1. Minerals and metals for a low Carbon Future: the need for ‘Climate Smart Mining’ Kirsten Hund
Sr. Mining Specialist
World Bank

2. Without metals there would simply be no low carbon future possible…
One 3-MW turbine contains
335 tons of steel.
4.7 tons of copper.
1,200 tons of concrete (cement and aggregates)
3 tons of aluminum.
2 tons of rare earth elements.
aluminum.
zinc.
molybdenum
(NW Mining Association)

3. Electric hybrid cars use twice as much copper as non-hybrid cars
the green economy is now driving demand for new minerals & metals – electric car example. The FT this week reported that Lithium is growing at 10% per year. Doubling every 7 years!
This is Kiira Ev, the first electric car of Africa, Electric hybrid cars use twice as much copper as non-hybrid cars, and the average hybrid car consumes 19 major mineral groups sourced in over 50 countries; including the above noted Rare Earth Minerals

4. The Growing Role of Minerals for a Low carbon future
Examines the implications of changing material requirements for the mining/metals industry as a result of low carbon energy future.
How can resource rich developing countries best position themselves to take advantage of the evolving commodities market ?

5. IEA’s ETP 2016 Scenarios
IEA’s Energy Technology Perspective Scenarios For Electricity Installed Capacity
Does not look at material implications
Source: IEA ETP 2016

6. Example: Change in metal demand from Solar PV
The report clearly shows that the technologies assumed to populate the clean energy shift - wind, solar, hydrogen and electricity systems - are in fact significantly MORE material intensive in their composition than current traditional fossil-fuel-based energy supply systems.
Precise estimates on the actual demand for metals depend on at least two independent variables:
The extent to which the global community of nations actually succeeds in meeting its long-term Paris climate goals and
The nature of intra-technology choices. In other words, for example, not only is it a function of how many wind turbines, solar panels and low emission road vehicles will be deployed, but which wind, solar technologies and zero/low emission vehicles will dominate.
Source: WB Analysis
Note: Values are derived from mean value of ‘metal per MW’ demand

7. Many resources will come from developing countries

8. Example: Mapping Critical metals: 1: Bauxite/ Aluminium
Bauxite Production and Reserves for 2015
(Thousand Metric Tons)
Mine Production
Reserves
AUSTRALIA
80,000
6,200,000
CHINA
60,000
830,000
MALAYSIA
21,200
40,000
INDIA
19,200
590,000
GUINEA
17,700
7,400,000
JAMAICA
10,700
2,000,000
GREECE
6,600
250,000
RUSSIA
200,000
KAZAKHSTAN
5,200
160,000
SURINAME
2,200
580,000
BRAZIL
2,000
2,600,000
GUYANA
1,700
850,000
VENEZUELA
1,500
320,000
VIETNAM
1,100
2,100,000
INDONESIA
1,000
1,000,000
USA
N/A
20,000
OTHER COUNTRIES
8,500
2,400,000
TOTAL
274,000
28,000,000
Developing Countries % of Bauxite Production represents 52%, without China, 30%.
Developing Countries % of Bauxite Reserves represents 65%, without China 63%.

9. Example 2: Mapping Critical metals: Manganese
Manganese Production and Reserves for 2015
(Thousand metric tons)
Production
Reserves
SOUTH AFRICA
6,200
200,000
CHINA
3,000
44,000
AUSTRALIA
2,900
91,000
GABON
1,800
22,000
BRAZIL
1,000
50,000
INDIA
950
52,000
MALAYSIA
400
N/A
GHANA
390
13,000
KAZAKHSTAN
5,000
UKRAINE
140,000
MEXICO
240
BURMA
100
USA
OTHER COUNTRIES
740
SMALL
TOTAL
18,000
620,000
Developing countries % of manganese production 79%, without China 63%
Developing countries % of manganese reserves 54%, without China, 47%

10. The carbon footprint of Mineral extraction and metal production needs to be considered

11. By investing in clean energy..
WBG Mining and Climate Change-Indaba 2017

12. By Contributing to Landscape Management ( including infrastructure planning) and Forest Conservation

13. Climate Change is also impacting mining
Adaptation is Needed

14. And Long term Strategic (and Spatial) Planning
Based on reliable and robust data ( which are lacking in most developing countries)

15. Conclusions
Meeting the Paris climate target of not exceeding 2C global warming over this century will require a radical restructuring of energy supply and transmission systems globally;
The technologies assumed to populate the clean energy shift are significantly MORE material intensive in their composition than current traditional/fossil fuel based energy supply systems
The form in which metal demand will increase depends on both inter-technology choices as well as intra-technology choices within particular technologies; Need for a flexible approach
Demand for Key base metals under a low carbon energy shift will increase : copper, silver, aluminum (bauxite), nickel, zinc, and possibly platinum
Rare earth elements demand increase: neodymium, indium and lithium among others;

16. Conclusions
More production will have to come from Resource rich developing countries to address demand in relevant commodities:
Need for robust Geological data
Increased governance and environmental management
Factoring in mineral demand and associated footprint implications into climate change strategies
A Dialogue between the Mining and Metals Community and the Climate Change/ Sustainable Development Community on developing a coherent approach is needed