dirk Ostermeier, Florian Kopp, Georg Buchholz, Ira Olaleye, Jörg Böthling, Manuel Hauptmann, Markus Kirchgessner, Michael Gajo, Michael Netzhammer, Nicole Herzog, Peter Korneffel, Richard Lord, Robert Heine, Rüdiger Behrens, Ulrich Scholz, Ursula Meissner, Uwe Rau
Design Ira Olaleye
Articles written by named authors do not necessarily reflect the views of the editors.

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4. Overview Climate change Adaptation to climate change Greenhouse effect
Emissions
Scenarios
Climate change impacts
The development concern
Adaptation to climate change
Definition
Costs
Operationalising adaptation

5. Climate change

6. Message: Greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon without which there would be no life on earth.
Source: Climate Change The Physical Science Basis. IPCC Working Group 1. Contribution to the 4. AR

7. CO2 concentration over time
Oct 2010: 388 ppm
Message: There have been changes in the CO2 concentration over the last 800,000 years. However, the change within the last century exceeds all.
World Development report p 4

8. The carbon cycle: stocks and fluxes
Message:
Through changes in land use and burning of fossil fuels, the natural carbon cycle is being disturbed; leading to more greenhouse gas emissions; increased greenhouse effect causes global warming and significant impacts on human well-being and ecological sustainability as well as economic activities.
Source: World Development report Focus A: The science of climate change. Adapted from IPCC. 2007

9. Global greenhouse gas emissions: composition
There are several GHG, which are calculated in
CO2 equivalents
Carbon dioxide (CO2) = 1
Methane (CH4) = 21
Nitrous oxide (N2O) = 310
Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)-134a = 1,300
(used in mobile source air conditioning)
Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva

10. Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector
Source: Stern, N The Economics of Climate Change. World Bank Minding the Stock

11. Trying to look into the future Emission scenarios
A2 – heterogeneous world, high population, slow economic development and technological change
A1T - very intensive development, population peak mid century
A1T new technologies with use of non-fossil energy sources
A1Fl fossil intensive energy supply
B1 – same population as A1, rapid changes in economic structures towards a service and information economy, introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies
Draw attention to vast differences between scenarios.
Scenario = A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g. greenhouse gases, aerosols) based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and socio-economic development, technological change) and their key relationships (IPCC 2007).
SRES = Special report on Emission Scenarios 2001 (3rd IPCC AR)
The SRES Scenarios were also used for the AR4 in 2007, and have been subject to discussion about whether emissions growth since 2000 makes these scenarios obsolete.
» For more information on the scenarios, see Training Manual Glossary.
Climate change and development are integrally linked. Development (fossil-based) is a driver of GHG emissions causing climate change, the impacts/results of climate change affect development opportunities, and solving climate change requires a shift in the development pathways and methods.
Emissions are dominated by electricity consumption, heat production, transportation, manufacturing, industrial production, and agriculture. Reducing these emissions requires efficiency improvements, renewable energy, transportation planning and agriculture and land management.
Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva, adapted by CDE

12. Greenhouse gas emissions by region (2004)
With this slide, you may want to engage in the discussion of ‘global climate justice’, the ’polluter pays principle’ or just highlight that countries with high consumption and few people (US, Canada) emit about the same amount as countries with limited consumption and lots of people (South Asia).
Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva

13. Example: Projected temperature changes – scenario
Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva

14. Example: Projected temperature changes – spatial distribution
For 2090; reference period: 1980 – 1999
Highlight unequal distributions of impact
Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva

15. Projected impact on human well-being
Climate change impacts jeopardize the inputs to development and people’s ability to benefit from and sustain development gains.
Climate change poses risks to basic poverty reduction building blocks like
clean water and sanitation
food security
infrastructure for economic development
health
gender equality
natural resources, etc.
The IPCC projects that 1.1 – 3.2 billion people could be at risk of water stress in the 2080s. (AR4, WGII, Ch 3, p194) .
The economic and human toll of disasters is expected to rise.
CC poses a threat to meeting and sustaining Millennium Development Goals, and threatens to trap millions in poverty if preventive efforts are not made to ensure productive livelihoods and access to social services.
Source: Climate Change Synthesis report IPCC. Geneva

16. Example: Climate change and the development concern (1)
Thailand
Kiribati
Climate change is now as well as a future concern. Some examples:
(These stories come from a project called Climate Witness)
Thailand ‘In Thailand, we cannot predict the weather any more. Normally, winter begins in mid-November, but now it only starts in December or January. You could say that there is no longer winter. Summer temperatures are increasing, too. It’s really hot and getting hotter.
The rainy season has become longer, often encroaching into the winter months. And the rain is more intense.’
Kiribati ‘As sea level continues to rise in Kiribati, saltwater affects the quality of water in wells, floods taro patches, gardens, and puts stress on plants and trees that are so important to our life and culture. Pandanus trees are used to build houses, for medicine, food and clothing, but they are dying from saltwater.’
Argentina ‘In recent years, the rain has increased. La Picasa lagoon used to cover around 10,000 hectares but by 2004, it had tripled in area. The lagoon kept growing until it flooded our fields, our homes, our production. The water took away what always has characterized this region: agriculture and farming. The road to Chile and our railway is still inundated and the lagoon has to be circumvented by a makeshift carriage way.’
Argentina
Source: WWF Climate Witness:

17. Example: Climate change and the development concern (2)
Thailand
Kiribati
Climate change poses threats to many fundamental components of sustainable development:
Livelihoods
Agricultural production
Disaster prevention
Security of assets and settlements
Transportation and infrastructure
Access and connectivity to public services
Culture and tradition
In many countries, primary economic sectors are at risk as resources are affected by climate change. For example, fish stocks are declining off the coast of Namibia, Angola and South Africa as the Benguela Current shifts. In other regions, the loss of cold winters creates the conditions for pests to thrive. In the US and Canada, dead pine trees killed by beetles present a serious wildfire concern (not to mention revenue and ecological problems). Transboundary resource management is becoming an national security and humanitarian crisis prevention concern: for example, water allocation in the Nile Basin, and flood management and seasonal migration in the Mekong and Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Deltas of Southeast and South Asia. The cooperation of many countries will be essential and challenging.
Climate change also brings some positive opportunities for development.
Some areas may see improved agriculture conditions or future climate conditions may support a switch to higher income crops
High latitudes may get more favorable climatic conditions, for example, warmer winters, and a lower demand for heating
New and additional financing for low-carbon and climate-resilient development is being raised, including investments in scientific capacity in developing countries.
Argentina
Source: WWF Climate Witness:

18. Example: Climate change and the development concern (3)
Bangladesh Egypt Tanzania Uruguay Nepal Fiji
Total aid flows in millions USD,
~30 – 60% of ODA potentially affected by climate change
Aid flows affected by climate risk in red
Shaded areas indicate uncertainty.
Fiji
Source: OECD, Bridge Over Troubled Waters (2005)

19. Adaptation to climate change

20. Defining adaptation
Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.
Climate change impacts
Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation, etc.
Greenhouse gas emissions
Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC
Adaptation: reduce vulnerability to CC impacts, reduce losses
Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies
Both mitigation and adaptation reduce the risks of climate change.
Mitigation aims to limit climate change itself, by reducing the emissions of GHGs, for instance by promoting energy efficiency, the use of renewable energy such as solar and wind power, and avoiding deforestation.
Adaptation consists of deliberate actions undertaken to reduce the adverse consequences, as well as to harness any beneficial opportunities.
The greatest potential for most low-emissions developing countries, and their obligation under the UNFCCC, is to manage risks through adaptation. However, mitigation can bring many ‘co-benefits’ like environmental quality and public health, and rural empowerment, depending on the approach.
Source: UNDP

21. Adaptation – a case for urgency
Source: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss academics, 2007

22. Costs: Estimated adaptation costs and investment requirements in developing countries
Source
Estimate
(US$ bn/yr)
World Bank as revised by the Stern Review (2006)
4 – 37
Oxfam (2007)
8 – 33
UNFCCC (2007)
28 – 67 (in 2030)
UNDP: HDR 2007 – 08
86 (in 2016)
World Bank (2009)
75 – 100 (2010 – 2050)
The additional estimated amount of investment and financial flows needed in 2030 to address climate change is large compared with the funding currently available under the Convention and its Kyoto Protocol, but small in relation to estimated global gross domestic product (GDP) ( per cent) and global investment ( per cent) in 2030.
The UNFCCC’s findings are supported by the 2006 Stern Review, which noted that the cost of adapting to climate change will be high. Stern states that adaptation costs are hard to quantify because of uncertainty. However, it makes the following estimates of adaptation costs:
Developed world: $10-$150 billion a year
Developing world: tens of billions a year
Source:
Comments
World Bank: Investment to ‘climate proof’ all adaptation-related activities in developing countries
Oxfam: Costs of urgent priorities identified in NAPAs extrapolated for all developing countries
UNFCCC: Investment needs for adaptation activities in developing countries in 2030—all sectors, private and public
UNDP HDR: ‘New and additional’ finance for adaptation to protect progress toward the MDGs and prevent post 2015 reversals in human development

23. Costs: Estimates by sector
Global
(billion USD)
Share in developing countries
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
(production, processing, R&D) 14
50%
Water supply
(water supply infrastructure) 11
80%
Human health
(diarrheal disease, malnutrition and malaria) 5
100%
Coastal zone
(beach nourishment and dykes)
40%
Infrastructure
(new infrastructure adaptation)
8-130
25%
Source: UNFCCC 2007

24. Operationalising adaptation

25. What are adaptation options?
Policy
Improve regulations, adjust incentive system, enhance participation of affected communities
Infrastructure
For example: Water control – construct dykes, improve climate-resilient infrastructure
Capacity development
Improve monitoring of sea temperature, erosion rates; improve management skills
Research
Monitoring for policy advise, climate-resilient breeds/species
Good practices
Soil conservation, to improve agricultural yields, keep ecosystem functions intact
Adaptation measures can vary in their
timing (anticipatory vs. reactive; ex ante vs. ex post),
scope (short-term vs. long-term; localised vs. regional),
purposefulness (autonomous vs. planned; passive vs. active) and
adapting agent (private vs. public; societies vs. natural systems).
Source: Adapted from USAID 2007

26. Who acts and how?
Public sector responsibilities: setting rules and regulations for public assets, public services, public goods, social protections, preventing conflict and managing migration
Individuals and communities: household preparedness, autonomous adaptation, share losses
Private sector: integrate climate risks into project design and services (climate-resilient investments)
International cooperation: financial responsibility, resilient ODA, capacity development
Source: Adapted from OECD Policy Guidance

27. Difference between business-as-usual development and adaptation
A continuum:
Human development and vulnerability reduction  response capacity  managing climate change risks  confronting climate change
» You may want to consider doing the action learning (see Trainer Handbook, chapter 2e on this)
The discussion about ‘what is adaptation’ and how it differs from development is ongoing. There is no broad agreement on this question, but there is an evolving understanding about what makes adaptation different from business as usual development.
A stocktaking of efforts labeled by their proponents as ‘climate change adaptation’ revealed a continuum of efforts of different types:
At one end of the continuum were vulnerability-oriented efforts that overlap almost completely with traditional development practice. These activities may take no account of the specific effects anticipated on account of climate change.
At the opposite end, activities were designed to target distinct climate change impacts, and may fall outside the realm of development as traditionally defined.
The message:
Adaptation is generally the responsibility of development. However, there are some climate change risks that development does not typically address (sea level rise, glacial lake outbursts, transboundary resource conflicts, etc.).
Good development practice now means considering climate change.
Source: WRI 2007

28. A systematic and strategic approach to adaptation
Screening
brief check if, what and where (M1)
Analysis
Detailed assessment of need for adaptation action (M3)
What are adaptation options? (M4)
Which are the priorities? (M5)
How can we track changes and learn from experiences? (M6)
Prepare implementation
Develop according capacities (M7)
Financing
Implementation
4-step approach can be done at national, sectoral, local and project level
Indicate that climate information (M2) is necessary at all steps, especially from analysis onwards

29. Addressing climate change improves development effectiveness
Cost-effective: Ignoring climate risks can be costly. Prevention through adaptation is cheaper.
Integrated: Adaptation looks at multiple stressors including climate and non-climate, and can prevent ‘maladaptation’.
Flexible: Adaptation builds institutional and technical capacity to adjust to risks over time as they evolve, improving flexibility.
Source: Adapted from UNDP

30. Example: Comparing prevention vs
Example: Comparing prevention vs. reconstruction costs of infrastructure in the Caribbean
Infrastructure
Deepwater Port (Dominica)
Norman Manley Law School (Jamaica)
Troumasse Bridge
(St. Lucia)
Grand Palazzo Hotel (St. Thomas)
Original project cost
57,000,000
685,000
185,000
28,000,000
Reconstruction costs after disaster
2,310,000
28,800
32,000
5,308,000
RMNH costs as % of original construction costs
11.5%
1.9%
10.8%
0.1%
RMNH costs as % of reconstruction costs
28.0%
45.0%
62.4%
0.5%
Illustrates that adaptation can be cost effective if integrated at the design phase.
Four infrastructure projects in Caribbean island countries are compared by the proportion of project costs and reconstruction costs that would have been necessary to prevent damage using Risk Management of Natural Hazards (RMNH) measures.
Message: Prevention costs in each example are a fraction of reconstruction costs. Also, as the project cost increases, the proportion that would have gone toward anticipatory natural hazard risk management becomes smaller.
RMNH = Risk management of natural hazards approach
Amounts given in 2005 US Dollars
Source: Adapted from Bettencourt et al. 2006

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