1. Part 1: The Conceptual Framework Hazard → Disaster Risk/Probability of a Disaster

2. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

3. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

4. Hazard Anything that may pose a danger
Natural or human-made phenomenon or mixture of both
Has the potential to adversely affect human health, property, activity, and/or the environment
“potential energy”
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

5. Hazards Natural Human-made (anthropogenic) Mixed (natural + human)
Seismic
Climatic
Infectious
diseases
Mixed (natural + human)
Health related
Human-made (anthropogenic)
Technological
Stored chemicals
Unstable structure
Unexploded bomb
Material transport
Potential Conflict
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

6. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

7. Event
An occurrence that has the potential to affect living things and/or the environment
The actualization of the hazard
Primary (precipitating) event: event responsible for initiating the damage; example-Hurricane Katrina
Secondary event: events that result from the primary event: example: flood of New Orleans as a result of Hurricane Katrina
Release of energy
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

8. event
hazard
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

9. Events Natural Human-made (anthropogenic) Seismic Technological
Earthquake
Volcanic
Tsunami
Climatic
Wind
Precipitation
Lightning
Temperatures
Erosion
Drought
Desertification
Floods
Human-made (anthropogenic)
Technological
Substance release
Transport
Structural failure
Explosions
Fire
Environmental interference
Conflict
Armed (war, terrorism, complex)
Unarmed (sanctions, embargo)
Mixed
Landslide
Epidemic
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

10. Characteristics of Events
Onset
Scope
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

11. Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

12. Components of scope Amplitude: measure of power
Flood crest, storm surge height, Richter scale
Intensity: amplitude/sample time
Rainfall/hour
Scale: intensity in an area (intensity x area)
Incidence of disease in county, hectares flooded
Magnitude: total energy of the event
(scale x duration)
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

13. Characteristics of Events Scope
Amplitude
Time interval
Intensity
Area
Scale
Total Duration
Magnitude
(total energy)
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

14. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Risk Modification
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

15. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

16. Damage
Harm or injury impairing the value or usefulness of something, or the health or normal function of persons
The negative result of an event on structures
Humans and other living things
Human-built structure
Environment
Adverse consequence of energy release
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

17. event
damage
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

18. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

19. Absorbing capacity
The ability to absorb the free energy of an event without sustaining damage
Levees
Building codes
Reforestation
Boarding windows
Bomb shelters
Bullet proof vests
Armor
Air bags
Mitigation is anything done to increase absorbing capacity
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

20. Relationship between Damage and Absorbing Capacity
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

21. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

22. Change in Function Damage can result in a change in function
Broken pipe leads to loss of water supply
Damaged bridge leads to loss of means of transportation
Broken leg leads to loss of mobility
Collapsed building leads to loss of shelter
Flooded field leads to loss of food supply
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

23. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

24. Buffering Capacity
The ability of a society to cope with damage and to function despite damage
The ability to maintain essential functions for a change in available resources
Surplus
Evacuation
Emergency Medical Services
Shelters
Caches of supplies
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

25. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

26. Disaster
A serious disruption of the functioning of a society, causing widespread human, material, and/or environmental losses, which exceed the ability of an affected society to cope using only its own resources
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

27. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Risk 4
Responses
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

28. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Preparedness
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Responses
Risk 4
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP
Resilience

29. Preparedness Preparedness = risk management =
absorbing capacity + buffering capacity + response capacity
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

30. The Language of Disaster
Hazard
Risk 1
Modification
Event
Risk 2
Absorbing Capacity
Damage
Preparedness
Vulnerability
Risk 3
Buffering Capacity
Change in Function
Responses
Risk 4
Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

31. Figure 3.4
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

32. The Language of Disaster
Must distinguish between
Hazard
Event
Damage
Disaster
Their at at least four (4) different risks (probabilities) that comprise the risk for a disaster
Must separate
Absorbing Capacity
Buffering Capacity
Response
The Event IS NOT the Disaster!!!!!!
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

33. What is depicted below? A. Hazard B. Event C. Damage D. Disaster
E. Change in function
E. Change in Function
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

34. What is depicted below? A. Hazard B. Event C. Damage D. Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

35. What is depicted below? A. Hazard B. Event C. Damage D. Disaster
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

36. What is depicted below? A. Response B. Absorbing Capacity
C. Buffering Capacity
D. Disaster
B. Absorbing Capacity
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

37. Which of the following was a health disaster?
A Northridge Earthquake
B Oklahoma City bombing
C World Trade Center attack
D US anthrax letter attacks
E. All of the above
D US anthrax letter attacks
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP

38. Task 1 Tables to complete Exercise 1
A few participants will present results to group for discussion
Birnbaum, ML; O’Rourke, AP